Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meh.....they sent in a bunch of teenagers and early 20s somethings (kids) conscripts with crappy supplies and weapons to serves as fresh meat to be turned into ground beef. They were used to soften up the Ukraine. Russia's advanced weaponry and elite divisions till haven't really been deployed yet. People shouldn't get confident at all that Russia has been 'struggling'. They are just getting warmed up, so I wouldn't extract a whole lot from the first week of combat.

So they sent in their 3rd string bench warmers just to confused the US military and intelligence officers?

Makes a lot of sense.

Russia does not wants to limit the loss of their most advanced equipment and heavy armor. Force the Ukrainians to use up all of their anti-tank weapons, stingers, etc. on junk equipment operated by a bunch of kids forced to enlist. Ukraine will be out of ammo soon. Molotov cocktails don't work against fearsome T90s. And who knows if they start field the T14. It's a beast.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The playbook is Grozny - pound Ukraine into submission, even if destroys all infrastructure and the populace is decimated. Elevate a ruthless strongman Ukrainian-native mobster to be the Governor that answers only to Putin.

Look at all the Chechen forces Putin has at his disposal. They are all the kids born during or after the Chechen war; they've been thoroughly placated and brainwashed to fight on behalf of the monster who murdered all their relatives.

That's the playbook for Ukraine.

Uhhh... Kadyrov's top general went to Ukraine and got killed. He's had several columns of his "elite" Chechen fighters already obliterated.

This might shock you, but there is a ton of prejudice against Muslims in Russia. Send in the Muslims to get slaughtered first as well if you are Putin.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meh.....they sent in a bunch of teenagers and early 20s somethings (kids) conscripts with crappy supplies and weapons to serves as fresh meat to be turned into ground beef. They were used to soften up the Ukraine. Russia's advanced weaponry and elite divisions till haven't really been deployed yet. People shouldn't get confident at all that Russia has been 'struggling'. They are just getting warmed up, so I wouldn't extract a whole lot from the first week of combat.

So they sent in their 3rd string bench warmers just to confused the US military and intelligence officers?

Makes a lot of sense.

Russia does not wants to limit the loss of their most advanced equipment and heavy armor. Force the Ukrainians to use up all of their anti-tank weapons, stingers, etc. on junk equipment operated by a bunch of kids forced to enlist. Ukraine will be out of ammo soon. Molotov cocktails don't work against fearsome T90s. And who knows if they start field the T14. It's a beast.

Wow you have no idea what you post about. Russia is top line equipment is junk.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The playbook is Grozny - pound Ukraine into submission, even if destroys all infrastructure and the populace is decimated. Elevate a ruthless strongman Ukrainian-native mobster to be the Governor that answers only to Putin.

Look at all the Chechen forces Putin has at his disposal. They are all the kids born during or after the Chechen war; they've been thoroughly placated and brainwashed to fight on behalf of the monster who murdered all their relatives.

That's the playbook for Ukraine.

Uhhh... Kadyrov's top general went to Ukraine and got killed. He's had several columns of his "elite" Chechen fighters already obliterated.

This might shock you, but there is a ton of prejudice against Muslims in Russia. Send in the Muslims to get slaughtered first as well if you are Putin.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Meh.....they sent in a bunch of teenagers and early 20s somethings (kids) conscripts with crappy supplies and weapons to serves as fresh meat to be turned into ground beef. They were used to soften up the Ukraine. Russia's advanced weaponry and elite divisions till haven't really been deployed yet. People shouldn't get confident at all that Russia has been 'struggling'. They are just getting warmed up, so I wouldn't extract a whole lot from the first week of combat.

DD told me that Russia sent in their 1980s tanks at first. Not clear why they did this. Maybe to save their good equipment, assuming the Ukrainians capitulated immediately?

Yes, Russia has big guns, but maybe they don't want to destroy all of Ukraine? It won't be much of a prize if it's all reduced to rubble.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Russians have lost about 5,000 and the heavy fighting has not started. Ukraine has about 200k regular plus 500k reserves. I imagine they will push this number to 2-3 million by the end of the month.

