Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any military expertise on how Russia could not even defend its own air space against helicopters? Getting bombed on their own soil is another defeat.

Three possible scenarios: a.) Russian false flag, b.) incredible incompetence, given the pilots had to fly through at least 100km of hostile occupied territory bristling with all kinds of antiaircraft weaponry, c.) miracle Ghost of Kyiv shit.
I personally don't believe in miracles...

General Mark Hertling suggested that the "strike into Belgorod required more than just 2 helicopters striking a target. It required analysis of the target set, planning of the mission, preparation of the routes, jamming of the enemy radar, and a precise strike ability."

The also knew which ones were full. Which suggests solid tactical intel. HUMINT is probably solid. Maybe SIGINT but not sure Ukraine has that capability.

It's been publicly acknowledged that the US military was in Ukraine training their forces for years before this war started. I haven't seen press reports that other NATO countries were doing the same, but I expect they were. I don't think it's too far of a leap to guess that there's a lot of technology, training, and analysis techniques that have been provided to Ukraine.

I'll also say that I don't think it passes the "Washington Post test" IF - big IF we (the US) had this intelligence and didn't share it with Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any military expertise on how Russia could not even defend its own air space against helicopters? Getting bombed on their own soil is another defeat.

Three possible scenarios: a.) Russian false flag, b.) incredible incompetence, given the pilots had to fly through at least 100km of hostile occupied territory bristling with all kinds of antiaircraft weaponry, c.) miracle Ghost of Kyiv shit.
I personally don't believe in miracles...

General Mark Hertling suggested that the "strike into Belgorod required more than just 2 helicopters striking a target. It required analysis of the target set, planning of the mission, preparation of the routes, jamming of the enemy radar, and a precise strike ability."

The also knew which ones were full. Which suggests solid tactical intel. HUMINT is probably solid. Maybe SIGINT but not sure Ukraine has that capability.

It's been publicly acknowledged that the US military was in Ukraine training their forces for years before this war started. I haven't seen press reports that other NATO countries were doing the same, but I expect they were. I don't think it's too far of a leap to guess that there's a lot of technology, training, and analysis techniques that have been provided to Ukraine.

I'll also say that I don't think it passes the "Washington Post test" IF - big IF we (the US) had this intelligence and didn't share it with Ukraine.

No, you cannot train persistent ISR.
The only way to know what tanks are full or empty is thermal signatures typically. That means you have intel during the day, and how it cools when the sun goes down let’s you know. Full tanks will keep heat, empty will not.

Everything on this planet has a thermal signature and it is hard to hide from.

Ukraine had intel from someone or picked comms or most likely had boots on the ground feeding them which ones were full.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any military expertise on how Russia could not even defend its own air space against helicopters? Getting bombed on their own soil is another defeat.

Three possible scenarios: a.) Russian false flag, b.) incredible incompetence, given the pilots had to fly through at least 100km of hostile occupied territory bristling with all kinds of antiaircraft weaponry, c.) miracle Ghost of Kyiv shit.
I personally don't believe in miracles...

General Mark Hertling suggested that the "strike into Belgorod required more than just 2 helicopters striking a target. It required analysis of the target set, planning of the mission, preparation of the routes, jamming of the enemy radar, and a precise strike ability."

The also knew which ones were full. Which suggests solid tactical intel. HUMINT is probably solid. Maybe SIGINT but not sure Ukraine has that capability.

Aren't we providing SIGINT, and substantial amounts of it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any military expertise on how Russia could not even defend its own air space against helicopters? Getting bombed on their own soil is another defeat.

Three possible scenarios: a.) Russian false flag, b.) incredible incompetence, given the pilots had to fly through at least 100km of hostile occupied territory bristling with all kinds of antiaircraft weaponry, c.) miracle Ghost of Kyiv shit.
I personally don't believe in miracles...

General Mark Hertling suggested that the "strike into Belgorod required more than just 2 helicopters striking a target. It required analysis of the target set, planning of the mission, preparation of the routes, jamming of the enemy radar, and a precise strike ability."

The also knew which ones were full. Which suggests solid tactical intel. HUMINT is probably solid. Maybe SIGINT but not sure Ukraine has that capability.

Aren't we providing SIGINT, and substantial amounts of it?

Look the Russians are not a sophisticated and modern force. They mass and attack. They are not hiding fueling supply area. They most likely had a steady stream of fuel trucks and lines of trucks leading the facility. It’s in Russia and they think they are safe.

