Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

Putin is gonna control the entire Black Sea from the north And turn Ukraine and Moldova land locked with the ottomans In the south.

How is this foolish?

Price being paid is much much too high.

Ah ok

Yeah me and you think so.

But I can also see why someone might think it is rational. Which was Stephens argument.

A classic 19th century action

It what calculation was this a smart move? The prize is so not worth the cost

Calculating the value of the prize requires one to assign weights to variables that are subjective so who is to say on a long enough timeline if it was worth it or not

I’m not disagreeing that the action is wrong, but I also think the sharpest strategic minds try to place themselves in the shoes of their opponents as much as possible in order to accurately assess what would be the right course of action

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

It’s like that O. Henry story, Gift of the Magi. Here I have murdered my way into this supply of LNG but no demand for it because of all the murdering.

Putin is betting on a long enough timeline demand will be there from enough people who are Kissingerian at heart

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

Putin is gonna control the entire Black Sea from the north And turn Ukraine and Moldova land locked with the ottomans In the south.

How is this foolish?

Price being paid is much much too high.

Ah ok

Yeah me and you think so.

But I can also see why someone might think it is rational. Which was Stephens argument.

A classic 19th century action

It what calculation was this a smart move? The prize is so not worth the cost

Calculating the value of the prize requires one to assign weights to variables that are subjective so who is to say on a long enough timeline if it was worth it or not

I’m not disagreeing that the action is wrong, but I also think the sharpest strategic minds try to place themselves in the shoes of their opponents as much as possible in order to accurately assess what would be the right course of action

No one gets this calculation. They can't get what they want and are forced to turn to other countries. That makes russia weaker, not stronger.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

It’s like that O. Henry story, Gift of the Magi. Here I have murdered my way into this supply of LNG but no demand for it because of all the murdering.

Putin is betting on a long enough timeline demand will be there from enough people who are Kissingerian at heart

Putin will be dead before this is forgiven and forgotten.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

It’s like that O. Henry story, Gift of the Magi. Here I have murdered my way into this supply of LNG but no demand for it because of all the murdering.

Putin is betting on a long enough timeline demand will be there from enough people who are Kissingerian at heart

Putin will be dead before this is forgiven and forgotten.

Won't be forgiven and forgotten until the last Russian soldier involved is held accountable.

[Anonymous]

Russia is going nowhere. Blood is in the water and the weak ass response from the west is fading. I expect offense on many fronts unless the US and the west literally have no balls.

Japan should be the first move to test China.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia is going nowhere. Blood is in the water and the weak ass response from the west is fading. I expect offense on many fronts unless the US and the west literally have no balls.

Japan should be the first move to test China.

Kuril Islands that is. Japan moves on them is a real test for Russia-China relations.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia is going nowhere. Blood is in the water and the weak ass response from the west is fading. I expect offense on many fronts unless the US and the west literally have no balls.

Japan should be the first move to test China.

Kuril Islands that is. Japan moves on them is a real test for Russia-China relations.

Why, because Russia is so pathetic that it isn't capable of holding on to the couple of islands it stole from Japan and needs to go running to China for help?

[Anonymous]

Dispelling the myth of: “Russia is not sending its best military assets and is holding back!”

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia is going nowhere. Blood is in the water and the weak ass response from the west is fading. I expect offense on many fronts unless the US and the west literally have no balls.

Japan should be the first move to test China.

Japan bout to send some gundams to take over Sakhalins

All the anime mechas gonna be coming out in real life

Japan is so based

[Anonymous]

can someone explain to me this…if Ukrainian military around the Kiev region has been “freed up” why don’t they go after the retreating Russian forces or fortify their installments in Mariupol which has been besieged since early March?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:can someone explain to me this…if Ukrainian military around the Kiev region has been “freed up” why don’t they go after the retreating Russian forces or fortify their installments in Mariupol which has been besieged since early March?

They are. Ukrainian army and supply movements are closely held strategic secrets, so you don't hear about them.
Reporters on the front lines are not allowed to film them, even.

[Anonymous]

The Ukrainians just sunk the Black Sea Fleet's flagship!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514398732611211271?s=20&t=x5RoPB3in1C__ffxoYtV6A

This is the same ship to which Snake Island soldiers told, "Russian warship, go f*ck yourself."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA AIMS TO SEIZE ALL THE EAST AND SOUTH OF UKRAINE -RTRS

- no shit, Odessa imo was always the crown jewel target from the start.

Bret bedbug Stephens is mostly wrong but on this he was right. Putin is doing a classic 19th century move of capturing physical attributes.

He doesn’t really care for Keev and Lviv

Black Sea gas deposits. There's enough gas within Ukraine's territorial waters to supply Europe and completely cut off Russia. The big irony is that Putin is fighting a war to maintain their natural gas market share but the act of war itself is going to do even more damage to their market share.

Putin is such a ridiculous fool.

It’s like that O. Henry story, Gift of the Magi. Here I have murdered my way into this supply of LNG but no demand for it because of all the murdering.

Putin is betting on a long enough timeline demand will be there from enough people who are Kissingerian at heart

Putin will be dead before this is forgiven and forgotten.

This. And that is the heart of the miscalculation. Those sanctions are not coming off. Ever. Can they survive --- sure --- look at Iran. But Iran is always a month away from running out of money or starvation. They avoid it but there is no net. Russians not as smart as Iranians. They will screw it up and have no net. The miscalculation is that people cared.