Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

The mud that is slowing down the Russians is also slowing down any Ukrainian counterattack.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The mud that is slowing down the Russians is also slowing down any Ukrainian counterattack.

It wasn't just mud, it was lack of logistics. In many parts of Ukraine, Russia was only able to penetrate one tankful of diesel in before grinding to a halt for inability to resupply. Where they penetrated deeper, they left themselves unprotected and in many cases their supply lines were picked off by Ukraine. Massively incompetent, and it will be hilarious to see Putin try and tout this as some kind of victory. The only "punishing" they did was the cowardly shelling and bombing of civilian infrastructure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One prediction seems quite plausible here: that Ukraine is not about to negotiate a favorable deal with Russia at this point. I think they can kick them out and deliver an embarrassment to Putin. Yesterday the Russians announced they changed to Plan/Step B in a news conference. Russia just wants to secure the SE of Ukraine. I think that Putin is going to have to move to Plan C quickly since Plan B seems to destined for failure.

What is Plan C? I think Putin is going to announce that he has gotten rid of the "nazi's"; Punished the Ukraine government/military, removing any threat; and removed the threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Now the people of Donbas canary to take the matters in their own hands, just needing supplies from Russia. Russia will be concluding our "Special Military Operation" and bringing our forces home. Basically he can say he succeeded (ignoring reality) and regroup. I am guessing this will happen in the next 2 weeks.

If he does this I think the West (Germany and the US) will go along with the gag and slowly ease the sanctions and in 6 months everyone will have forgot about this horror - except for the poor people in Ukraine who have died and the remainder who have to rebuild.

This would be serious mistake, and the next war will be even more ruthless, more destructive, and quite imminent. There cannot be just going back to business with current russia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One prediction seems quite plausible here: that Ukraine is not about to negotiate a favorable deal with Russia at this point. I think they can kick them out and deliver an embarrassment to Putin. Yesterday the Russians announced they changed to Plan/Step B in a news conference. Russia just wants to secure the SE of Ukraine. I think that Putin is going to have to move to Plan C quickly since Plan B seems to destined for failure.

What is Plan C? I think Putin is going to announce that he has gotten rid of the "nazi's"; Punished the Ukraine government/military, removing any threat; and removed the threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Now the people of Donbas canary to take the matters in their own hands, just needing supplies from Russia. Russia will be concluding our "Special Military Operation" and bringing our forces home. Basically he can say he succeeded (ignoring reality) and regroup. I am guessing this will happen in the next 2 weeks.

If he does this I think the West (Germany and the US) will go along with the gag and slowly ease the sanctions and in 6 months everyone will have forgot about this horror - except for the poor people in Ukraine who have died and the remainder who have to rebuild.

This would be serious mistake, and the next war will be even more ruthless, more destructive, and quite imminent. There cannot be just going back to business with current russia.

+1 No way to go back to tea time and photo ops with the Russians.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Taking with large grain of salt due to source.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One prediction seems quite plausible here: that Ukraine is not about to negotiate a favorable deal with Russia at this point. I think they can kick them out and deliver an embarrassment to Putin. Yesterday the Russians announced they changed to Plan/Step B in a news conference. Russia just wants to secure the SE of Ukraine. I think that Putin is going to have to move to Plan C quickly since Plan B seems to destined for failure.

What is Plan C? I think Putin is going to announce that he has gotten rid of the "nazi's"; Punished the Ukraine government/military, removing any threat; and removed the threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Now the people of Donbas canary to take the matters in their own hands, just needing supplies from Russia. Russia will be concluding our "Special Military Operation" and bringing our forces home. Basically he can say he succeeded (ignoring reality) and regroup. I am guessing this will happen in the next 2 weeks.

If he does this I think the West (Germany and the US) will go along with the gag and slowly ease the sanctions and in 6 months everyone will have forgot about this horror - except for the poor people in Ukraine who have died and the remainder who have to rebuild.

This would be serious mistake, and the next war will be even more ruthless, more destructive, and quite imminent. There cannot be just going back to business with current russia.

+1 No way to go back to tea time and photo ops with the Russians.

But it will happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One prediction seems quite plausible here: that Ukraine is not about to negotiate a favorable deal with Russia at this point. I think they can kick them out and deliver an embarrassment to Putin. Yesterday the Russians announced they changed to Plan/Step B in a news conference. Russia just wants to secure the SE of Ukraine. I think that Putin is going to have to move to Plan C quickly since Plan B seems to destined for failure.

What is Plan C? I think Putin is going to announce that he has gotten rid of the "nazi's"; Punished the Ukraine government/military, removing any threat; and removed the threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Now the people of Donbas canary to take the matters in their own hands, just needing supplies from Russia. Russia will be concluding our "Special Military Operation" and bringing our forces home. Basically he can say he succeeded (ignoring reality) and regroup. I am guessing this will happen in the next 2 weeks.

