What is the End Game in Ukraine?

[Anonymous]

Europe can never use Russia oil or gas again. That is done unless there is a removal of leadership and the gas and oil flow start flowing again.

The removal of troublesome leaders is the historical pattern with state that sell oil to the west.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is an amazing debate on Russian state TV. Finally, some voices of sense dare to speak:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1569070513909022720

Hope they don't go home to polonium in their underwear.

Note the gasligting calling the Ukrainians Nazi's when their president is....Jewish.

Just 12 months ago the NYT had articles attacking the Ukranian government for including far-right, pro-Nazi groups...how fast some forget!

If you asked all Americans about Ukraine I am pretty sure this would be the results:
90% unable to find it on a map
90% know no one from Ukraine
95% know nothing about its history

That being said 95% would say they support giving them weapons to fight Russia. Nothing really to do with Ukraine.

Why? Americans just hate Russia and Russians in general. Not that we know any typically, it’s just our thing. If aliens invaded earth we would probably side with the aliens if they attacked Russia first.

If you asked all Americans about Vermont I am pretty sure this would be the results:

90% unable to find it on a map
90% know no one from Vermont
95% know nothing about its history

That being said 95% would say they support giving Vermont weapons to fight New Hampshire if New Hampshire invaded them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end? Russia leaves. Pays billions to Ukraine. Putin has to leave power. They may have to give up nukes but. They can still salvage that for a short window after regime change. Otherwise us sanctions don’t come off. Russia is done as even a second tier power. They will be more like Turkey or Greece.

I think the end game will depend on whether Ukraine gets the Donbas region back. If Europe has a reliable ally that also can supply it with oil and gas, then Russia gets relegated to a vassal state of China (if it's not already). It loses all of its leverage with Europe. While reparations would be great, I don't see that ever happening outside of western countries using the assets seized in connection with sanctions to rebuild Ukraine. I could see a large de-militarized zone separating it from Russia like North and South Korea and an uneasy truce settling in with occasional flare ups. Of course, all bets are off if Trump wins in 2024.

I see many options, but they have nothing to do with Ukraine. I think Ukraine's fate is based upon Putin's endstate in Russia.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE A: CUT AND RUN
Putin knows what happens to leaders that are perceived as weak. Now that Russian hardcore's are turning against him, his island of friends is getting smaller. Putin didn't even take his military brief today. He knows what the population statistics are showing for the next 10+ years, no matter how many 1m ruble Motherhood prizes are awarded. Plan B to strike back at both his ultranationalist supporters turning on him, as well as the West, by cutting a personal deal with China (if China lets him). He has sub tech, tzar bomba, and hypersonic technology as bargaining chips. The Chinese Communist party knows Russia's population demographics and 9 per Km2 is a lot of legroom to upgrade in.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE B: ENTROPIC DEMISE
The war grinds on for years. Putin is trapped in a no-win situation, so plays musical chairs with new recruits and mobilization in a dance of springs and winters. The opposition is too weak to resist. Misery, hate, apathy. The Russian people become a society of brainwashed zombies incapable of resisting. North Korean economic model becomes the vision of the future.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE C: GENIUS MASTER SPY
Years ago Putin realized that Stalinist Russia is doomed. Population was emigrating, his inner circle was funneling funds overseas, and even his own daughters preferred living in Europe. They all feared people like Dugin, Simonyan, Solovyov.. Putin knew that there was no way the hardliners would ever permit closer ties to the West, their sworn enemy. Putin also knew that the U.S. was weak itself with Trump and the MAGA far right. Putin knew the only way to prepare his country for normalized relations with the West, would be to lead the hardliners into a trap and grind down anyone who would oppose normalizing relations with the West.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE D: DING DONG! THE WITCH IS DEAD!
Putin suddenly dies. But there was no clear lineage of power succession since Medvedev was never a rockstar with the military and spy services. Outnumbered ultrarights struggle for power against reform and each other. Assassinations, bombings, sabotage. Russia devolves into a third-world country overnight. Old rivalries resurface and the 190+ ethnic groups splinter Russia into smaller chunks.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE E: NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON
Putin has lost it. He sees a Stalin-like Great War, or a Hiter-like Struggle, of which he now bears the burden of carrying out. Nuclear war is becoming more and more attractive to him. Destroying the Earth does not matter because he believes his underground bunkers are that good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Europe can never use Russia oil or gas again. That is done unless there is a removal of leadership and the gas and oil flow start flowing again.

