Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions
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Anonymous
LN here. Eaton, you would have gotten in five years ago, but never since. So, it's a long shot. Less than 20% chance. Bancroft let in 15 kids last year for 4th, so you've got a shot there. However, previous years it's been 0. So I'd say maybe a 20% shot? The other three, no offer. |
Anonymous
Wow if bold is true then the 5th grade class at that school will be decimated. But are you happy with John Francis? We heard mixed reviews. |
Anonymous
We have heard only negative reviews. |
Anonymous
Aha! LN lives in the suburbs. |
Anonymous
| Some DC charters had spring break the last few weeks. |
Anonymous
Brent is in its swing space for one more year. |
Anonymous
And adding to that, it would be insane to take Brent for 4th this year unless you’re in dire need or closer to the swing space and plan to try for other schools for 5th. You do one year in the swing space and then 5th back at the new building, but in the weird upper school model where they just sprinkle a few 5th graders into each 4th grade classroom. Then you feed to Jefferson for middle. That’s why they went so deep last year and will probably again this year. |
Anonymous
Or private school? Explain yourself LN! |
Anonymous
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Would love your prediction:
Chisholm for pk3, #5, no preferences. I know it's normally a long shot, but wondering if you think the swing space changes it up at all! |
Anonymous
LN here. Yes, you would have gotten in last year, but agree that's an anomaly. Based on another poster, it sounds like Calle Ocho was in a swing space? Was that just for one year? If last year was a single year at a swing space, I'd say you have basically no shot this year, especially because swing spaces tend to mean improvements which means the year after there's often an increase in demand, particularly for PK3. |
Anonymous
LN here. Sorry, you're not getting in. Good luck at John Francis! |
Anonymous
LN here. You should get a seat. They let in more kids than that every year. You've got probably a 50/50 chance of getting offer by August, but it could be later. Keep in mind the August data comes out well before school starts, so for example, looking at last year, even though all 11 offers were issued by October and none were issued by August, that doesn't mean all 11 came after school starts. It's very possible (likely, even?) that some of those offers came in the week or two before school started. |
Anonymous
LN here. Ah, sorry, I thought they were done, lost track. In that case - yes, you've got a shot at Brent, but it'll be close. They let in 33 last year. I'd give it a coin flip. I'll also note, while I appreciate the person who noted the drawbacks to Brent for 4th (particularly in this situation), as it's helpful for people to have access to more information, I can still see a lot of situations where someone might find this appealing, particularly given that the swing space is metro-accessible from the green line. If you're in an EOTR elementary school, for example, this might be your path to a safety middle school. While Jefferson may not be a hotly desired middle school, it's a big step up from Kramer, Johnson, Hart, or even Sousa. |
Anonymous
LN here. I'm assuming English Dominant? Ordinarily, I wouldn't say a long shot, closer to a coin flip. You would have gotten in 2 out of the past 5 years. But yes, with a swing space, your chances go up. I think a bit less in PK3 than in other grades, as they've still only offering X seats, and presumably people knew about the swing space when they applied. The upper grades tend to let more in kids off the waitlists because they lose more current students than usual to attrition. So, for example, Brent saw lots of kids coming off the waitlist in upper grades last year, but their PK3 waitlist still didn't move. So yeah, I'd call it a coin flip. Maybe a little less. |
Anonymous
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Okay - Lottery Nerd here. I think I'm all caught up. If I missed any, please bump them.
And while I don't want to give away too many personal details, I will share that I live in DC, EOTP, WOTR, and my kids go to a DCPS elementary school. |