Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions
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Anonymous
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Thanks for your this community service, Lottery Nerd!
For PK4 with no siblings or inbound preferences: Mann: #15 Janney: #15 Hearst: #14 I have my suspicions based on my own look at the data, but I really just eyeballed it. |
Anonymous
| Didn’t even lottery this year but appreciate you, LN! |
Anonymous
| What are the chances of any movement for fourth grade at Lafayette? |
Anonymous
Forgot to say 4th- #3- 1st choice |
Anonymous
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PRE-K 3
Garrison Elementary School In-boundary Waitlisted - #7 2 Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #11 3 H.D. Cooke Elementary School Waitlisted - #32 4 Marie Reed Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #111 5 John Lewis Elementary School Waitlisted - #34 6 Bancroft Elementary School - English Dominant Waitlisted - #126 7 Latin American Montessori Bilingual (LAMB) PCS Waitlisted - #210 8 Hyde-Addison Elementary School Waitlisted - #139 9 Seaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #7 10 Military Road Early Learning Center Waitlisted - #5 11 Tubman Elementary School Waitlisted - #36 |
Anonymous
Is 101 a lot or no? How or why are waitlists moving that much? I guess it just goes to show that the answer to everything is “it depends” |
Anonymous
LN here: Mann: #15 - You've got a decent shot here. You would have gotten an offer the last two years, and three of the last five, and two of those five would be by August. So, about 60% shot. Janney: #15 - You will get an offer here. They've offered at least 23 seats from the waitlist the past five years. Hearst: #14 - Interesting one. So four of the past five years, you would have gotten an offer, and all by the summer. The one exception is - last year, when they only went to #12 AND they had a much longer waitlist. I'm not super familiar with Hearst, but if something changed or is changing, then last year's numbers might way more heavily, but if not, I'd give you 80% odds. One note about all of these - if any IB students submit a post-lottery application, they'll jump ahead of you, as will any siblings (as always). So that's a definite X factor. But with numbers that good at all three, I'd be SHOCKED if you didn't get in to at least one or two. Without preferences, you had one damn good lottery number! |
Anonymous
WEIGH not way. Fixed and bolded above. |
Anonymous
LN here. Doesn't look great. Thy've only made three offers once in the past five years, and that was four years ago. So, maybe 20%. |
Anonymous
Are you going to do the post lottery for Francis feeders? And were Lafayette and key too far away? |
Anonymous
LN here: You have a good chance at several of these: Garrison Elementary School In-boundary Waitlisted - #7: It's likely you'll get a spot here. They've offered more than 7 seats 4 of the past 5 years. So probably an 80% chance. Cleveland Elementary School (Dual Language) - English Dominant Waitlisted - #11: They've offered more than 11 seats 2 out of the past 5 years. So, about a 40% shot. H.D. Cooke Elementary School Waitlisted - #32: Unlikely, but possible. Last year you would have gotten a slot, but the previous four years, no. Assuming nothing major has changed, I'd say a 20% shot. Seaton Elementary School Waitlisted - #7: So based on historic data, you'd get a seat here three out of the past five years, or a 60% shot. However, they're moving to a swing space next year, and generally, waitlists move a lot more in those situations, so I'd say it's a much better than 60% shot. Probably 80%+. Military Road Early Learning Center Waitlisted - #5: You should get a spot here. They've taken at least 11 seats every year. All the others, you're not going to get an offer from. |
Anonymous
Not the nerd but oof that is a tough draw. I bet you get military road though, and I know people who loved it. Is height on your last? I know people who were happy there too |
Anonymous
We got basis 5th and won’t be taking a spot |
Anonymous
Re-lottery next year and you will have a good chance to get in |
Anonymous
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Fourth grade:
Shepherd #8 Janney #2 Murch #3 ITD #7 |