Elrich Leads MoCo CE Polls by Large Margin

[Anonymous]

Like y'all were ever going to vote for anyone other than a white progressive. LOL at you trolls wanting to run a MoCo R candidate. You want Elrich gone you need a moderate D POC running on crime reduction and education. That person doesn't exist in MD.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Like y'all were ever going to vote for anyone other than a white progressive. LOL at you trolls wanting to run a MoCo R candidate. You want Elrich gone you need a moderate D POC running on crime reduction and education. That person doesn't exist in MD.

In general, this Democrat will vote for a moderate Democrat, regardless of color. Education, business growth, and more efficient govt are my priorities. Otherwise, I will vote Republican. [I have probably voted for Democratic candidate in 95% plus election.]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

I wonder how high his unfavorable rating is. I'd have to guess it's >50 percent.

I’d doubt that he has 50% name recognition from registered Democrats.

But it’s highly likely his unfavorables run 2-to-1 against his favorables, which is pretty bad when you’re polling at 12%.

Elrich is probably at 50-60, and I’d guess maybe a third of people can name more than two county council members.

It was this Democratic but not in the weeds crowd that put Elrich over the top.

I would put Elrich’s name recognition higher, probably 75% for registered Democrats. I don’t think it’s a mistake that Elrich’s current polling matches his vote % from last time. He has a highly dedicated group of people that know him and support him that are spread out all over the county. That’s primarily because as an at large member, for specific groups/areas, he really took on their cause and supported them/championed their issue. People don’t forget that. There is also just a lot of registered Democrats who would never vote for Elrich because of his overall political ideology, but not any specific thing he’s done or not done. By contrast, if you listen to Riemer, he actually sometimes speaks quite disparagingly of various communities in this county and has proposed and implemented policies that actually harm specific areas, particularly western and upcounty areas, but obviously never his immediate community. People remember that too. And anyone that has interacted with Riemer knows that lacks substance, concern or follow-up, even on the issues he claims are his priorities. Many people use the word “liar” or similar about Riemer, you’ll hear a lot of things about Elrich but never that.

Great analysis, but the polls show that Elrich is polling above his % from last time.

Good point. He got 29% of the primary electorate last time. He’s now polling “high 30s”. It shows the power of incumbency. He’ll probably finish Election Day in 40s, like when Leggett was primaried.

David Blair has to got to be wondering WTF. He blows $10m last time and cannot even count on 100% of “Blair voters” this time around. He got 29% last time and I believe the Blair vote share is probably capped at 32%, which is what Doug Duncan got when he primaried Leggett. It’s basically the same people. He would probably do a lot better electorally if he was clearly his own man. It’s not clear how closely tied he is to the old Doug Duncan machine.

While polling below 50% does show some weakness, I think it’s quite clear that Riemer and Hucker are primarily taking votes away from Elrich and not Blair. So in a one-on-one contest with Blair, the Elrich lead is probably much larger and he should cruise to re-election unless someone like Jawando enters the race and captures a big chunk of his supporters.

This is definitely not true. If you are more intimately familiar with county politics, Riemer and Elrich do not share any base of support. They probably detest each other more than Blair. It’s not even ideological left vs right or moderate but on development, so called YIMBY/NIMBY issues. Riemer’s fans would vote for Blair over Elrich, they think Elrich is the NIMBY devil for not supporting all of their pet urbanist projects. Riemer is basically Doug Duncan/Steve Silverman in a younger “hip” Obama-bro package.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

I wonder how high his unfavorable rating is. I'd have to guess it's >50 percent.

I’d doubt that he has 50% name recognition from registered Democrats.

But it’s highly likely his unfavorables run 2-to-1 against his favorables, which is pretty bad when you’re polling at 12%.

Elrich is probably at 50-60, and I’d guess maybe a third of people can name more than two county council members.

It was this Democratic but not in the weeds crowd that put Elrich over the top.

