Reply to Elrich Leads MoCo CE Polls by Large Margin

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]^^ so well said!  I was going to say Reimer is a liar who says whatever you want to hear, but yours is better.

Elrich won't win.  I don't like any of the current Council members running or Blair, but if I were a betting person, my money would be on Blair.  He almost got it last time, and this time will eek it out.[/quote]
One of the funniest things in the article is Riemer trying to promote himself saying, “I am well known in the county.” Uh, yes Hans, people are quite familiar with you. [/quote]

I wonder how high his unfavorable rating is. I'd have to guess it's >50 percent.[/quote]
I’d doubt that he has 50% name recognition from registered Democrats.

But it’s highly likely his unfavorables run 2-to-1 against his favorables, which is pretty bad when you’re polling at 12%. [/quote]

Elrich is probably at 50-60, and I’d guess maybe a third of people can name more than two county council members.

It was this Democratic but not in the weeds crowd that put Elrich over the top. [/quote]
I would put Elrich’s name recognition higher, probably 75% for registered Democrats. I don’t think it’s a mistake that Elrich’s current polling matches his vote % from last time. He has a highly dedicated group of people that know him and support him that are spread out all over the county. That’s primarily because as an at large member, for specific groups/areas, he really took on their cause and supported them/championed their issue. People don’t forget that. There is also just a lot of registered Democrats who would never vote for Elrich because of his overall political ideology, but not any specific thing he’s done or not done. By contrast, if you listen to Riemer, he actually sometimes speaks quite disparagingly of various communities in this county and has proposed and implemented policies that actually harm specific areas, particularly western and upcounty areas, but obviously never his immediate community. People remember that too. And anyone that has interacted with Riemer knows that lacks substance, concern or follow-up, even on the issues he claims are his priorities. Many people use the word “liar” or similar about Riemer, you’ll hear a lot of things about Elrich but never that. [/quote]

Great analysis, but the polls show that Elrich is polling above his % from last time.[/quote]

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