The 150k the Russians have sent in are not all combat units. Once it’s kicks off the Russians will not have a safe place anywhere in the country- IED, suicide bombings, snipers, etc.

Wrong. Not even close

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Too much corruption. It's kleptocracy and the elites skimmed too much of the fuel and food budget. Now their vehicles and armor have to be abandoned when they run out of gas and the lucky conscripts are given MRE's that expired in 2015. The unlucky ones get nothing. It's been a complete self-inflicted failure and humiliation.

Is this just conjecture? How do do you know this? Are you Russian? Do you have a Russian soldier in Ukraine who's eating expired MREs? Link?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin will use thermobaric weapons to slaughter civilians in Ukraine - especially in the cities.

The entire remaining population of Ukraine WILL fight.

Remember the grandma with sunflower seeds? She is coming back.

Only this time she will stab a kitchen knife into the neck of that Russian soldier.

Thermobaric bombs are not the end all and be all. Bombing has limited effect. You bomb an urban area it makes rumble which makes it hard to take. I think the Russians will use chemicals weapons on civilians. They are not very sophisticated and as such have very limited options. It’s mass artillery followed by armor.

You are completely insane.

the Russians will NOT use chemical weapons.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia is unable to field a 1st world army. If the Russians had invaded a NATO member it would have be very similar to what happen in the first Iraq war. Though the Iraq seemed more competent. The Nato would maybe lose one or two tanks. Russia would lose everything. That 40 mile column would be a smoking wreck in under 15 minutes.

Russia is using their elite units right now. Those units are getting their a$$ kicked. When Russia enters the cities I doubt many will be coming back. Their units will be a spent force within a month but the city will be destroyed. The Russians will be unable to supply their troops. The mud season is coming and there are only a few roads.

When the western tech starts arriving in theater(drones, laser designated Artillery, mines, stingers, anti tank systems, etc) the Russians will be in a world of hurt. I think they could lose 50-60k in this little adventure.

Wow! Are you drunk?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Too much corruption. It's kleptocracy and the elites skimmed too much of the fuel and food budget. Now their vehicles and armor have to be abandoned when they run out of gas and the lucky conscripts are given MRE's that expired in 2015. The unlucky ones get nothing. It's been a complete self-inflicted failure and humiliation.

Is this just conjecture? How do do you know this? Are you Russian? Do you have a Russian soldier in Ukraine who's eating expired MREs? Link?

Russian soldiers supplied w/ expired MREs from 2015 went viral on social media.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The playbook is Grozny - pound Ukraine into submission, even if destroys all infrastructure and the populace is decimated. Elevate a ruthless strongman Ukrainian-native mobster to be the Governor that answers only to Putin.

Look at all the Chechen forces Putin has at his disposal. They are all the kids born during or after the Chechen war; they've been thoroughly placated and brainwashed to fight on behalf of the monster who murdered all their relatives.

That's the playbook for Ukraine.

Uhhh... Kadyrov's top general went to Ukraine and got killed. He's had several columns of his "elite" Chechen fighters already obliterated.

Do you have a cite for this? I desperately want to believe, but haven't been able to find a cite.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrainian-forces-destroy-convoy-of-56-chechen-tanks-kill-general-near-kyiv-report/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10555871/Kyiv-comes-huge-aerial-artillery-bombardment-leaving-pulsing-glow-sky.html

Not verified. No way to know if it's true. Report put out by Ukraine. Both sides use propaganda.

[Anonymous]

This is an utterly worthless thread. Useless. No facts. Just buncha guesses and wishes. Wait for the facts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meh.....they sent in a bunch of teenagers and early 20s somethings (kids) conscripts with crappy supplies and weapons to serves as fresh meat to be turned into ground beef. They were used to soften up the Ukraine. Russia's advanced weaponry and elite divisions till haven't really been deployed yet. People shouldn't get confident at all that Russia has been 'struggling'. They are just getting warmed up, so I wouldn't extract a whole lot from the first week of combat.

