Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MV Calle Ocho - 55. Any shot at PK3? Last year probably yes, but last year seemed like an anomaly.

LN here. Yes, you would have gotten in last year, but agree that's an anomaly. Based on another poster, it sounds like Calle Ocho was in a swing space? Was that just for one year?

If last year was a single year at a swing space, I'd say you have basically no shot this year, especially because swing spaces tend to mean improvements which means the year after there's often an increase in demand, particularly for PK3.

Correct, MV Calle Ocho had a swing space just one year (at MV Cook) and it was for PK specific improvements! They built a new LEED Platinum PK3/PK4 focused building with nice outdoor space (next to the main Calle Ocho school building). So wouldn’t expect much waitlist movement this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Okay - Lottery Nerd here. I think I'm all caught up. If I missed any, please bump them.

And while I don't want to give away too many personal details, I will share that I live in DC, EOTP, WOTR, and my kids go to a DCPS elementary school.

Don't listen to the snark about living in the burbs, LN. I am a fan of yours! Thank you for what you're doing!

WOTR = is that west of the river? I'm not new here, but DCUM acronyms never fail to mystify me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay - Lottery Nerd here. I think I'm all caught up. If I missed any, please bump them.

And while I don't want to give away too many personal details, I will share that I live in DC, EOTP, WOTR, and my kids go to a DCPS elementary school.

Don't listen to the snark about living in the burbs, LN. I am a fan of yours! Thank you for what you're doing!

WOTR = is that west of the river? I'm not new here, but DCUM acronyms never fail to mystify me.

You're welcome! It's a labor of love. Yes, west of the river.

I did want people to know that I, too, have skin in the game

[Anonymous]

Thank you! That’s so helpful! I didn’t realize that about the October offers.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are crossing fingers for pk3 at Ludlow Taylor. #8 waitlist and with sibling preference. Seems there might be a shot by October??

LN here.

You should get a seat. They let in more kids than that every year. You've got probably a 50/50 chance of getting offer by August, but it could be later.

Keep in mind the August data comes out well before school starts, so for example, looking at last year, even though all 11 offers were issued by October and none were issued by August, that doesn't mean all 11 came after school starts. It's very possible (likely, even?) that some of those offers came in the week or two before school started.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay - Lottery Nerd here. I think I'm all caught up. If I missed any, please bump them.

And while I don't want to give away too many personal details, I will share that I live in DC, EOTP, WOTR, and my kids go to a DCPS elementary school.

Don't listen to the snark about living in the burbs, LN. I am a fan of yours! Thank you for what you're doing!

WOTR = is that west of the river? I'm not new here, but DCUM acronyms never fail to mystify me.

You're welcome! It's a labor of love. Yes, west of the river.

I did want people to know that I, too, have skin in the game

Are you doing the lottery this year?

[Anonymous]

60, Hardy
Thank you for all you do!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay - Lottery Nerd here. I think I'm all caught up. If I missed any, please bump them.

And while I don't want to give away too many personal details, I will share that I live in DC, EOTP, WOTR, and my kids go to a DCPS elementary school.

Don't listen to the snark about living in the burbs, LN. I am a fan of yours! Thank you for what you're doing!

WOTR = is that west of the river? I'm not new here, but DCUM acronyms never fail to mystify me.

You're welcome! It's a labor of love. Yes, west of the river.

I did want people to know that I, too, have skin in the game

Are you doing the lottery this year?

LN here. Yes. We feel okay, not great, about our results, and are watching a couple of waitlists very closely!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:60, Hardy
Thank you for all you do!

LN here. This is a tough one. Usually, the answer would be no. However, last year (and only last year!) they let it a ton of people - triple digits in fact (101). If anyone has any thoughts on why that happened, please share, but certainly if that trend continues, you'd be set.

Given that that was a one time thing, (but it was last year) I'd say maybe a 30% shot?

[Anonymous]

Hello for 6 th grade
Basis #34
Washington Latin - Cooper campus #25
Inspired teaching demonstration #21
Two rivers #40

Thank you so much!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hello for 6 th grade
Basis #34
Washington Latin - Cooper campus #25
Inspired teaching demonstration #21
Two rivers #40

Thank you so much!