I would put Elrich’s name recognition higher, probably 75% for registered Democrats. I don’t think it’s a mistake that Elrich’s current polling matches his vote % from last time. He has a highly dedicated group of people that know him and support him that are spread out all over the county. That’s primarily because as an at large member, for specific groups/areas, he really took on their cause and supported them/championed their issue. People don’t forget that. There is also just a lot of registered Democrats who would never vote for Elrich because of his overall political ideology, but not any specific thing he’s done or not done. By contrast, if you listen to Riemer, he actually sometimes speaks quite disparagingly of various communities in this county and has proposed and implemented policies that actually harm specific areas, particularly western and upcounty areas, but obviously never his immediate community. People remember that too. And anyone that has interacted with Riemer knows that lacks substance, concern or follow-up, even on the issues he claims are his priorities. Many people use the word “liar” or similar about Riemer, you’ll hear a lot of things about Elrich but never that.

Great analysis, but the polls show that Elrich is polling above his % from last time.

Good point. He got 29% of the primary electorate last time. He’s now polling “high 30s”. It shows the power of incumbency. He’ll probably finish Election Day in 40s, like when Leggett was primaried.

David Blair has to got to be wondering WTF. He blows $10m last time and cannot even count on 100% of “Blair voters” this time around. He got 29% last time and I believe the Blair vote share is probably capped at 32%, which is what Doug Duncan got when he primaried Leggett. It’s basically the same people. He would probably do a lot better electorally if he was clearly his own man. It’s not clear how closely tied he is to the old Doug Duncan machine.

While polling below 50% does show some weakness, I think it’s quite clear that Riemer and Hucker are primarily taking votes away from Elrich and not Blair. So in a one-on-one contest with Blair, the Elrich lead is probably much larger and he should cruise to re-election unless someone like Jawando enters the race and captures a big chunk of his supporters.

This is definitely not true. If you are more intimately familiar with county politics, Riemer and Elrich do not share any base of support. They probably detest each other more than Blair. It’s not even ideological left vs right or moderate but on development, so called YIMBY/NIMBY issues. Riemer’s fans would vote for Blair over Elrich, they think Elrich is the NIMBY devil for not supporting all of their pet urbanist projects. Riemer is basically Doug Duncan/Steve Silverman in a younger “hip” Obama-bro package.

Any supporter of Thrive is not a Duncan/Silverman descendant. Upzoning SFH areas is not what is required.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Like y'all were ever going to vote for anyone other than a white progressive. LOL at you trolls wanting to run a MoCo R candidate. You want Elrich gone you need a moderate D POC running on crime reduction and education. That person doesn't exist in MD.

Um , that’s Craig Rice. At least it was until he sold out to Jawando and removed SROs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^ so well said! I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win. I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair. He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.

One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you.

I wonder how high his unfavorable rating is. I'd have to guess it's >50 percent.

I’d doubt that he has 50% name recognition from registered Democrats.

But it’s highly likely his unfavorables run 2-to-1 against his favorables, which is pretty bad when you’re polling at 12%.

Elrich is probably at 50-60, and I’d guess maybe a third of people can name more than two county council members.

It was this Democratic but not in the weeds crowd that put Elrich over the top.

I would put Elrich’s name recognition higher, probably 75% for registered Democrats. I don’t think it’s a mistake that Elrich’s current polling matches his vote % from last time. He has a highly dedicated group of people that know him and support him that are spread out all over the county. That’s primarily because as an at large member, for specific groups/areas, he really took on their cause and supported them/championed their issue. People don’t forget that. There is also just a lot of registered Democrats who would never vote for Elrich because of his overall political ideology, but not any specific thing he’s done or not done. By contrast, if you listen to Riemer, he actually sometimes speaks quite disparagingly of various communities in this county and has proposed and implemented policies that actually harm specific areas, particularly western and upcounty areas, but obviously never his immediate community. People remember that too. And anyone that has interacted with Riemer knows that lacks substance, concern or follow-up, even on the issues he claims are his priorities. Many people use the word “liar” or similar about Riemer, you’ll hear a lot of things about Elrich but never that.

Great analysis, but the polls show that Elrich is polling above his % from last time.

Good point. He got 29% of the primary electorate last time. He’s now polling “high 30s”. It shows the power of incumbency. He’ll probably finish Election Day in 40s, like when Leggett was primaried.

David Blair has to got to be wondering WTF. He blows $10m last time and cannot even count on 100% of “Blair voters” this time around. He got 29% last time and I believe the Blair vote share is probably capped at 32%, which is what Doug Duncan got when he primaried Leggett. It’s basically the same people. He would probably do a lot better electorally if he was clearly his own man. It’s not clear how closely tied he is to the old Doug Duncan machine.

