Elrich Leads MoCo CE Polls by Large Margin

[Anonymous]

Erlich is a former Union teacher. How can he speak against what his union wants him to say? They are the key to his re-election. You can’t fault a Zebra for having stripes...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Erlich is a former Union teacher. How can he speak against what his union wants him to say? They are the key to his re-election. You can’t fault a Zebra for having stripes...

Love how Riemer is trying to distance himself for all of this and come out as the champion for opening or the champion for caution depending on you want to hear. The county’s board of health ultimately sets public health policy. The board of health is … the county council. Riemer is a member of the county council. The only important thing to remember is that Riemer voted in favor of every single closing and every single restriction. Every. Single. One. Of. Them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Erlich is a former Union teacher. How can he speak against what his union wants him to say? They are the key to his re-election. You can’t fault a Zebra for having stripes...

Love how Riemer is trying to distance himself for all of this and come out as the champion for opening or the champion for caution depending on you want to hear. The county’s board of health ultimately sets public health policy. The board of health is … the county council. Riemer is a member of the county council. The only important thing to remember is that Riemer voted in favor of every single closing and every single restriction. Every. Single. One. Of. Them.

The defining feature of Hans Riemer is that he refuses to ever be accountable and held responsible for anything.

[Anonymous]

^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

I wonder how high his unfavorable rating is. I'd have to guess it's >50 percent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

Trump was well know as well. Not always a good thing.

[Anonymous]

I will vote for Blair in the primary. if he loses the primary, I will vote for the Republican candidate in the general. The other 3 candidates have no appeal to me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I will vote for Blair in the primary. if he loses the primary, I will vote for the Republican candidate in the general. The other 3 candidates have no appeal to me.

I'm voting Blair, too, although he's an unknown.

I find it very difficult to choose the lesser of the three evils, though. All three seem unbelievably self serving and very beholden to special interest groups.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

I wonder how high his unfavorable rating is. I'd have to guess it's >50 percent.

I’d doubt that he has 50% name recognition from registered Democrats.

But it’s highly likely his unfavorables run 2-to-1 against his favorables, which is pretty bad when you’re polling at 12%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

I wonder how high his unfavorable rating is. I'd have to guess it's >50 percent.

I’d doubt that he has 50% name recognition from registered Democrats.

But it’s highly likely his unfavorables run 2-to-1 against his favorables, which is pretty bad when you’re polling at 12%.

Elrich is probably at 50-60, and I’d guess maybe a third of people can name more than two county council members.

It was this Democratic but not in the weeds crowd that put Elrich over the top.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

I wonder how high his unfavorable rating is. I'd have to guess it's >50 percent.

I’d doubt that he has 50% name recognition from registered Democrats.

But it’s highly likely his unfavorables run 2-to-1 against his favorables, which is pretty bad when you’re polling at 12%.

Elrich is probably at 50-60, and I’d guess maybe a third of people can name more than two county council members.

It was this Democratic but not in the weeds crowd that put Elrich over the top.

I would put Elrich’s name recognition higher, probably 75% for registered Democrats. I don’t think it’s a mistake that Elrich’s current polling matches his vote % from last time. He has a highly dedicated group of people that know him and support him that are spread out all over the county. That’s primarily because as an at large member, for specific groups/areas, he really took on their cause and supported them/championed their issue. People don’t forget that. There is also just a lot of registered Democrats who would never vote for Elrich because of his overall political ideology, but not any specific thing he’s done or not done. By contrast, if you listen to Riemer, he actually sometimes speaks quite disparagingly of various communities in this county and has proposed and implemented policies that actually harm specific areas, particularly western and upcounty areas, but obviously never his immediate community. People remember that too. And anyone that has interacted with Riemer knows that lacks substance, concern or follow-up, even on the issues he claims are his priorities. Many people use the word “liar” or similar about Riemer, you’ll hear a lot of things about Elrich but never that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

I wonder how high his unfavorable rating is. I'd have to guess it's >50 percent.

I’d doubt that he has 50% name recognition from registered Democrats.

But it’s highly likely his unfavorables run 2-to-1 against his favorables, which is pretty bad when you’re polling at 12%.

Elrich is probably at 50-60, and I’d guess maybe a third of people can name more than two county council members.

It was this Democratic but not in the weeds crowd that put Elrich over the top.

