Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The mud that is slowing down the Russians is also slowing down any Ukrainian counterattack.

I don't think the mud affects both sides equally. Russia advances with tanks. The Ukrainians rely more on weapons like javelins and NLAWS, that they carry with them. And Russian vehicles have tire problems-- poor quality and poorly maintained-- so are especially vulnerable to mud and thus must stay on roads.

Correct when Ukraine was defending. Maybe less correct if they now wish to advance and use heavier vehicles. We'll see. I still broadly agree.

The only thing that stopped Operation Barbarossa was the mud season.

Rasputitsa seasons of Russia are well known as a great defensive advantage in wartime. Common nicknames include General Mud and Marshal Mud. A spring thaw probably saved Novgorod from conquest and sacking during the 13th-century Mongol invasion. During the French invasion of Russia in 1812, Napoleon found the mud a great hindrance.

On the Eastern Front during the Second World War, the months-long muddy period slowed the German advance during the Battle of Moscow (October 1941 to January 1942) and may have helped save the Soviet capital from German occupation. The advent of motorised warfare had the disadvantage that while tanks could operate effectively in summer or in winter, they proved less useful in spring and autumn, when the functioning of an efficient railway system came into its own.

Prior to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, some analysts identified the logistical challenges of the mud season as a likely hindrance to any large-scale invasion in spring. When Russia did cross the border, many of its mobile units found themselves stranded in fields and limited to major roads, where resistance and logistical issues significantly slowed the advance towards Kyiv.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Will the russians now use chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine? It’s always been the russian’s fetish to turn Kyiv to atomic dust.

This is simply not true!

Many Russians have roots in Kyiv and in other parts of Ukraine! They do not want to see Ukraine destroyed! It's part of their heritage. And many cities in Ukraine are so beautiful, including Kyiv.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One prediction seems quite plausible here: that Ukraine is not about to negotiate a favorable deal with Russia at this point. I think they can kick them out and deliver an embarrassment to Putin. Yesterday the Russians announced they changed to Plan/Step B in a news conference. Russia just wants to secure the SE of Ukraine. I think that Putin is going to have to move to Plan C quickly since Plan B seems to destined for failure.

What is Plan C? I think Putin is going to announce that he has gotten rid of the "nazi's"; Punished the Ukraine government/military, removing any threat; and removed the threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Now the people of Donbas canary to take the matters in their own hands, just needing supplies from Russia. Russia will be concluding our "Special Military Operation" and bringing our forces home. Basically he can say he succeeded (ignoring reality) and regroup. I am guessing this will happen in the next 2 weeks.

If he does this I think the West (Germany and the US) will go along with the gag and slowly ease the sanctions and in 6 months everyone will have forgot about this horror - except for the poor people in Ukraine who have died and the remainder who have to rebuild.

I agree with you, but I don't think the sanctions are going away any time soon. And Germany is going to stop using Russian oil and gas, as will most of Europe. The economic consequences to Russia will be long-lasting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The mud that is slowing down the Russians is also slowing down any Ukrainian counterattack.

It wasn't just mud, it was lack of logistics. In many parts of Ukraine, Russia was only able to penetrate one tankful of diesel in before grinding to a halt for inability to resupply. Where they penetrated deeper, they left themselves unprotected and in many cases their supply lines were picked off by Ukraine. Massively incompetent, and it will be hilarious to see Putin try and tout this as some kind of victory. The only "punishing" they did was the cowardly shelling and bombing of civilian infrastructure.

Ugh. Must you?

The "hilarious" poster strikes again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine had better watch out for encirclement of its elite battalions on its eastern flank!


BBC News -

The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.

The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its "special military operation" - one covering the whole of Ukraine and one focusing on the Donbas.

The comments - carried by Russian state news agencies - hinted at a possible downgrading of Russia's war aims. Russian forces have met strong resistance in the north of Ukraine and around Kyiv.

Sergey Rudskoy, head of the main operational department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said 93% of Luhansk oblast and 54% of Donetsk oblast was under Russian control.

Russia had destroyed the vast majority of Ukraine's air force and navy, and this marked the successful end of the first phase of the conflict, he added.

However, the defence ministry did not rule out storming Ukrainian cities that had been blockaded and said Russia would react immediately to any move to close airspace over Ukraine - something President Zelensky has repeatedly urged.

The ministry also said Russia would continue its invasion until targets set by Putin had been achieved, Ria news agency reported, without specifying what the targets were.

This sounds like a pretty significant retreat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One prediction seems quite plausible here: that Ukraine is not about to negotiate a favorable deal with Russia at this point. I think they can kick them out and deliver an embarrassment to Putin. Yesterday the Russians announced they changed to Plan/Step B in a news conference. Russia just wants to secure the SE of Ukraine. I think that Putin is going to have to move to Plan C quickly since Plan B seems to destined for failure.

What is Plan C? I think Putin is going to announce that he has gotten rid of the "nazi's"; Punished the Ukraine government/military, removing any threat; and removed the threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Now the people of Donbas canary to take the matters in their own hands, just needing supplies from Russia. Russia will be concluding our "Special Military Operation" and bringing our forces home. Basically he can say he succeeded (ignoring reality) and regroup. I am guessing this will happen in the next 2 weeks.

If he does this I think the West (Germany and the US) will go along with the gag and slowly ease the sanctions and in 6 months everyone will have forgot about this horror - except for the poor people in Ukraine who have died and the remainder who have to rebuild.