While polling below 50% does show some weakness, I think it’s quite clear that Riemer and Hucker are primarily taking votes away from Elrich and not Blair. So in a one-on-one contest with Blair, the Elrich lead is probably much larger and he should cruise to re-election unless someone like Jawando enters the race and captures a big chunk of his supporters.

This is definitely not true. If you are more intimately familiar with county politics, Riemer and Elrich do not share any base of support. They probably detest each other more than Blair. It’s not even ideological left vs right or moderate but on development, so called YIMBY/NIMBY issues. Riemer’s fans would vote for Blair over Elrich, they think Elrich is the NIMBY devil for not supporting all of their pet urbanist projects. Riemer is basically Doug Duncan/Steve Silverman in a younger “hip” Obama-bro package.

Duncan was much smarter than Riemer and I never thought of Duncan as a liar.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Like y'all were ever going to vote for anyone other than a white progressive. LOL at you trolls wanting to run a MoCo R candidate. You want Elrich gone you need a moderate D POC running on crime reduction and education. That person doesn't exist in MD.

Um , that’s Craig Rice. At least it was until he sold out to Jawando and removed SROs.

The idea that a Moderate D POC that is pro crime reduction and education doesn’t exist in MD is ludicrous. Apparently the PP never heard of Ike Leggett or Rushern Baker or Calvin Ball or [insert any number of Black MD politicians].

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Duncan was much smarter than Riemer and I never thought of Duncan as a liar.

It’s incredible how many people have independently come to the same conclusions about this guy.

[Anonymous]

At least riemer isnt a poor black boy as a political ploy to get votes. Not excusing the cops but two wrongs don’t make a right.


The big white savior in all his glory

https://www.gofundme.com/f/funds-for-maryland-boy-handcuffed-by-police

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:At least riemer isnt EXPLOITING a poor black boy as a political ploy to get votes. Not excusing the cops but two wrongs don’t make a right.


The big white savior in all his glory

https://www.gofundme.com/f/funds-for-maryland-boy-handcuffed-by-police

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:At least riemer isnt a poor black boy as a political ploy to get votes. Not excusing the cops but two wrongs don’t make a right.


The big white savior in all his glory

https://www.gofundme.com/f/funds-for-maryland-boy-handcuffed-by-police

The family apparently has legal bills to pay so getting them help is important. However, the optics of Hucker initiating this and putting his name on it while in campaign mode rightly look really bad. If he actually cared about this boy and his family, he would not be self-promoting himself to raise them funds. He could have reached out to someone in the community to set this fundraiser up and which he then could promote and get other CMs to promote. What he’s doing is pretty messed up, honestly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:At least riemer isnt a poor black boy as a political ploy to get votes. Not excusing the cops but two wrongs don’t make a right.


The big white savior in all his glory

https://www.gofundme.com/f/funds-for-maryland-boy-handcuffed-by-police

The family apparently has legal bills to pay so getting them help is important. However, the optics of Hucker initiating this and putting his name on it while in campaign mode rightly look really bad. If he actually cared about this boy and his family, he would not be self-promoting himself to raise them funds. He could have reached out to someone in the community to set this fundraiser up and which he then could promote and get other CMs to promote. What he’s doing is pretty messed up, honestly.

Or he could have paid their legal bills himself and not said anything.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:At least riemer isnt a poor black boy as a political ploy to get votes. Not excusing the cops but two wrongs don’t make a right.


The big white savior in all his glory

https://www.gofundme.com/f/funds-for-maryland-boy-handcuffed-by-police

The family apparently has legal bills to pay so getting them help is important. However, the optics of Hucker initiating this and putting his name on it while in campaign mode rightly look really bad. If he actually cared about this boy and his family, he would not be self-promoting himself to raise them funds. He could have reached out to someone in the community to set this fundraiser up and which he then could promote and get other CMs to promote. What he’s doing is pretty messed up, honestly.

Or he could have paid their legal bills himself and not said anything.

Or he could have bought that family a house. Or funded a 529 account for the kid. Or… c’mon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m voting for Hans because we need more housing, everywhere, anywhere, every day of the week. Build, baby, build.

Except in your neighborhood.

[Anonymous]

I never paid any attention to local politics before the pandemic, but Elrich has been overall an excellent pandemic manager.