If he does this I think the West (Germany and the US) will go along with the gag and slowly ease the sanctions and in 6 months everyone will have forgot about this horror - except for the poor people in Ukraine who have died and the remainder who have to rebuild.

This would be serious mistake, and the next war will be even more ruthless, more destructive, and quite imminent. There cannot be just going back to business with current russia.

+1 No way to go back to tea time and photo ops with the Russians.

But it will happen.

And be ready for another war in 2-5 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One prediction seems quite plausible here: that Ukraine is not about to negotiate a favorable deal with Russia at this point. I think they can kick them out and deliver an embarrassment to Putin. Yesterday the Russians announced they changed to Plan/Step B in a news conference. Russia just wants to secure the SE of Ukraine. I think that Putin is going to have to move to Plan C quickly since Plan B seems to destined for failure.

What is Plan C? I think Putin is going to announce that he has gotten rid of the "nazi's"; Punished the Ukraine government/military, removing any threat; and removed the threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Now the people of Donbas canary to take the matters in their own hands, just needing supplies from Russia. Russia will be concluding our "Special Military Operation" and bringing our forces home. Basically he can say he succeeded (ignoring reality) and regroup. I am guessing this will happen in the next 2 weeks.

If he does this I think the West (Germany and the US) will go along with the gag and slowly ease the sanctions and in 6 months everyone will have forgot about this horror - except for the poor people in Ukraine who have died and the remainder who have to rebuild.

This would be serious mistake, and the next war will be even more ruthless, more destructive, and quite imminent. There cannot be just going back to business with current russia.

+1 No way to go back to tea time and photo ops with the Russians.

But it will happen.

Yes I think Putin will just wait till the republicans take control of Congress. The republicans will quickly abandon the Ukrainians, stop all weapon deliveries and go to Moscow on blended knee. I can see Speaker Greene wrapped in a confederate flag along with Majority leader Graham in Moscow and getting along well with Putin. They will apologize for US actions and agree that the US has “no leg to stand on” to criticize Russia’s actions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Will the russians now use chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine? It’s always been the russian’s fetish to turn Kyiv to atomic dust.

Not Kyiv, but the US. Watch that news program hosted by their top propagandist Kiselev, starts at 0:40:
https://youtu.be/EkMT_oLempE

Propogandists should be viewed with a grain of salt

Russia is much more trustworthy

[Anonymous]

I am just happy that the US has such a supply of javelins and stingers to spare. I am sure Lockheed and Raytheon are on 24 hour shifts to replenish supply; but Ukraine is asking for 500 of each per day. That is a lot. I do not recall the exact production capacity of javelins but 500 a day is more than production at the Florida plant for javelins Maybe Lockheed has another production plant for them now. Stingers are easier to produce.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The mud that is slowing down the Russians is also slowing down any Ukrainian counterattack.

I don't think the mud affects both sides equally. Russia advances with tanks. The Ukrainians rely more on weapons like javelins and NLAWS, that they carry with them. And Russian vehicles have tire problems-- poor quality and poorly maintained-- so are especially vulnerable to mud and thus must stay on roads.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The mud that is slowing down the Russians is also slowing down any Ukrainian counterattack.

I don't think the mud affects both sides equally. Russia advances with tanks. The Ukrainians rely more on weapons like javelins and NLAWS, that they carry with them. And Russian vehicles have tire problems-- poor quality and poorly maintained-- so are especially vulnerable to mud and thus must stay on roads.

Correct when Ukraine was defending. Maybe less correct if they now wish to advance and use heavier vehicles. We'll see. I still broadly agree.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One prediction seems quite plausible here: that Ukraine is not about to negotiate a favorable deal with Russia at this point. I think they can kick them out and deliver an embarrassment to Putin. Yesterday the Russians announced they changed to Plan/Step B in a news conference. Russia just wants to secure the SE of Ukraine. I think that Putin is going to have to move to Plan C quickly since Plan B seems to destined for failure.

What is Plan C? I think Putin is going to announce that he has gotten rid of the "nazi's"; Punished the Ukraine government/military, removing any threat; and removed the threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Now the people of Donbas canary to take the matters in their own hands, just needing supplies from Russia. Russia will be concluding our "Special Military Operation" and bringing our forces home. Basically he can say he succeeded (ignoring reality) and regroup. I am guessing this will happen in the next 2 weeks.

If he does this I think the West (Germany and the US) will go along with the gag and slowly ease the sanctions and in 6 months everyone will have forgot about this horror - except for the poor people in Ukraine who have died and the remainder who have to rebuild.

This would be serious mistake, and the next war will be even more ruthless, more destructive, and quite imminent. There cannot be just going back to business with current russia.

+1 No way to go back to tea time and photo ops with the Russians.

Agree.

Biden said it was time to replace Putin or get rid of him. Those are strong words.

Hilary knew about Putin. She and others tried to warn the world.