I think you are wrong. I agree with you that Putin's goal to occupy Ukraine and install a puppet government seems not reachable now and that Putin's claim that the goal now is just Donbass suggests that he is in trouble and knows it However, he is a dictator and his own survival is linked to success in this war. even according to the US, Russia may have lost up to 10,000 men and this is staggeriing number in just one month of war, not that far from the number of solders lost in Afganistan but that war lasted years. even a number of generals died, and tons of military equipment was lost. plus the entire world saw that Russia's army basically sucks. so many solders will not go back home, theyr bodies left on ukrainian fields, and the tens of thousands of soldliers who go back know very well what happened. all this to say that Putin cannot just leave, give weapons to rebels in Donbass and everything is OK. he was already giving weapons and funding rebels in Donbass so there was no need for this disaster for Russia. I think the very minimum he will need to take and annex Donbass, like he did Crimea in 2014.

also, it is a pipe dream that US Germany and the West will go back as nothing happened. there might be some kind of agreement to allow Putin to partially save face but no way this is going to go back to business as usual. there are already about 3M refugees all over Europe, people are hosting them in their homes (my brother who lives in Belgium signed up and is expecting to host some refugees in his house). so this is a major problem for Europe and even if the war ends, many people simply cannot go back to towns that no longer exist, at least for a while. these few weeks have seen a huge shift toward Russia. Europe is acting fast to cut off it energy dependence from Russia. until a month ago, Germany was ready to activate the Nordstream gaspipe, its own former chancellor was the at the top of the German company working on it, now getting Nordstream to work is out of the question and the entire Europe is working to quicly find other sources of energy, temporarily and permandently. PLus there is a huge push for a European army and defense system so Europe does not have to depend on the US, and most EU countries suddenly increased their military spending to 2% of the GDP and over, something that no American president, incuding Trump, had manage to obtain. many pro-Putin politicians in Europe found themselves in deep trouble, desperately backpedaling prior support for Russia. they are mostly "sovranists" right wing populist that have been going to Russia for years for support, think Mr Salvini in Italy of the lega party, who tried to go to Poland to show his support for the refugees and was welcomed by a Polish mayor who, at a joint press conference, gave him as a gift a shirt with Putin's face to remind Salvini of his true allegiance, making the day of many Italians. even the right wing populist rulers of Poland and Hungary, who for years openly defied the EU and acted much more in syntony with Putin, embraced the EU and criticized Putin. easy to rule on religion conservatism, xenophobia, anti-gay and trans when you rule a social conservative country and enjoy the benefit and money coming from the richer countries in the EU. another story is when your constituents see Russian tanks, army and missiles right at their border and think that they may be next to go back to the s$it they left 30 years ago. then Putin seems much more threatening that trans people.

I hope you are right but I am concerned that Putin knows his own survival (in literal terms) depends on something that can look like a victory in Ukraine proportional to the hge losses that Russia suffered and that we may see a lot more devastation in the Ukraine

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The mud that is slowing down the Russians is also slowing down any Ukrainian counterattack.

It wasn't just mud, it was lack of logistics. In many parts of Ukraine, Russia was only able to penetrate one tankful of diesel in before grinding to a halt for inability to resupply. Where they penetrated deeper, they left themselves unprotected and in many cases their supply lines were picked off by Ukraine. Massively incompetent, and it will be hilarious to see Putin try and tout this as some kind of victory. The only "punishing" they did was the cowardly shelling and bombing of civilian infrastructure.

Ugh. Must you?

The "hilarious" poster strikes again.

Weird. Are you allergic to certain words? Or maybe you think only one person on the planet uses the word "hilarious?"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Russia has been lying since day 1.

[Anonymous]

[Richard67]

Summary of March 26

Zelensky's New Address

📍Ukraine is united in its desire to live freely, independently and for the sake of its dreams, not others' sick fantasies.

📍The response to Russian troops will be only one - hatred and contempt.

📍Occupants won't be helped by anything they do. Turning off our television and hooking up the kamlany of the capital's anchormen, postcards with propaganda, handing out rubles. Rubles, which in Russia, too, will soon be accepted by weight, not by face value."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Will the russians now use chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine? It’s always been the russian’s fetish to turn Kyiv to atomic dust.

This is simply not true!

Many Russians have roots in Kyiv and in other parts of Ukraine! They do not want to see Ukraine destroyed! It's part of their heritage. And many cities in Ukraine are so beautiful, including Kyiv.

That’s according to re-written false history. Stolen from Ukraine. There is no “common heritage” - it’s just historical and cultural appropriation of Ukrainian history and culture over the past 350 years.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

They need antiship missiles.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Only one month into the war, and Ukraine has killed 7 Russian generals:


Lt. Gen. Andrei Mordvichev
Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezantsev
Maj. Gen. Vitaliy Gerasimov
Maj. Gen. Andrei Kolesnikov
Maj. Gen. Oleg Mityaev
Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetskiy
Maj. Gen Magomed Tushaev

To be fair, however, one of the 7 generals died at the hands of his own men, who blame him personally for the senseless deaths of their comrades.

Putin: you cannot win Ukraine.

You CAN lose your military, your life, and your legacy.

Take whatever deal Zelensky offers you while you are still breathing (it might not be much longer, Vlad).