Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

I hope this can remain a separate thread. Has anyone read the Newsweek article about what the US is learning from watching Russia’s strategy here? I don’t think the same approach would apply if there was direct US/Russian combat so I’m curious what we are truly learning from this that could actually help us.

[Anonymous]

Meh.....they sent in a bunch of teenagers and early 20s somethings (kids) conscripts with crappy supplies and weapons to serves as fresh meat to be turned into ground beef. They were used to soften up the Ukraine. Russia's advanced weaponry and elite divisions till haven't really been deployed yet. People shouldn't get confident at all that Russia has been 'struggling'. They are just getting warmed up, so I wouldn't extract a whole lot from the first week of combat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I hope this can remain a separate thread. Has anyone read the Newsweek article about what the US is learning from watching Russia’s strategy here? I don’t think the same approach would apply if there was direct US/Russian combat so I’m curious what we are truly learning from this that could actually help us.

Link?

[Anonymous]

The bigger lessons come from the recent 2021 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Drones now rule the battlefield.

[Anonymous]

Russia would get crushed by the US in a conventional war. Mainly due to our logistics and ability to hit them from Allied bases with air power and cruise missiles.
Russia would quickly resort to nuclear options and then It really depends on how quick we can find their subs and how many of their icbms actually launch and are accurate.
Our missile defense systems may knock out some but there are simply too many offensive weapons for the defense systems to hit them all.

I think we have learned that if their conventional equipment is not maintained what are they doing on the nuclear side. Those weapons systems are way more expensive to maintain.
Maybe that is where they are spending their money; or maybe only 50% of their nuclear inventory is actually useable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia would get crushed by the US in a conventional war. Mainly due to our logistics and ability to hit them from Allied bases with air power and cruise missiles.
Russia would quickly resort to nuclear options and then It really depends on how quick we can find their subs and how many of their icbms actually launch and are accurate.
Our missile defense systems may knock out some but there are simply too many offensive weapons for the defense systems to hit them all.

I think we have learned that if their conventional equipment is not maintained what are they doing on the nuclear side. Those weapons systems are way more expensive to maintain.
Maybe that is where they are spending their money; or maybe only 50% of their nuclear inventory is actually useable.

Russia is not the USSR. Not even close. In a real shooting war NATO will likely have air supremacy in a week. That is because there is a limit to how much air they could bring from other parts of Russia and because their planes are several generations behind ours. Once we have that, there is no more Russian logistics. Army seems ill-trained (as an aside this is why we are not having a draft army ever again). Equipment is just pasty 1990s levels. Logistics is the most important thing. The US plans logistics ahead of operations. Russia seemed to think this was not needed.

Will they win in Ukraine? Of course. Just a matter of time. Will they learn and get better? To a point. But the investment that is needed based on what we saw, they do not have. They are probably a trillion dollars away from having a US level force. They do not have a trillion extra and are not likely to ever get it.

Nukes are the real issue and the only real source of their power. Their nukes do not really work but you only need a few so it is a real threat we have to deal with.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia would get crushed by the US in a conventional war. Mainly due to our logistics and ability to hit them from Allied bases with air power and cruise missiles.
Russia would quickly resort to nuclear options and then It really depends on how quick we can find their subs and how many of their icbms actually launch and are accurate.
Our missile defense systems may knock out some but there are simply too many offensive weapons for the defense systems to hit them all.

I think we have learned that if their conventional equipment is not maintained what are they doing on the nuclear side. Those weapons systems are way more expensive to maintain.
Maybe that is where they are spending their money; or maybe only 50% of their nuclear inventory is actually useable.

Russia is not the USSR. Not even close. In a real shooting war NATO will likely have air supremacy in a week. That is because there is a limit to how much air they could bring from other parts of Russia and because their planes are several generations behind ours. Once we have that, there is no more Russian logistics. Army seems ill-trained (as an aside this is why we are not having a draft army ever again). Equipment is just pasty 1990s levels. Logistics is the most important thing. The US plans logistics ahead of operations. Russia seemed to think this was not needed.