So they sent in their 3rd string bench warmers just to confused the US military and intelligence officers?

Makes a lot of sense.

Russia does not wants to limit the loss of their most advanced equipment and heavy armor. Force the Ukrainians to use up all of their anti-tank weapons, stingers, etc. on junk equipment operated by a bunch of kids forced to enlist. Ukraine will be out of ammo soon. Molotov cocktails don't work against fearsome T90s. And who knows if they start field the T14. It's a beast.

Wow you have no idea what you post about. Russia is top line equipment is junk.

Theyve lost 54 verified tanks , included 4 T90s, already plus much much more. The Turkish drones, Javelins, and fuel shortages are decimating their equipment.

https://mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Meh.....they sent in a bunch of teenagers and early 20s somethings (kids) conscripts with crappy supplies and weapons to serves as fresh meat to be turned into ground beef. They were used to soften up the Ukraine. Russia's advanced weaponry and elite divisions till haven't really been deployed yet. People shouldn't get confident at all that Russia has been 'struggling'. They are just getting warmed up, so I wouldn't extract a whole lot from the first week of combat.

Its Ukraine not the Ukraine. You think this was all part of Russia’s master plan? You’re a fool.

[BlueFredneck]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meh.....they sent in a bunch of teenagers and early 20s somethings (kids) conscripts with crappy supplies and weapons to serves as fresh meat to be turned into ground beef. They were used to soften up the Ukraine. Russia's advanced weaponry and elite divisions till haven't really been deployed yet. People shouldn't get confident at all that Russia has been 'struggling'. They are just getting warmed up, so I wouldn't extract a whole lot from the first week of combat.

So they sent in their 3rd string bench warmers just to confused the US military and intelligence officers?

Makes a lot of sense.

Russia does not wants to limit the loss of their most advanced equipment and heavy armor. Force the Ukrainians to use up all of their anti-tank weapons, stingers, etc. on junk equipment operated by a bunch of kids forced to enlist. Ukraine will be out of ammo soon. Molotov cocktails don't work against fearsome T90s. And who knows if they start field the T14. It's a beast.

They are still field testing the T14. We might - might - see the T14 show up later this year.

More and more anti-tank weaponry is getting shipped to Ukraine. Their bigger concern is keeping cities fed if they are under siege.

Russia being on the offensive, have to worry about keeping their military fed and equipped. Failure to do so would put a damper in their plan to turn Ukraine into a set of Groznys if the ammo trucks get stuck in traffic on the E-95.

Remember, all supplies must be trucked in, Ukraine cut off all rail entries.

The 80s equipment could surely be used to help patrol the countryside in an occupation situation. I guess a rope-a-dope situation might make some sense, but any Ukrainian entity will continue to have international support and thus military supply.

It seemed like Putin tried to do a quick beheading strike against Kyiv. That ... did not work. He's had the most success in the South so far, with Mariupol besieged or nearly so. Some combination of air bombing and shelling to force a capitulation will be attempted. If the most the Russians can come up with is Yanukovich or some mayor of a city of 25k, s/he will have no credibility. Unless Putin WANTED to see his army get killed, he'd have tried fifth column activities before the war - we heard NOTHING. No plots, nothing.

Of course the Ukrainian infantry have handheld SAMs and artillery emplacements have to be protected.

Russia is trying to operate in hostile territory and further from their bases than they have in previous wars. Georgia - they went in maybe 10 miles from Abkhazia and South Ossetia and didn't seriously try to attack Tblisi. Ukraine I - only tried to take Crimea and Donbass. Chechnya - didn't have to advance as far and Grozny was about 1/8 the size of Kyiv, with better-armed defenders and FAR more international aid/sympathy. Also this is the smart phone era. We will see Russians committing even more human rights violations in real time.