Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist do you think BASIS 5Th will go this year?

We got basis 5th and won’t be taking a spot

How does your response answer that question?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hardy - 135

They only moved 101 off wait list last year, so aren't my odds just 0?

Is 101 a lot or no? How or why are waitlists moving that much? I guess it just goes to show that the answer to everything is “it depends”

LN here. Ooo the chance to opine.

So yes, it depends, for sure. The short answer is, yes 101 is a lot for a waitlist to move. Very few waitlists move that much.

Generally, there are a few situations where lottery lists move a lot. Entry years (including K, because it's the first guaranteed year) for DCPS boundary schools can often move a bunch. Boundary schools need to take every single person in the boundary who walks through the door wanting a seat, even in, like, January. So they need to be very conservative about how many OOB seats they offer in March. This can often lead to numerous summer (and even fall) waitlist offers as they see how many IB kids enroll.

Another reason you'll see waitlists move a lot is a change in circumstances. Hardy's feeder pattern recently changed (JR to MacArthur), and that can lead to unpredictable enrollment patterns. More people than you expect may turn down an offer, and fewer IB students may choose to enroll when the high school is new (and thus unknown). You can also see this when a school moves to a swing space. You can see that with Brent last year - several grades with significantly higher waitlist movement than usual for Brent.

One final reason I'll mention here (I'm sure there are others) is late-breaking seats. If you have a seat or two open up in early September, and you call through the next 5-10 people on the waitlist (ie, those people with single digit waitlist numbers who maybe had hopes) and don't get a "yes", then you might end up calling people who never thought they had a chance at the school and had long since made their peace and settled in somewhere else - people aren't eager to change their kid's school in October. So sometimes a school may need to call through dozens of waitlist offers to get one or two more butts in seats.

Bottom line, you're right - it depends. Hardy had the first two scenarios happening, so they ended up letting a ton of people off the waitlist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Fourth grade:

Shepherd #8
Janney #2
Murch #3
ITD #7

Not great for 4th, but would be great odds for 5th (for the first 3, I don’t know what ITD is)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist do you think BASIS 5Th will go this year?

We got basis 5th and won’t be taking a spot

How does your response answer that question?

It just indicates a well-known fact: BASIS list moves a lot

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fourth grade:

Shepherd #8
Janney #2
Murch #3
ITD #7

Not great for 4th, but would be great odds for 5th (for the first 3, I don’t know what ITD is)

Thanks LN
Inspired Teaching is what I was trying to say. lol

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hardy - 135

They only moved 101 off wait list last year, so aren't my odds just 0?

Is 101 a lot or no? How or why are waitlists moving that much? I guess it just goes to show that the answer to everything is “it depends”

LN here. Ooo the chance to opine.

So yes, it depends, for sure. The short answer is, yes 101 is a lot for a waitlist to move. Very few waitlists move that much.

Generally, there are a few situations where lottery lists move a lot. Entry years (including K, because it's the first guaranteed year) for DCPS boundary schools can often move a bunch. Boundary schools need to take every single person in the boundary who walks through the door wanting a seat, even in, like, January. So they need to be very conservative about how many OOB seats they offer in March. This can often lead to numerous summer (and even fall) waitlist offers as they see how many IB kids enroll.

Another reason you'll see waitlists move a lot is a change in circumstances. Hardy's feeder pattern recently changed (JR to MacArthur), and that can lead to unpredictable enrollment patterns. More people than you expect may turn down an offer, and fewer IB students may choose to enroll when the high school is new (and thus unknown). You can also see this when a school moves to a swing space. You can see that with Brent last year - several grades with significantly higher waitlist movement than usual for Brent.

One final reason I'll mention here (I'm sure there are others) is late-breaking seats. If you have a seat or two open up in early September, and you call through the next 5-10 people on the waitlist (ie, those people with single digit waitlist numbers who maybe had hopes) and don't get a "yes", then you might end up calling people who never thought they had a chance at the school and had long since made their peace and settled in somewhere else - people aren't eager to change their kid's school in October. So sometimes a school may need to call through dozens of waitlist offers to get one or two more butts in seats.

Bottom line, you're right - it depends. Hardy had the first two scenarios happening, so they ended up letting a ton of people off the waitlist.

Helpful perspective. Also makes me curious about other context for charters where boundary isn’t a factor. I don’t think waitlist length and waitlist movement should be *the* signal for whether the school is trending good or bad, but it does make me wonder. Are we all sheep for a reason

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:for 5th:
Hearst - 29
Janney - 32
Murch - 31
Shepherd - 34
Basis - 114
Latins - 290ish
eaton - 11
HA - 22
Stoddert - 13
Mann - 9
John Francis - 18

Are you going to do the post lottery for Francis feeders? And were Lafayette and key too far away?

Correct, Lafayette and Key too far away/opposite direction of work. Ross is too small, and Thompson's test scores are much lower than current school - so staying for another year is not so bad.

[Anonymous]

PK4

Hearst #26

Any chance?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are the chances of any movement for fourth grade at Lafayette?

Forgot to say 4th- #3- 1st choice

LN here.

Doesn't look great. Thy've only made three offers once in the past five years, and that was four years ago. So, maybe 20%.

We were #3 on the WL a couple years ago for 3rd grade. Our K sib got into Lafayette in early summer, and I emailed the principal to ask if my 3rd grade sib would get in. She responded that she had no plans to take any 3rd graders off the WL even with sib preference/enrollment. It was helpful to get a clear answer in early summer, even if it wasn't what we wanted to hear. So it could be worth emailing the principal once the dust settles and see if they'll share their realistic picture. But I agree it's unlikely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for your this community service, Lottery Nerd!

