Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

[Anonymous]

We are #8 at DC bilingual for 1st. Any chance?

[Anonymous]

When do you think Walls waitlist #1-10 will find out?

[Anonymous]

PK 4

Maury - #65
Brent - #48
Ludlow-Taylor - #52
Payne - #20
Hyde-Addison - #36
Shirley Chisholm - #21

Any predictions? From what I could tell (and I'm very new at this) there may be a decent chance at Hyde? (We live on the Hill, but both work in Georgetown so Hyde could totally work).

[Anonymous]

Hey LN. This is fun, thanks for doing it.

PreK 4 Waitlists:

DC Bilingual: #43
Shepherd: #21
EL Haynes: #14
LAMB: #27

[Anonymous]

pk 4 - 19 at mundo verde calle ocho.

wondering if the expansion there will help at all or if the historic numbers for waitlist movement will hold true

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was actually just playing around with schools. I live in Ward 7.

Oh man don't get my hopes up that there could be someone like you ahead of me on my waitlists!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are #8 at DC bilingual for 1st. Any chance?

I’m not LN but have kids at DCB. I dont think DCB adds seats in 1st but I have known a few kids to join as late as 3rd if a spot opens up (ie because a family left the school). But the kids I know of had a sibling at DCB and even siblings had to wait until the summer or even the beginning of the school year to get the spot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are #8 at DC bilingual for 1st. Any chance?

I’m not LN but have kids at DCB. I dont think DCB adds seats in 1st but I have known a few kids to join as late as 3rd if a spot opens up (ie because a family left the school). But the kids I know of had a sibling at DCB and even siblings had to wait until the summer or even the beginning of the school year to get the spot.

Thanks for this input!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PK 4

Maury - #65
Brent - #48
Ludlow-Taylor - #52
Payne - #20
Hyde-Addison - #36
Shirley Chisholm - #21

Any predictions? From what I could tell (and I'm very new at this) there may be a decent chance at Hyde? (We live on the Hill, but both work in Georgetown so Hyde could totally work).

I think Chisholm is your most likely by far. It went up to 31 last year for PK4 (though something weird happened, because it was at 6 in August & then jumped to 31, so it may have been a lot of cycling for only a few seats) & is now moving into swing space, which will likely increase the churn.

You have no chance at Brent, Maury, L-T or Payne, which combined to make 13 WL offers last year (half of which were at Brent and that's with the swing space).

Hyde went to 17 last year and 27 the year before... prior to that you would have gotten in, but there is a very clear trend across the school.

[Anonymous]

For K, Maury # 22

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hey LN. This is fun, thanks for doing it.

PreK 4 Waitlists:

DC Bilingual: #43
Shepherd: #21
EL Haynes: #14
LAMB: #27

no chance at shepherd for preK4. There are IB kids on the waitlist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For K, Maury # 22

No chance. Over the last 5 years, the maximum waitlist movement was... 2 spots.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fourth grade:

Shepherd #8
Janney #2
Murch #3
ITD #7

Not great for 4th, but would be great odds for 5th (for the first 3, I don’t know what ITD is)

Thanks LN
Inspired Teaching is what I was trying to say. lol

LN here - the previous post was not me.

Shepherd - no offer
Janney - Two years ago, they made two offers before June, but that's the only time ever. So, 20% at most? Factor in siblings, maybe less. 10-15%.
Murch - no offer
ITD - You've got a chance here. Not the past two years, but every year before that. So maybe a 60% shot?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hardy - 135

They only moved 101 off wait list last year, so aren't my odds just 0?

Is 101 a lot or no? How or why are waitlists moving that much? I guess it just goes to show that the answer to everything is “it depends”

LN here. Ooo the chance to opine.

So yes, it depends, for sure. The short answer is, yes 101 is a lot for a waitlist to move. Very few waitlists move that much.

Generally, there are a few situations where lottery lists move a lot. Entry years (including K, because it's the first guaranteed year) for DCPS boundary schools can often move a bunch. Boundary schools need to take every single person in the boundary who walks through the door wanting a seat, even in, like, January. So they need to be very conservative about how many OOB seats they offer in March. This can often lead to numerous summer (and even fall) waitlist offers as they see how many IB kids enroll.

Another reason you'll see waitlists move a lot is a change in circumstances. Hardy's feeder pattern recently changed (JR to MacArthur), and that can lead to unpredictable enrollment patterns. More people than you expect may turn down an offer, and fewer IB students may choose to enroll when the high school is new (and thus unknown). You can also see this when a school moves to a swing space. You can see that with Brent last year - several grades with significantly higher waitlist movement than usual for Brent.

One final reason I'll mention here (I'm sure there are others) is late-breaking seats. If you have a seat or two open up in early September, and you call through the next 5-10 people on the waitlist (ie, those people with single digit waitlist numbers who maybe had hopes) and don't get a "yes", then you might end up calling people who never thought they had a chance at the school and had long since made their peace and settled in somewhere else - people aren't eager to change their kid's school in October. So sometimes a school may need to call through dozens of waitlist offers to get one or two more butts in seats.

Bottom line, you're right - it depends. Hardy had the first two scenarios happening, so they ended up letting a ton of people off the waitlist.

Helpful perspective. Also makes me curious about other context for charters where boundary isn’t a factor. I don’t think waitlist length and waitlist movement should be *the* signal for whether the school is trending good or bad, but it does make me wonder. Are we all sheep for a reason

LN here.

Yeah, for charters, only the second and third apply. Also, charters can be a bit more aggressive with offers than DCPS boundary schools - if you've got 50 kids, and you want 50 kids next year, and one of them enrolls somewhere else, you can just let in another kid immediately. You don't have to worry about the summer random inbound enrollment.

Personally, I think waitlist length and trend is useful information, though there's a LOT of context. For example, basically ALL charters have shorter waitlists now than they did 5-10 years ago for PK3. In generally, to me that's about how DCPS quality has increased and more and more people are both willing to take a chance on their IB school, and more and more IB schools are at least considered to be potentially good. That shortens charter waitlists, but doesn't actually say anything about any individual charter school. But when you see schools that used to be considered "HRCS" (Highly Regarded Charter Schools) with basically no waitlists in some upper grades (CMI, Two Rivers) that is definitely telling you something.

I would read nothing into waitlist movement as far as school trends. There are WAY too many variables there and it says more about who they happened to call and their situation than the school. That matters for the chance you'll get in, but not how the school is trending, IMHO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PK4

Hearst #26

Any chance?

LN here.

Yes, you have a decent chance. Three of the past five years they've gone that deep into their waitlist. So, a 60% shot?