Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PK 4

Maury - #65
Brent - #48
Ludlow-Taylor - #52
Payne - #20
Hyde-Addison - #36
Shirley Chisholm - #21

LN here:

Maury - no offer
Brent - no offer
Ludlow-Taylor - no offer
Payne - #20 - unlikely - they've only gone that deep into their waitlist once (two years ago). So maybe a 20% shot, and it def won't be until August or later.
Hyde-Addison - #36 - You have a decent shot here. They've gone that deep into their waitlist three of the past five years. I'll note though that the two years they didn't were the last two years. So if something changed, you're SOL. Otherwise, 60%? Given the trend I'd probably think you've got about a 1 in 3 shot.
Shirley Chisholm - #21 - Assuming English dominant - You've got a good shot here. They've gone that deep three out of the past five years, including the past two years. So, 60%+ shot?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PRE-K 3

Garrison Elementary School In-boundary Waitlisted - #7
2 Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #11
3 H.D. Cooke Elementary School Waitlisted - #32
4 Marie Reed Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #111
5 John Lewis Elementary School Waitlisted - #34
6 Bancroft Elementary School - English Dominant Waitlisted - #126
7 Latin American Montessori Bilingual (LAMB) PCS Waitlisted - #210
8 Hyde-Addison Elementary School Waitlisted - #139
9 Seaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #7
10 Military Road Early Learning Center Waitlisted - #5
11 Tubman Elementary School Waitlisted - #36

LN here:

You have a good chance at several of these:

Garrison Elementary School In-boundary Waitlisted - #7: It's likely you'll get a spot here. They've offered more than 7 seats 4 of the past 5 years. So probably an 80% chance.
Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #11: They've offered more than 11 seats 2 out of the past 5 years. So, about a 40% shot.
H.D. Cooke Elementary School Waitlisted - #32: Unlikely, but possible. Last year you would have gotten a slot, but the previous four years, no. Assuming nothing major has changed, I'd say a 20% shot.
Seaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #7: So based on historic data, you'd get a seat here three out of the past five years, or a 60% shot. However, they're moving to a swing space next year, and generally, waitlists move a lot more in those situations, so I'd say it's a much better than 60% shot. Probably 80%+.
Military Road Early Learning Center Waitlisted - #5: You should get a spot here. They've taken at least 11 seats every year.

All the others, you're not going to get an offer from.

Thank you!!! Should I just remove the ones of no chance from my list? Would that immediately help others’ waitlist numbers go down?

You could and it would, but it wouldn’t move anyone into offer territory since you aren’t in offer territory.

Generally my advice is only remove yourself if, knowing what you know now with the match you have right now (not future potential matches even if the odds are good), would you turn down the seat from the school if offered tomorrow. If you’d turn it down no matter what, yes, removing yourself makes sense (will provide very slightly more accurate waitlist signals to all who care, essentially), but if you’d still take an offer, even if it is extremely unlikely to come, I’d stay in the list.

LN here - I did not write the above, but I agree with it whole heartedly. If you know you wouldn't take the seat, save the school a phone call and take yourself off. But DO NOT take yourself off a waitlist because you think your odds are bad! History is NOT destiny. Things change!! You never really know when something crazy might happen - it's literally a lottery. You want the seat? Stay on the waitlist!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Eaton WL #16
Janney WL #16
Murch WL #16
Yu Ying PCS WL #18
Stoddert WL#17
Mann WL #7
Maury WL #24
Hyde-Addison WL #11
Key WL #11
ITDS WL #9

For 1st grade? Predictions?

LN here:

Eaton WL - No offer
Janney WL - No offer
Murch WL - No offer
Yu Ying PCS WL #18 - Small chance. They went this deep into the waitlist four years ago. Less than 20% chance.
Stoddert WL#17 - Small chance. They went this deep into the waitlist two years ago. And they came close the year before that. 20% chance.
Mann WL #7 - A chance. They went this deep into the waitlist four and five years ago, not in the last three years. 30% chance, maybe less.
Maury WL - No offer
Hyde-Addison WL #11 - You should get a spot. They've let in at least this many people every year, and always by August. This is a pretty safe bet.
Key WL #11 - Small chance. They went this deep into the waitlist five years ago. Less than 20% chance.
ITDS WL #9 - You've got a decent chance. They went this deep into the waitlist three out of the past five years, including last year. I'd give you a 60% shot.

