Reply to Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]pk 4 - 19 at mundo verde calle ocho.

wondering if the expansion there will help at all or if the historic numbers for waitlist movement will hold true [/quote]

LN here:

This is one where you're really going to want to take a look at the Tableau dash with updated data when it comes out (probably in the next week) because last year they made 15 offers... but only had 17 on the waitlist. Possible that two people took themselves off the waitlist and thus they actually cleared their whole waitlist, which would mean that 17 is basically meaningless - they could have had room for more.

Also - this data is really hard to understand as the number of lottery seats has varied tremendously (3-94 in the past five years!) as has the waitlist length (17-206!) and the total offers made (6-136!) That tells me that things are changing there - you reference an expansion, but I'm not very familiar with this school, so I'm out of the loop on that. As it stands, and especially with then number of waitlist offers being close to your number the last two years (15 and 18) it's really impossible to put even a rough number on this.

If anyone has context to the wildly swinging numbers here, feel free to add it and I can try again. [/quote]

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