[Anonymous]

April 3 (Reuters) - Two blasts were heard in the Russian city of Belgorod near the border with Ukraine on Sunday, two witnesses told Reuters, days after Russian authorities accused Ukrainian forces of striking a fuel depot there.

The cause of the blasts was not immediately clear. One witness said the blasts were so powerful that they rattled the windows of her home in Belgorod.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blasts-heard-russian-city-belgorod-near-border-with-ukraine-witnesses-2022-04-03/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any military expertise on how Russia could not even defend its own air space against helicopters? Getting bombed on their own soil is another defeat.

Three possible scenarios: a.) Russian false flag, b.) incredible incompetence, given the pilots had to fly through at least 100km of hostile occupied territory bristling with all kinds of antiaircraft weaponry, c.) miracle Ghost of Kyiv shit.
I personally don't believe in miracles...

General Mark Hertling suggested that the "strike into Belgorod required more than just 2 helicopters striking a target. It required analysis of the target set, planning of the mission, preparation of the routes, jamming of the enemy radar, and a precise strike ability."

The also knew which ones were full. Which suggests solid tactical intel. HUMINT is probably solid. Maybe SIGINT but not sure Ukraine has that capability.

That suggests false flag to me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any military expertise on how Russia could not even defend its own air space against helicopters? Getting bombed on their own soil is another defeat.

Three possible scenarios: a.) Russian false flag, b.) incredible incompetence, given the pilots had to fly through at least 100km of hostile occupied territory bristling with all kinds of antiaircraft weaponry, c.) miracle Ghost of Kyiv shit.
I personally don't believe in miracles...

General Mark Hertling suggested that the "strike into Belgorod required more than just 2 helicopters striking a target. It required analysis of the target set, planning of the mission, preparation of the routes, jamming of the enemy radar, and a precise strike ability."

The also knew which ones were full. Which suggests solid tactical intel. HUMINT is probably solid. Maybe SIGINT but not sure Ukraine has that capability.

That suggests false flag to me.

Okay

[Anonymous]

Jeff locked the thread on Russia hate - mainly because of escalating pushback against an anti-NATO Putin apologist who kept posting blatant lies and astoundingly wrong disinformation trying to claim NATO is worse than what Putin is doing in Russia and worse than Milosevic in the former Yugoslavia "and probably doing it now" as if NATO were lining up thousands of civilians at trenches with their hands tied behind their backs and shooting them.

I do think there needs to be condemnation and pushback within Russia. Posters (likely the same apologist) suggested "they can't, because of the FSB." I suggest watching "Winter On Fire" about the 2014 revolution in Ukraine, in which students began a resistance against Putin's puppet government in Ukraine, and persisted even against brutal beatings by Yanukovich's Berkut stormtroopers and titushky thugs. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4908644/

With much of Russia's OMON and Rosgvardia riot police deployed to Ukraine, now would be a perfect time for Russians to find their spines and rise up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

Putin is gonna control the entire Black Sea from the north And turn Ukraine and Moldova land locked with the ottomans In the south.

How is this foolish?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

Putin is gonna control the entire Black Sea from the north And turn Ukraine and Moldova land locked with the ottomans In the south.

How is this foolish?

Price being paid is much much too high.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

Putin is gonna control the entire Black Sea from the north And turn Ukraine and Moldova land locked with the ottomans In the south.

How is this foolish?

Price being paid is much much too high.

Ah ok

Yeah me and you think so.

But I can also see why someone might think it is rational. Which was Stephens argument.

A classic 19th century action

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

Putin is gonna control the entire Black Sea from the north And turn Ukraine and Moldova land locked with the ottomans In the south.

How is this foolish?

Because it's not going to happen and now Russia is a pariah state. Even India and China are going to have a hard time looking away from the massacres and rapes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

It’s like that O. Henry story, Gift of the Magi. Here I have murdered my way into this supply of LNG but no demand for it because of all the murdering.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

Putin is gonna control the entire Black Sea from the north And turn Ukraine and Moldova land locked with the ottomans In the south.

How is this foolish?

Price being paid is much much too high.

Ah ok

Yeah me and you think so.

But I can also see why someone might think it is rational. Which was Stephens argument.

A classic 19th century action

It what calculation was this a smart move? The prize is so not worth the cost