[Anonymous]

Hi! Thanks for your predictions! Our waitlist numbers are as followed for fourth grade (no sibling nor in boundary preferences):

Garrison WL# 11
JO Wilson WL# 12
Payne WL# 23
Ross WL# 27
Brent WL# 31

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hardy - 135

They only moved 101 off wait list last year, so aren't my odds just 0?

Is 101 a lot or no? How or why are waitlists moving that much? I guess it just goes to show that the answer to everything is “it depends”

LN here. Ooo the chance to opine.

So yes, it depends, for sure. The short answer is, yes 101 is a lot for a waitlist to move. Very few waitlists move that much.

Generally, there are a few situations where lottery lists move a lot. Entry years (including K, because it's the first guaranteed year) for DCPS boundary schools can often move a bunch. Boundary schools need to take every single person in the boundary who walks through the door wanting a seat, even in, like, January. So they need to be very conservative about how many OOB seats they offer in March. This can often lead to numerous summer (and even fall) waitlist offers as they see how many IB kids enroll.

Another reason you'll see waitlists move a lot is a change in circumstances. Hardy's feeder pattern recently changed (JR to MacArthur), and that can lead to unpredictable enrollment patterns. More people than you expect may turn down an offer, and fewer IB students may choose to enroll when the high school is new (and thus unknown). You can also see this when a school moves to a swing space. You can see that with Brent last year - several grades with significantly higher waitlist movement than usual for Brent.

One final reason I'll mention here (I'm sure there are others) is late-breaking seats. If you have a seat or two open up in early September, and you call through the next 5-10 people on the waitlist (ie, those people with single digit waitlist numbers who maybe had hopes) and don't get a "yes", then you might end up calling people who never thought they had a chance at the school and had long since made their peace and settled in somewhere else - people aren't eager to change their kid's school in October. So sometimes a school may need to call through dozens of waitlist offers to get one or two more butts in seats.

Bottom line, you're right - it depends. Hardy had the first two scenarios happening, so they ended up letting a ton of people off the waitlist.

Helpful perspective. Also makes me curious about other context for charters where boundary isn’t a factor. I don’t think waitlist length and waitlist movement should be *the* signal for whether the school is trending good or bad, but it does make me wonder. Are we all sheep for a reason

LN here.

Yeah, for charters, only the second and third apply. Also, charters can be a bit more aggressive with offers than DCPS boundary schools - if you've got 50 kids, and you want 50 kids next year, and one of them enrolls somewhere else, you can just let in another kid immediately. You don't have to worry about the summer random inbound enrollment.

Personally, I think waitlist length and trend is useful information, though there's a LOT of context. For example, basically ALL charters have shorter waitlists now than they did 5-10 years ago for PK3. In generally, to me that's about how DCPS quality has increased and more and more people are both willing to take a chance on their IB school, and more and more IB schools are at least considered to be potentially good. That shortens charter waitlists, but doesn't actually say anything about any individual charter school. But when you see schools that used to be considered "HRCS" (Highly Regarded Charter Schools) with basically no waitlists in some upper grades (CMI, Two Rivers) that is definitely telling you something.

I would read nothing into waitlist movement as far as school trends. There are WAY too many variables there and it says more about who they happened to call and their situation than the school. That matters for the chance you'll get in, but not how the school is trending, IMHO.

Curious how closely you've looked at changes in waitlist lengths over time. It's something that seems pretty intuitive if you've spent any time looking at the waitlist data, but I haven't really seen the changes quantified anywhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are #8 at DC bilingual for 1st. Any chance?

