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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Hardy - 135

They only moved 101 off wait list last year, so aren't my odds just 0?[/quote]

Lottery Nerd here (LN moving forward) - for 6th grade?[/quote]

Yes, 6th.[/quote]

LN here. Sadly, your odds are very, very low. Hardy has never let more than 101 kids off the waitlist. You should plan for something else.

That being said, I will use this moment to note a few situations where my back-of-the-napkin predictions are wrong. For one thing - some people do leave the waitlist! I think that's pretty rare (I'm basing that on nothing, just gut instinct) since it doesn't get anyone anything and it requires actual action. But theoretically, if a bunch of people give up on Hardy and remove themselves from the waitlist, AND they take a ton of people, you've got a sliver of a hope of a something. But we're in the fractions of percents here.

In general, while the numbers I'm using are waitlist length and offers, the waitlist does change! People get different preferences, post-lottery applications get added, and people leave the waitlist, and we have no data on how much that happens. Adds a touch of uncertainty to this whole exercise. And my guess is that is usually not in people's favor, as the most common changes are new preferences (like Sibling Accepted). [/quote]

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