For PK4 with no siblings or inbound preferences:

Mann: #15
Janney: #15
Hearst: #14

I have my suspicions based on my own look at the data, but I really just eyeballed it.

LN here:

Mann: #15 - You've got a decent shot here. You would have gotten an offer the last two years, and three of the last five, and two of those five would be by August. So, about 60% shot.
Janney: #15 - You will get an offer here. They've offered at least 23 seats from the waitlist the past five years.
Hearst: #14 - Interesting one. So four of the past five years, you would have gotten an offer, and all by the summer. The one exception is - last year, when they only went to #12 AND they had a much longer waitlist. I'm not super familiar with Hearst, but if something changed or is changing, then last year's numbers might way more heavily, but if not, I'd give you 80% odds.

One note about all of these - if any IB students submit a post-lottery application, they'll jump ahead of you, as will any siblings (as always). So that's a definite X factor. But with numbers that good at all three, I'd be SHOCKED if you didn't get in to at least one or two.

Without preferences, you had one damn good lottery number!

A lot of inbounds Hearst families keep their kids at Communikids for PreK 4 which is why in many years a decent number of OOB kids get in. My understanding is that last year a lot of in bound families were worried that prek funding wouldn't come through at Communikids and so more went to Hearst for prek 4 than usual. My thinking is that data will go back to being like previous years this year.

[Anonymous]

PK 4

Maury - #65
Brent - #48
Ludlow-Taylor - #52
Payne - #20
Hyde-Addison - #36
Shirley Chisholm - #21

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PRE-K 3

Garrison Elementary School In-boundary Waitlisted - #7
2 Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #11
3 H.D. Cooke Elementary School Waitlisted - #32
4 Marie Reed Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #111
5 John Lewis Elementary School Waitlisted - #34
6 Bancroft Elementary School - English Dominant Waitlisted - #126
7 Latin American Montessori Bilingual (LAMB) PCS Waitlisted - #210
8 Hyde-Addison Elementary School Waitlisted - #139
9 Seaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #7
10 Military Road Early Learning Center Waitlisted - #5
11 Tubman Elementary School Waitlisted - #36

LN here:

You have a good chance at several of these:

Garrison Elementary School In-boundary Waitlisted - #7: It's likely you'll get a spot here. They've offered more than 7 seats 4 of the past 5 years. So probably an 80% chance.
Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #11: They've offered more than 11 seats 2 out of the past 5 years. So, about a 40% shot.
H.D. Cooke Elementary School Waitlisted - #32: Unlikely, but possible. Last year you would have gotten a slot, but the previous four years, no. Assuming nothing major has changed, I'd say a 20% shot.
Seaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #7: So based on historic data, you'd get a seat here three out of the past five years, or a 60% shot. However, they're moving to a swing space next year, and generally, waitlists move a lot more in those situations, so I'd say it's a much better than 60% shot. Probably 80%+.
Military Road Early Learning Center Waitlisted - #5: You should get a spot here. They've taken at least 11 seats every year.

All the others, you're not going to get an offer from.

Thank you!!! Should I just remove the ones of no chance from my list? Would that immediately help others’ waitlist numbers go down?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PRE-K 3

Garrison Elementary School In-boundary Waitlisted - #7
2 Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #11
3 H.D. Cooke Elementary School Waitlisted - #32
4 Marie Reed Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #111
5 John Lewis Elementary School Waitlisted - #34
6 Bancroft Elementary School - English Dominant Waitlisted - #126
7 Latin American Montessori Bilingual (LAMB) PCS Waitlisted - #210
8 Hyde-Addison Elementary School Waitlisted - #139
9 Seaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #7
10 Military Road Early Learning Center Waitlisted - #5
11 Tubman Elementary School Waitlisted - #36

LN here:

You have a good chance at several of these:

Garrison Elementary School In-boundary Waitlisted - #7: It's likely you'll get a spot here. They've offered more than 7 seats 4 of the past 5 years. So probably an 80% chance.
Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #11: They've offered more than 11 seats 2 out of the past 5 years. So, about a 40% shot.
H.D. Cooke Elementary School Waitlisted - #32: Unlikely, but possible. Last year you would have gotten a slot, but the previous four years, no. Assuming nothing major has changed, I'd say a 20% shot.
Seaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #7: So based on historic data, you'd get a seat here three out of the past five years, or a 60% shot. However, they're moving to a swing space next year, and generally, waitlists move a lot more in those situations, so I'd say it's a much better than 60% shot. Probably 80%+.
Military Road Early Learning Center Waitlisted - #5: You should get a spot here. They've taken at least 11 seats every year.

All the others, you're not going to get an offer from.

Thank you!!! Should I just remove the ones of no chance from my list? Would that immediately help others’ waitlist numbers go down?

You could and it would, but it wouldn’t move anyone into offer territory since you aren’t in offer territory.

Generally my advice is only remove yourself if, knowing what you know now with the match you have right now (not future potential matches even if the odds are good), would you turn down the seat from the school if offered tomorrow. If you’d turn it down no matter what, yes, removing yourself makes sense (will provide very slightly more accurate waitlist signals to all who care, essentially), but if you’d still take an offer, even if it is extremely unlikely to come, I’d stay in the list.

[Anonymous]

Eaton WL #16
Janney WL #16
Murch WL #16
Yu Ying PCS WL #18
Stoddert WL#17
Mann WL #7
Maury WL #24
Hyde-Addison WL #11
Key WL #11
ITDS WL #9

For 1st grade? Predictions?

[Anonymous]

I was actually just playing around with schools. I live in Ward 7.