Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
Not the OP, but looking at the waitlist data -- if you're willing to take a late offer, you have a very good chance. '25-'26: 23 total by August / 87 total by October '24-'25: 35 total by August / 86 total by October '23-'24: 33 total by August / 53 total by October |
Anonymous
| MV Calle Ocho - 55. Any shot at PK3? Last year probably yes, but last year seemed like an anomaly. |
Anonymous
Not OP, but since they’d asked about this too, I know that MV Calle Ocho will have about 100 seats each for PK3 and PK4 and the new PK building will be open for SY26-27. So I’d be pretty surprised if they get very far into the waitlist unfortunately. Last year definitely seemed like an anamoly— initially I looked at last year and thought it was a pretty good shot to get into, then realized all the years prior were very competitive. Last year the Calle Ocho PreK was in the P St swing space and I think that messed up the numbers a lot. Not sure if you lotteried P St too, but since the Calle Ocho kids are moving out maybe they’ll have a bit more room for more students this year? Just speculating. |
Anonymous
|
Latin 2nd - 131
Latin Cooper - 109 Everyone else we know who applied got in. Assuming a hard no there. We'll stick with our 5th grade school and then opt for John Francis. |
Anonymous
I find this hard to believe. Most people we know didn’t get a spot since only 10% get a spot. Not OP but no shot. Both under 20 waitlist offers last year. |
Anonymous
Sorry, I should have said how many. Four other families from our school's grade level applied, and they all got in. |
Anonymous
Did they have at risk or sibling preferences? |
Anonymous
It was the swing space. Last year was an anomaly. PK3 is very competitive at Calle Ocho and will be even more competitive with the beautiful new building and outdoor space. |
Anonymous
| We are crossing fingers for pk3 at Ludlow Taylor. #8 waitlist and with sibling preference. Seems there might be a shot by October?? |
Anonymous
OOB w/ sibling preference and you're as high as 8th? That's crazy because I know someone in the same spot for PK4 and they're 20th! I wonder if more money in the boundary means people are keeping their kids in daycare for PK3 or just an anomalous year. Anyway, the school moves the list aggressively throughout the school year to get in OOB sibs, because they know they'll come eventually so why not grab them sooner? I know one who got in in January when a family moved (they were originally 12th on the WL, I think). If you're willing to move whenever, it will likely work out. |
Anonymous
|
LNLN!!
??? |
Anonymous
| Lottery Nerd here! Sorry, was on vacation. Will try to knock out some predictions right now, and finish the rest up later. |
Anonymous
LN here. Bruce Monroe Eng Dominant #6 - Very unlikely. They let in a sixth person just once in the past five years, and it was four years ago. Less than 20%. Tubman #8 - This one's hard to say. Based purely on historical data, you'd have a 40% shot (2 out of the past five years, you would have gotten in). BUT they are in a brand new building, so it's likely demand is higher. So I'd say more like a 20% shot. Cleveland Eng Dominant #9 - Unlikely. They let in this many people five and four years ago, so MAYBE a 40% shot, but one of those was the pandemic year, which is weird for PK. I'd say more like a 20% shot. You should plan on something else. |
Anonymous
LN here: Garrison WL# 11 - no offer JO Wilson WL# 12 - no offer Payne WL# 23 - no offer Ross WL# 27 - no offer Brent WL# 31 - they let this many people in last year, but that was in the swing space. Now they're in a brand new building. So sorry, no offer. Plan on something else (staying where you are or your IB). |
Anonymous
LN here. Absolutely. You should get in - they've let in at least that many kids every single year. Just hold tight - you're likely to get your offer between August and October. |