Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions
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Anonymous
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Hello Everyone! It's the Lottery Nerd, back for another round of staring at the Tableau dashboard. As a way to heal my grief over my own bad lottery draw, I'm here for you! Post your schools and waitlist numbers, along with any relevant preference info, and I'll do my best data-based predications of where you'll get offers from and when!
Noting my usual disclaimer: History is not destiny. Things change, you never know what's going to happen here in MSDC lottery land. May the odds be ever in your favor. |
Anonymous
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Hardy - 135
They only moved 101 off wait list last year, so aren't my odds just 0? |
Anonymous
Lottery Nerd here (LN moving forward) - for 6th grade? |
Anonymous
| MVP PK3 - 23 |
Anonymous
Yes, 6th. |
Anonymous
LN here. Sadly, your odds are very, very low. Hardy has never let more than 101 kids off the waitlist. You should plan for something else. That being said, I will use this moment to note a few situations where my back-of-the-napkin predictions are wrong. For one thing - some people do leave the waitlist! I think that's pretty rare (I'm basing that on nothing, just gut instinct) since it doesn't get anyone anything and it requires actual action. But theoretically, if a bunch of people give up on Hardy and remove themselves from the waitlist, AND they take a ton of people, you've got a sliver of a hope of a something. But we're in the fractions of percents here. In general, while the numbers I'm using are waitlist length and offers, the waitlist does change! People get different preferences, post-lottery applications get added, and people leave the waitlist, and we have no data on how much that happens. Adds a touch of uncertainty to this whole exercise. And my guess is that is usually not in people's favor, as the most common changes are new preferences (like Sibling Accepted). |
Anonymous
| Lottery Nerd, when does tableau get updated with the initial lottery data for this year? |
Anonymous
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Yes, I've never seen the lottery number decrease from attrition more than they increase. My child had a waitlist number for one of the charter middles last year that was a number that sometimes gets in, sometimes does not. He did not get in but the tableau reflects that the school actually took more kids off the waitlist than his number was. For example, let's say his initial waitlist number was 103. The school says it took 107 off the waitlist. But my kid ended up still with a single-digit waitlist number when the school closed its doors. So some siblings must have jumped in during the summer. We saw this, as his number increased by 1 or 2 a few times in the summer.
Broader point -- if you're right on the edge of the highest number the school has ever taken off the WL, you're looking at a tough September where your kid maybe gets close and then gets shut out at count day. Your kid is not getting in over the summer, if they get in at all. |
Anonymous
Yes, this is what I thought! The siblings pref will always put you further away. Thanks, LN and PP for the clear explanation. |
Anonymous
Edit: just for fun I'll add that you gave me a 65% chance by October in the other thread. |
Anonymous
| Latin Cooper 5th grade, WL #30. No preferences. |
Anonymous
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for 5th:
Hearst - 29 Janney - 32 Murch - 31 Shepherd - 34 Basis - 114 Latins - 290ish eaton - 11 HA - 22 Stoddert - 13 Mann - 9 John Francis - 18 |
Anonymous
| How far into the waitlist do you think BASIS 5Th will go this year? |
Anonymous
| Stokes French, pre k 3, #5 |
Anonymous
Depends if they're worried about hitting their enrollment cap. |