I would put Elrich’s name recognition higher, probably 75% for registered Democrats. I don’t think it’s a mistake that Elrich’s current polling matches his vote % from last time. He has a highly dedicated group of people that know him and support him that are spread out all over the county. That’s primarily because as an at large member, for specific groups/areas, he really took on their cause and supported them/championed their issue. People don’t forget that. There is also just a lot of registered Democrats who would never vote for Elrich because of his overall political ideology, but not any specific thing he’s done or not done. By contrast, if you listen to Riemer, he actually sometimes speaks quite disparagingly of various communities in this county and has proposed and implemented policies that actually harm specific areas, particularly western and upcounty areas, but obviously never his immediate community. People remember that too. And anyone that has interacted with Riemer knows that lacks substance, concern or follow-up, even on the issues he claims are his priorities. Many people use the word “liar” or similar about Riemer, you’ll hear a lot of things about Elrich but never that.

Great analysis, but the polls show that Elrich is polling above his % from last time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

I wonder how high his unfavorable rating is. I'd have to guess it's >50 percent.

I’d doubt that he has 50% name recognition from registered Democrats.

But it’s highly likely his unfavorables run 2-to-1 against his favorables, which is pretty bad when you’re polling at 12%.

Elrich is probably at 50-60, and I’d guess maybe a third of people can name more than two county council members.

It was this Democratic but not in the weeds crowd that put Elrich over the top.

I would put Elrich’s name recognition higher, probably 75% for registered Democrats. I don’t think it’s a mistake that Elrich’s current polling matches his vote % from last time. He has a highly dedicated group of people that know him and support him that are spread out all over the county. That’s primarily because as an at large member, for specific groups/areas, he really took on their cause and supported them/championed their issue. People don’t forget that. There is also just a lot of registered Democrats who would never vote for Elrich because of his overall political ideology, but not any specific thing he’s done or not done. By contrast, if you listen to Riemer, he actually sometimes speaks quite disparagingly of various communities in this county and has proposed and implemented policies that actually harm specific areas, particularly western and upcounty areas, but obviously never his immediate community. People remember that too. And anyone that has interacted with Riemer knows that lacks substance, concern or follow-up, even on the issues he claims are his priorities. Many people use the word “liar” or similar about Riemer, you’ll hear a lot of things about Elrich but never that.

Great analysis, but the polls show that Elrich is polling above his % from last time.

Good point. He got 29% of the primary electorate last time. He’s now polling “high 30s”. It shows the power of incumbency. He’ll probably finish Election Day in 40s, like when Leggett was primaried.

David Blair has to got to be wondering WTF. He blows $10m last time and cannot even count on 100% of “Blair voters” this time around. He got 29% last time and I believe the Blair vote share is probably capped at 32%, which is what Doug Duncan got when he primaried Leggett. It’s basically the same people. He would probably do a lot better electorally if he was clearly his own man. It’s not clear how closely tied he is to the old Doug Duncan machine.

While polling below 50% does show some weakness, I think it’s quite clear that Riemer and Hucker are primarily taking votes away from Elrich and not Blair. So in a one-on-one contest with Blair, the Elrich lead is probably much larger and he should cruise to re-election unless someone like Jawando enters the race and captures a big chunk of his supporters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Good point. He got 29% of the primary electorate last time. He’s now polling “high 30s”. It shows the power of incumbency. He’ll probably finish Election Day in 40s, like when Leggett was primaried.

David Blair has to got to be wondering WTF. He blows $10m last time and cannot even count on 100% of “Blair voters” this time around. He got 29% last time and I believe the Blair vote share is probably capped at 32%, which is what Doug Duncan got when he primaried Leggett. It’s basically the same people. He would probably do a lot better electorally if he was clearly his own man. It’s not clear how closely tied he is to the old Doug Duncan machine.

While polling below 50% does show some weakness, I think it’s quite clear that Riemer and Hucker are primarily taking votes away from Elrich and not Blair. So in a one-on-one contest with Blair, the Elrich lead is probably much larger and he should cruise to re-election unless someone like Jawando enters the race and captures a big chunk of his supporters.

I doubt Jawando enters the race. He has too much to lose. I think in two cycles we'll see a Friedson-Jawando showdown for the soul of Montgomery County. Friedson should see Riemer's crushing defeat as a warning that developer friendly, supply-side policies don't play well in a Democratic primary because people are smart enough to see that hasn't worked.