Reply to Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]PRE-K 3

Garrison Elementary School	In-boundary	Waitlisted - #7	
2	Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant		Waitlisted - #11	
3	H.D. Cooke Elementary School		Waitlisted - #32	
4	Marie Reed Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant		Waitlisted - #111	
5	John Lewis Elementary School		Waitlisted - #34	
6	Bancroft Elementary School - English Dominant		Waitlisted - #126	
7	Latin American Montessori Bilingual (LAMB) PCS		Waitlisted - #210	
8	Hyde-Addison Elementary School		Waitlisted - #139	
9	Seaton Elementary School		Waitlisted - #7	
10	Military Road Early Learning Center		Waitlisted - #5	
11	Tubman Elementary School		Waitlisted - #36[/quote]

LN here:

You have a good chance at several of these:

Garrison Elementary School	In-boundary	Waitlisted - #7: It's likely you'll get a spot here. They've offered more than 7 seats 4 of the past 5 years. So probably an 80% chance. 
Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant		Waitlisted - #11: They've offered more than 11 seats 2 out of the past 5 years. So, about a 40% shot. 
H.D. Cooke Elementary School		Waitlisted - #32: Unlikely, but possible. Last year you would have gotten a slot, but the previous four years, no. Assuming nothing major has changed, I'd say a 20% shot. 
Seaton Elementary School		Waitlisted - #7: So based on historic data, you'd get a seat here three out of the past five years, or a 60% shot. However, they're moving to a swing space next year, and generally, waitlists move a lot more in those situations, so I'd say it's a much better than 60% shot. Probably 80%+.
Military Road Early Learning Center		Waitlisted - #5: You should get a spot here. They've taken at least 11 seats every year.

All the others, you're not going to get an offer from. [/quote]

Thank you!!! Should I just remove the ones of no chance from my list? Would that immediately help others’ waitlist numbers go down? [/quote]

You could and it would, but it wouldn’t move anyone into offer territory since you aren’t in offer territory.

Generally my advice is only remove yourself if, knowing what you know now with the match you have right now (not future potential matches even if the odds are good), would you turn down the seat from the school if offered tomorrow. If you’d turn it down no matter what, yes, removing yourself makes sense (will provide very slightly more accurate waitlist signals to all who care, essentially), but if you’d still take an offer, even if it is extremely unlikely to come, I’d stay in the list. [/quote]

LN here - I did not write the above, but I agree with it whole heartedly. If you know you wouldn't take the seat, save the school a phone call and take yourself off. But DO NOT take yourself off a waitlist because you think your odds are bad! History is NOT destiny. Things change!! You never really know when something crazy might happen - it's literally a lottery. You want the seat? Stay on the waitlist![/quote]

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