So how will the Red Wave reach Maryland?
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Anonymous
| For an R to win, D voters don't have to switch. They just have to stay home. That's what happened in VA. Frustrated voters who feel that their issues aren't being heard are more inclined to sit out elections. It is a serious risk. |
Anonymous
| Except Montgomery County is not Loudoun County. Damascus and Poolesville maybe. Like it or not - this is an objective statement - Montgomery County is just left of center and has been for decades. Not just Takoma Park and Silver Spring, though the downcounty area has a lot of very loud, very active voters… and they are living breathing people who routinely get out and vote in greater numbers than those who sit online complaining about them. Elrich won 65% of the vote when there was a viable Independent challenger. The county still voted for Jealous over Hogan. Jamie Raskin is extremely popular. So is Van Hollen. The majority of people in MoCo are very liberal if not considerably left, compared with Virginia or with national politics. |
Anonymous
I agree MD will go red Ugh Dems are lazy |
Anonymous
You're foolishly basing it on just diversity. What diversity anyway? The entire county is run by liberals and they are intent to keep it that way doing whatever they can including gerrymandering the voting districts. |
BlueFredneck
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A is entirely possible. Thing is, has Steele officially entered yet? He's really running out of runway. B probably not, unless said regular right winger is running against someone hard left with other baggage. Schulz seems to be filling that role. Dan Cox if he sneaks to the nomination loses 70-30 against a Franchot and 60-40 against a Ben Jealous clone. Schulz loses 55-45 to Franchot and may win a squeaker 51-49 against a Ben Jealous clone. Key is whether she dabbles too much in the Trumpism. C Hogan's the best hope the GOP has. Klacik might be able to make it a 60-30 race (there's some perennial candidates floating around per Wikipedia.) Hogan has been making noise like he wants a bigger stage after he leaves office. D Rutherford or Steele, maybe. So far none of the declared candidates even has a Wikipedia page. (Dunno if Rutherford said "no Governor" or "no more electoral politics"). For Steele I can see the appeal of being the Republican's version of Joe Manchin as opposed to being the vetoing machine in Annapolis. E The MD legislature is looking to pitch a shutout. You'd have to carve a district that is only the northern counties from Garrett to Carroll, with possibly a chunk of Damascus or Glenelg if you must hit up Montgomery or Howard to fill out the population. F Possible that MD-06 flips but isn't most of the growth in the Frederick-Urbana-Clarksville corridor? G You listed the order they'd flip back. H Entirely possible. On the other hand, it's not like Elrich has been making students march through Silver Spring singing the Internationale. It helps if you have someone running to Elrich's left and/or the GOP stays silent for the election. I This is dead girl/live boy territory veering into dead boy/decomposing girl. You'd need a centrist Dem, a regular Republican (if you took Ficker's opinions out of Ficker, and put them into an appealing story), and a "disappointed Green" running to Elrich's left. J Quite possible. Sen-3 (Ron Young's seat) is coming open and it'd be one of the first to flip. K 1 (hugs the Potomac from Poolesville to Bethesda) and 2 (everything north/west of Germantown) have had Republicans this millennium. Not sure which of the two incumbents there are weaker, and I can see a Republican winning if he runs on actual local issues, doesn't scream about "TAXPAYERS", and the Democrat is a loon looking to relive the glory days of the 1980s era Berkeley City Council. |
Anonymous
I will switch to vote R. And most of the parents I know feel the same way. |
Anonymous
NP. How is that fear-mongering? Assualts and violent crime HAS increased. Both in the schools (quite dramatically) and in the general community. |
Anonymous
Correct and it can be attributed in part to the current political climate which is anti-police. It can also be attributed to the pandemic. It's not all just one thing. But politicians have control over their anti-police rhetoric and can tone it down. AND stop cutting police officer positions out of the budget. |
Anonymous
Maybe if we make everyone a cop, we will solve our crime problem! There's never enough police after all! |
Anonymous
There really aren't. But I know that doesn't fit your confirmation bias. And marginalized communities suffer. Sane people want police. They just want better, safer, and more just policing. "Even more, Williams and his coauthors find that, in the average city, larger police forces result in Black lives saved at about twice the rate of white lives saved (relative to their percentage of the population). When you consider African Americans are much more likely to live in dense, poverty-stricken areas with high homicide rates — leading to more opportunities for police officers to potentially prevent victimization — that may help explain this finding." https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/04/20/988769793/when-you-add-more-police-to-a-city-what-happens https://www.nber.org/papers/w28202?utm_source=npr_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=20210419&utm_term=5326149&utm_campaign=money&utm_id=49355949&orgid=&utm_att1=money |
Anonymous
Snarky comments doesn't change the fact [yes, an actual FACT, not an opinion], that violent crimes are up. And Sadly, in schools, they are WAY up. |
Anonymous
Due to anti-SRO? Fear-mongering and Fox news propaganda |
Anonymous
Yeah, the 3 parents that you know. That will teach MoCo a lesson. 
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Anonymous
PP here that said I and the parents I know will switch. It's cute that you think I only know 3 other families. But for FWIW, you're right. the dozens of us that I know (mostly upcounty) won't flip this county. But it MAY be enough to get someone like Blair in the CE seat. Or, at least, send a message to folks that the super progressive ideas are great, but don't mean squat if you can't get the fundamentals in order, like lowering crime and having an operational school system. I've been called a racist more in the past 2 years than the rest of my life combined. And it all boils down to one idea: I'm progressive and believe in equity. And the most equitable thing we can do is to get children of color reading at grade level. That will do more for their lives and careers than any anti-racist circle time will ever do. And in order to do that, you need to have safe schools, where the children feel comfortable learning. And you need to get them to school on time, every day, i.e. a functioning bus system. And you need to have teachers with expertise in their respective subject matters. which means expediting the hiring process. Or paying subs more. Etc. Etc. But instead, the leadership in this county, both on the council and in the school system, focus on the things that make the twitterverse go aflutter. And the kids (especially at risk children of color) fall further behind |
Anonymous
Nitpicking here but it seems like your problem is more with the Hans Riemer types than the Elrich types. Elrich is an ideological leftist, but more of a pragmatist in terms of governing. That’s why he’s for replacing SROs with CROs, meaning that a resource officer will be available on call rather than an omnipresent intimidating police force. Riemer wants to cater to the twitterverse and abolish them altogether. Meanwhile, Elrich is focused on reducing the achievement gap and investing in early childhood education, especially for those of high need. Riemer and the Council are the ones virtue signaling about vague social justice issues. Blair’s positions are unclear. He used to say he was for universal free pre-K. Not sure now. He is anti-police reform and thinks cops are great as is, FWIW. I don’t trust Blair simply because he just kind of follows the political winds, he doesn’t seem to be grounded in anything. |