Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lottery Nerd, when does tableau get updated with the initial lottery data for this year?

Traditionally, the first or second week of April.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MVP PK3 - 23

Edit: just for fun I'll add that you gave me a 65% chance by October in the other thread.

LN here:

I'd anticipate an offer by early June. You have an EXCELLENT chance of an offer by October, historically, you should always have one. Congrats!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Latin Cooper 5th grade, WL #30. No preferences.

LN here. This is a tough one. Last year, you wouldn't have gotten a seat, but the previous three years, you would have (and before school started!) So one could say a 75% chance - but I think the trend works against you. As the Cooper campus gets established, waitlist movement just keeps getting shorter as the waitlist length gets longer. Miracles happen, but I'd plan for something else.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:for 5th:
Hearst - 29
Janney - 32
Murch - 31
Shepherd - 34
Basis - 114
Latins - 290ish
eaton - 11
HA - 22
Stoddert - 13
Mann - 9
John Francis - 18

LN here:

It's not your year, sorry to say. There are only two you have a shot at:

eaton - 11 - You have some chance here. You wouldn't have gotten in last year, but you would have the two previous years. Not the two years before that either. So maybe a 40% shot?

John Francis - 18 - You have some chance here as well. You theoretically would have gotten in two of the past five years, but especially in a PK3-8 school, your number will probably take a hit as people gain sibling preference, and your number is right on the bubble. So I'd guess less than 40% - Maybe 25-30%? And very likely after school starts.

You should anticipate staying where you are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latin Cooper 5th grade, WL #30. No preferences.

LN here. This is a tough one. Last year, you wouldn't have gotten a seat, but the previous three years, you would have (and before school started!) So one could say a 75% chance - but I think the trend works against you. As the Cooper campus gets established, waitlist movement just keeps getting shorter as the waitlist length gets longer. Miracles happen, but I'd plan for something else.

I'd say no chance. Results from older years are less relevant because that was at the old, crappy campus that was far away.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist do you think BASIS 5Th will go this year?

LN here. Five year average is 76 offers, range is 53-98.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Stokes French, pre k 3, #5

Brookland or East End?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Stokes French, pre k 3, #5

Brookland or East End?

Brookland sorry! And no preferences

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hello Everyone! It's the Lottery Nerd, back for another round of staring at the Tableau dashboard. As a way to heal my grief over my own bad lottery draw, I'm here for you! Post your schools and waitlist numbers, along with any relevant preference info, and I'll do my best data-based predications of where you'll get offers from and when!

Noting my usual disclaimer: History is not destiny. Things change, you never know what's going to happen here in MSDC lottery land. May the odds be ever in your favor.

2nd grade, no preference.
Shepherd 13
Lafayette 19
Murch 16

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Stokes French, pre k 3, #5

Brookland or East End?

Brookland sorry! And no preferences

LN here: Your chances are good. 4 out of the last 5 years you would have gotten a spot, and two of those years would have been before early August. You may have to wait until school starts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hello Everyone! It's the Lottery Nerd, back for another round of staring at the Tableau dashboard. As a way to heal my grief over my own bad lottery draw, I'm here for you! Post your schools and waitlist numbers, along with any relevant preference info, and I'll do my best data-based predications of where you'll get offers from and when!

Noting my usual disclaimer: History is not destiny. Things change, you never know what's going to happen here in MSDC lottery land. May the odds be ever in your favor.

2nd grade, no preference.
Shepherd 13
Lafayette 19
Murch 16

LN here:

Shepherd 13 - Four years ago, you would have gotten a spot by early August. Other than that, no. So maybe 20%?
Lafayette 19 - Two years ago, you would have gotten a spot in the summer. Other than that, no. So again maybe a 20% shot?
Murch 16 - No offer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:for 5th:
Hearst - 29
Janney - 32
Murch - 31
Shepherd - 34
Basis - 114
Latins - 290ish
eaton - 11
HA - 22
Stoddert - 13
Mann - 9
John Francis - 18

LN here:

It's not your year, sorry to say. There are only two you have a shot at:

eaton - 11 - You have some chance here. You wouldn't have gotten in last year, but you would have the two previous years. Not the two years before that either. So maybe a 40% shot?

John Francis - 18 - You have some chance here as well. You theoretically would have gotten in two of the past five years, but especially in a PK3-8 school, your number will probably take a hit as people gain sibling preference, and your number is right on the bubble. So I'd guess less than 40% - Maybe 25-30%? And very likely after school starts.

You should anticipate staying where you are.

I think John-Francis will likely take fewer students for 5th than they have historically since they are now the temporary feeder for three additional elementary schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:for 5th:
Hearst - 29
Janney - 32
Murch - 31
Shepherd - 34
Basis - 114
Latins - 290ish
eaton - 11
HA - 22
Stoddert - 13
Mann - 9
John Francis - 18

LN here:

It's not your year, sorry to say. There are only two you have a shot at:

eaton - 11 - You have some chance here. You wouldn't have gotten in last year, but you would have the two previous years. Not the two years before that either. So maybe a 40% shot?

John Francis - 18 - You have some chance here as well. You theoretically would have gotten in two of the past five years, but especially in a PK3-8 school, your number will probably take a hit as people gain sibling preference, and your number is right on the bubble. So I'd guess less than 40% - Maybe 25-30%? And very likely after school starts.

You should anticipate staying where you are.

I think John-Francis will likely take fewer students for 5th than they have historically since they are now the temporary feeder for three additional elementary schools.

LN here. That is a great point. I agree.

[Anonymous]

Thank you for your service LN

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:for 5th:
Hearst - 29
Janney - 32
Murch - 31
Shepherd - 34
Basis - 114
Latins - 290ish
eaton - 11
HA - 22
Stoddert - 13
Mann - 9
John Francis - 18

LN here:

It's not your year, sorry to say. There are only two you have a shot at:

eaton - 11 - You have some chance here. You wouldn't have gotten in last year, but you would have the two previous years. Not the two years before that either. So maybe a 40% shot?

John Francis - 18 - You have some chance here as well. You theoretically would have gotten in two of the past five years, but especially in a PK3-8 school, your number will probably take a hit as people gain sibling preference, and your number is right on the bubble. So I'd guess less than 40% - Maybe 25-30%? And very likely after school starts.

You should anticipate staying where you are.

I think John-Francis will likely take fewer students for 5th than they have historically since they are now the temporary feeder for three additional elementary schools.

LN here. That is a great point. I agree.

On the other hand they were admitting a lot of kids from those schools anyway.