LN here.

Basis #34 - no offer
Washington Latin - Cooper campus #25 - no offer. They did used to take this many the first couple years, but they were just getting started. That's no longer the case.
Inspired teaching demonstration #21 - this will be a nail biter. They've offered more than that three of the past five years, but last year they didn't get quite that far, and the year before they let in zero. I'd give you about a 50/50 shot, but it's likely to happen in mid-late August or later if it does happen. Think about whether you'd take a slot after school starts!
Two rivers #40 - Two Rivers waitlist for sixth grade is only 15 kids. Is this a typo?

[Anonymous]

Hi - John Francis 6th grade 74

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hello for 6 th grade
Basis #34
Washington Latin - Cooper campus #25
Inspired teaching demonstration #21
Two rivers #40

Thank you so much!

LN here.

Basis #34 - no offer
Washington Latin - Cooper campus #25 - no offer. They did used to take this many the first couple years, but they were just getting started. That's no longer the case.
Inspired teaching demonstration #21 - this will be a nail biter. They've offered more than that three of the past five years, but last year they didn't get quite that far, and the year before they let in zero. I'd give you about a 50/50 shot, but it's likely to happen in mid-late August or later if it does happen. Think about whether you'd take a slot after school starts!
Two rivers #40 - Two Rivers waitlist for sixth grade is only 15 kids. Is this a typo?

Not a typo. We did the post lottery and got number #40

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hello for 6 th grade
Basis #34
Washington Latin - Cooper campus #25
Inspired teaching demonstration #21
Two rivers #40

Thank you so much!

LN here.

Basis #34 - no offer
Washington Latin - Cooper campus #25 - no offer. They did used to take this many the first couple years, but they were just getting started. That's no longer the case.
Inspired teaching demonstration #21 - this will be a nail biter. They've offered more than that three of the past five years, but last year they didn't get quite that far, and the year before they let in zero. I'd give you about a 50/50 shot, but it's likely to happen in mid-late August or later if it does happen. Think about whether you'd take a slot after school starts!
Two rivers #40 - Two Rivers waitlist for sixth grade is only 15 kids. Is this a typo?

Not a typo. We did the post lottery and got number #40

LN here. For sixth grade? I can't imagine they have already had 25 post-lottery applications. Something here isn't making sense. The other numbers are clearly not post-lottery, you just added Two Rivers?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hello for 6 th grade
Basis #34
Washington Latin - Cooper campus #25
Inspired teaching demonstration #21
Two rivers #40

Thank you so much!

LN here.

Basis #34 - no offer
Washington Latin - Cooper campus #25 - no offer. They did used to take this many the first couple years, but they were just getting started. That's no longer the case.
Inspired teaching demonstration #21 - this will be a nail biter. They've offered more than that three of the past five years, but last year they didn't get quite that far, and the year before they let in zero. I'd give you about a 50/50 shot, but it's likely to happen in mid-late August or later if it does happen. Think about whether you'd take a slot after school starts!
Two rivers #40 - Two Rivers waitlist for sixth grade is only 15 kids. Is this a typo?

Not a typo. We did the post lottery and got number #40

LN here. For sixth grade? I can't imagine they have already had 25 post-lottery applications. Something here isn't making sense. The other numbers are clearly not post-lottery, you just added Two Rivers?

I added two rivers and John Francis post lottery because we didn’t get any good match for middle schools. Any recommendations on what else we could try to add that’s some solid choice?

Thank you so much !

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hi - John Francis 6th grade 74

LN here. Is this the same poster? Because John Francis also only had 59 people on the waitlist for 6th grade this year. I didn't realize that many people were doing post lottery waitlists.

In any case, you have no chance here, they never go that deep into a waitlist.

Assuming that there really were 25 more people post-lottery added to the Two Rivers waitlist - they never let that many people off the waitlist.

If you're looking for schools that tend to clear their waitlists, I'd look at Wells, Jefferson, McFarland, and Sojourner Truth. I think they all usually clear their waitlists, or at least come close.