Anonymous wrote:Will the likely 2022 red wave take Maryland?
Which of these things do you think are likely to happen? Not necessarily what you hope will or won’t happen, but what do you predict?
A. Maryland elects a centrist Republican Governor like Hogan
B. Maryland elects a right wing Republican like Youngkin
C. Hogan defeats Van Hollen
D. Another R defeats Van Hollen
E. Republicans gain a seat with redistricting
F. Republicans flip a seat regardless of redistricting
G. Frederick, Anne Arundel, and/or Howard County flips back to red
H. Montgomery County replaces Elrich with a centrist like Blair
I. Montgomery County replaces Elrich with a Republican
J. State senate loses supermajority
K. MoCo elects a Republican to something somewhere
A is entirely possible. Thing is, has Steele officially entered yet? He's really running out of runway.
B probably not, unless said regular right winger is running against someone hard left with other baggage. Schulz seems to be filling that role. Dan Cox if he sneaks to the nomination loses 70-30 against a Franchot and 60-40 against a Ben Jealous clone. Schulz loses 55-45 to Franchot and may win a squeaker 51-49 against a Ben Jealous clone. Key is whether she dabbles too much in the Trumpism.
C Hogan's the best hope the GOP has. Klacik might be able to make it a 60-30 race (there's some perennial candidates floating around per Wikipedia.) Hogan has been making noise like he wants a bigger stage after he leaves office.
D Rutherford or Steele, maybe. So far none of the declared candidates even has a Wikipedia page. (Dunno if Rutherford said "no Governor" or "no more electoral politics"). For Steele I can see the appeal of being the Republican's version of Joe Manchin as opposed to being the vetoing machine in Annapolis.
E The MD legislature is looking to pitch a shutout. You'd have to carve a district that is only the northern counties from Garrett to Carroll, with possibly a chunk of Damascus or Glenelg if you must hit up Montgomery or Howard to fill out the population.
F Possible that MD-06 flips but isn't most of the growth in the Frederick-Urbana-Clarksville corridor?
G You listed the order they'd flip back.
H Entirely possible. On the other hand, it's not like Elrich has been making students march through Silver Spring singing the Internationale. It helps if you have someone running to Elrich's left and/or the GOP stays silent for the election.
I This is dead girl/live boy territory veering into dead boy/decomposing girl. You'd need a centrist Dem, a regular Republican (if you took Ficker's opinions out of Ficker, and put them into an appealing story), and a "disappointed Green" running to Elrich's left.
J Quite possible. Sen-3 (Ron Young's seat) is coming open and it'd be one of the first to flip.
K 1 (hugs the Potomac from Poolesville to Bethesda) and 2 (everything north/west of Germantown) have had Republicans this millennium. Not sure which of the two incumbents there are weaker, and I can see a Republican winning if he runs on actual local issues, doesn't scream about "TAXPAYERS", and the Democrat is a loon looking to relive the glory days of the 1980s era Berkeley City Council.