LN here. Yes. They've made at least that many offers in three of the past five years, and as recently as two years ago, though the overall trend in WL offers is def down. I'd give you a 50/50 shot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When do you think Walls waitlist #1-10 will find out?

LN here. Should get an offer by June, but certainly before school starts, based on historical data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hey LN. This is fun, thanks for doing it.

PreK 4 Waitlists:

DC Bilingual: #43
Shepherd: #21
EL Haynes: #14
LAMB: #27

LN here:

DC Bilingual: #43 - very unlikely. They let this many in five years ago, but no where near this number in the past five years. <10%.
Shepherd: No offer
EL Haynes: #14 - Very, very unlikely. They also let this many in five years ago, but no where near those numbers since. <10%
LAMB: No offer

Anticipate going to your matched school, and if you didn't match, considering picking some schools from the short waitlists dash once that comes out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:pk 4 - 19 at mundo verde calle ocho.

wondering if the expansion there will help at all or if the historic numbers for waitlist movement will hold true

LN here:

This is one where you're really going to want to take a look at the Tableau dash with updated data when it comes out (probably in the next week) because last year they made 15 offers... but only had 17 on the waitlist. Possible that two people took themselves off the waitlist and thus they actually cleared their whole waitlist, which would mean that 17 is basically meaningless - they could have had room for more.

Also - this data is really hard to understand as the number of lottery seats has varied tremendously (3-94 in the past five years!) as has the waitlist length (17-206!) and the total offers made (6-136!) That tells me that things are changing there - you reference an expansion, but I'm not very familiar with this school, so I'm out of the loop on that. As it stands, and especially with then number of waitlist offers being close to your number the last two years (15 and 18) it's really impossible to put even a rough number on this.

If anyone has context to the wildly swinging numbers here, feel free to add it and I can try again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For K, Maury # 22

LN here. This one will be a nail biter. They often let in right around that number - 26, 22, 1, 15, 19 the past five years. So you theoretically would have gotten in one year and MAYBE two years (but sibling preference would have likely hurt you - most K numbers would go up 1 spot at some point because someone's older sibling got in, so whoever had #22 at Maury for K on match day that year probably didn't get an offer if I had to guess). So that would put you at just 20% - as I think there's only one year that #22 would have gotten an offer. BUT with the numbers SO close, it doesn't take much variation to land you a seat. So I'd say more like 30%?

What you really need to mentally prepare yourself for here, I'm sorry to say, is getting to count day with a number <5 and no offer. Heartbreakingly, that's probably your most likely outcome.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For K, Maury # 22

No chance. Over the last 5 years, the maximum waitlist movement was... 2 spots.

LN here. That was not me posting above and it's wildly untrue. See my post up-thread for analysis.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hey LN. This is fun, thanks for doing it.

PreK 4 Waitlists:

DC Bilingual: #43
Shepherd: #21
EL Haynes: #14
LAMB: #27

LN here:

DC Bilingual: #43 - very unlikely. They let this many in five years ago, but no where near this number in the past five years. <10%.
Shepherd: No offer
EL Haynes: #14 - Very, very unlikely. They also let this many in five years ago, but no where near those numbers since. <10%
LAMB: No offer

Anticipate going to your matched school, and if you didn't match, consider picking some schools from the short waitlists dash once that comes out.

No need to wait for the wait-list info to come out. Add yourself to every school you would even vaguely consider. You can reorder them later, you can take yourself off lists if you change your mind. But your wait list spot will never be better by waiting to add yourself.

[Anonymous]

PK4
Bruce Monroe Eng Dominant #6
Tubman #8
Cleveland Eng Dominant #9

[Anonymous]

Stevens ELC PK3- #53
Any chance?!

[Anonymous]

Fourth grade: Nothing, right? Also I would not take Key, I didn't look closely enough at the location.

1 Oyster-Adams Bilingual School (Adams) Waitlisted - #32
2 Lafayette Elementary School Waitlisted - #23
3 Eaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #10
4 Bancroft Elementary School Waitlisted - #8
5 Key Elementary School Waitlisted - #7