Will they win in Ukraine? Of course. Just a matter of time. Will they learn and get better? To a point. But the investment that is needed based on what we saw, they do not have. They are probably a trillion dollars away from having a US level force. They do not have a trillion extra and are not likely to ever get it.

Nukes are the real issue and the only real source of their power. Their nukes do not really work but you only need a few so it is a real threat we have to deal with.

Iraq in 2003 did about as well as anyone would do with a full US military attack.

[Anonymous]

most of the military folks I have seen interviewed seem to indicate that there is no coherent strategy here

[Anonymous]

Russia is unable to field a 1st world army. If the Russians had invaded a NATO member it would have be very similar to what happen in the first Iraq war. Though the Iraq seemed more competent. The Nato would maybe lose one or two tanks. Russia would lose everything. That 40 mile column would be a smoking wreck in under 15 minutes.

Russia is using their elite units right now. Those units are getting their a$$ kicked. When Russia enters the cities I doubt many will be coming back. Their units will be a spent force within a month but the city will be destroyed. The Russians will be unable to supply their troops. The mud season is coming and there are only a few roads.

When the western tech starts arriving in theater(drones, laser designated Artillery, mines, stingers, anti tank systems, etc) the Russians will be in a world of hurt. I think they could lose 50-60k in this little adventure.

[Anonymous]

Too much corruption. It's kleptocracy and the elites skimmed too much of the fuel and food budget. Now their vehicles and armor have to be abandoned when they run out of gas and the lucky conscripts are given MRE's that expired in 2015. The unlucky ones get nothing. It's been a complete self-inflicted failure and humiliation.

[Anonymous]

Putin will use thermobaric weapons to slaughter civilians in Ukraine - especially in the cities.

The entire remaining population of Ukraine WILL fight.

Remember the grandma with sunflower seeds? She is coming back.

Only this time she will stab a kitchen knife into the neck of that Russian soldier.

[Anonymous]

The Russians have lost about 5,000 and the heavy fighting has not started. Ukraine has about 200k regular plus 500k reserves. I imagine they will push this number to 2-3 million by the end of the month.

The 150k the Russians have sent in are not all combat units. Once it’s kicks off the Russians will not have a safe place anywhere in the country- IED, suicide bombings, snipers, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Putin will use thermobaric weapons to slaughter civilians in Ukraine - especially in the cities.

The entire remaining population of Ukraine WILL fight.

Remember the grandma with sunflower seeds? She is coming back.

Only this time she will stab a kitchen knife into the neck of that Russian soldier.

Thermobaric bombs are not the end all and be all. Bombing has limited effect. You bomb an urban area it makes rumble which makes it hard to take. I think the Russians will use chemicals weapons on civilians. They are not very sophisticated and as such have very limited options. It’s mass artillery followed by armor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The Russians have lost about 5,000 and the heavy fighting has not started. Ukraine has about 200k regular plus 500k reserves. I imagine they will push this number to 2-3 million by the end of the month.

The 150k the Russians have sent in are not all combat units. Once it’s kicks off the Russians will not have a safe place anywhere in the country- IED, suicide bombings, snipers, etc.

Plus Zelensky has invited foreigners to come join a special division, and many veterans from all over are answering that call.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Meh.....they sent in a bunch of teenagers and early 20s somethings (kids) conscripts with crappy supplies and weapons to serves as fresh meat to be turned into ground beef. They were used to soften up the Ukraine. Russia's advanced weaponry and elite divisions till haven't really been deployed yet. People shouldn't get confident at all that Russia has been 'struggling'. They are just getting warmed up, so I wouldn't extract a whole lot from the first week of combat.

That's not how military strategy works. Competent generals don't send units in with the intent to fail. That leads to pointless losses and hurts morale. The most likely scenario is that the Russians just don't have the experience to competently pull off an invasion of this magnitude. Maybe they're learning from their mistakes.