Reply to Elrich Leads MoCo CE Polls by Large Margin

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
Good point. He got 29% of the primary electorate last time. He’s now polling “high 30s”. It shows the power of incumbency. He’ll probably finish Election Day in 40s, like when Leggett was primaried.

David Blair has to got to be wondering WTF. He blows $10m last time and cannot even count on 100% of “Blair voters” this time around. He got 29% last time and I believe the Blair vote share is probably capped at 32%, which is what Doug Duncan got when he primaried Leggett. It’s basically the same people. He would probably do a lot better electorally if he was clearly his own man. It’s not clear how closely tied he is to the old Doug Duncan machine.

While polling below 50% does show some weakness, I think it’s quite clear that Riemer and Hucker are primarily taking votes away from Elrich and not Blair. So in a one-on-one contest with Blair, the Elrich lead is probably much larger and he should cruise to re-election unless someone like Jawando enters the race and captures a big chunk of his supporters. [/quote]

I doubt Jawando enters the race. He has too much to lose. I think in two cycles we'll see a Friedson-Jawando showdown for the soul of Montgomery County. Friedson should see Riemer's crushing defeat as a warning that developer friendly, supply-side policies don't play well in a Democratic primary because people are smart enough to see that hasn't worked.[/quote]

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