The removal of troublesome leaders is the historical pattern with state that sell oil to the west.

I don't think the removal of leadership will be enough to reassure Europeans into relying on Russian gas and oil again. Russians don't seem as interested as other Eastern and Central European countries to adopt liberal political and economic reforms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end? Russia leaves. Pays billions to Ukraine. Putin has to leave power. They may have to give up nukes but. They can still salvage that for a short window after regime change. Otherwise us sanctions don’t come off. Russia is done as even a second tier power. They will be more like Turkey or Greece.

I think the end game will depend on whether Ukraine gets the Donbas region back. If Europe has a reliable ally that also can supply it with oil and gas, then Russia gets relegated to a vassal state of China (if it's not already). It loses all of its leverage with Europe. While reparations would be great, I don't see that ever happening outside of western countries using the assets seized in connection with sanctions to rebuild Ukraine. I could see a large de-militarized zone separating it from Russia like North and South Korea and an uneasy truce settling in with occasional flare ups. Of course, all bets are off if Trump wins in 2024.

I see many options, but they have nothing to do with Ukraine. I think Ukraine's fate is based upon Putin's endstate in Russia.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE A: CUT AND RUN
Putin knows what happens to leaders that are perceived as weak. Now that Russian hardcore's are turning against him, his island of friends is getting smaller. Putin didn't even take his military brief today. He knows what the population statistics are showing for the next 10+ years, no matter how many 1m ruble Motherhood prizes are awarded. Plan B to strike back at both his ultranationalist supporters turning on him, as well as the West, by cutting a personal deal with China (if China lets him). He has sub tech, tzar bomba, and hypersonic technology as bargaining chips. The Chinese Communist party knows Russia's population demographics and 9 per Km2 is a lot of legroom to upgrade in.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE B: ENTROPIC DEMISE
The war grinds on for years. Putin is trapped in a no-win situation, so plays musical chairs with new recruits and mobilization in a dance of springs and winters. The opposition is too weak to resist. Misery, hate, apathy. The Russian people become a society of brainwashed zombies incapable of resisting. North Korean economic model becomes the vision of the future.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE C: GENIUS MASTER SPY
Years ago Putin realized that Stalinist Russia is doomed. Population was emigrating, his inner circle was funneling funds overseas, and even his own daughters preferred living in Europe. They all feared people like Dugin, Simonyan, Solovyov.. Putin knew that there was no way the hardliners would ever permit closer ties to the West, their sworn enemy. Putin also knew that the U.S. was weak itself with Trump and the MAGA far right. Putin knew the only way to prepare his country for normalized relations with the West, would be to lead the hardliners into a trap and grind down anyone who would oppose normalizing relations with the West.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE D: DING DONG! THE WITCH IS DEAD!
Putin suddenly dies. But there was no clear lineage of power succession since Medvedev was never a rockstar with the military and spy services. Outnumbered ultrarights struggle for power against reform and each other. Assassinations, bombings, sabotage. Russia devolves into a third-world country overnight. Old rivalries resurface and the 190+ ethnic groups splinter Russia into smaller chunks.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE E: NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON
Putin has lost it. He sees a Stalin-like Great War, or a Hiter-like Struggle, of which he now bears the burden of carrying out. Nuclear war is becoming more and more attractive to him. Destroying the Earth does not matter because he believes his underground bunkers are that good.

Tell me you won The Dumbass Award without telling me you won The Dumbass Award.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Europe can never use Russia oil or gas again. That is done unless there is a removal of leadership and the gas and oil flow start flowing again.

The removal of troublesome leaders is the historical pattern with state that sell oil to the west.

I don't think the removal of leadership will be enough to reassure Europeans into relying on Russian gas and oil again. Russians don't seem as interested as other Eastern and Central European countries to adopt liberal political and economic reforms.

LOL I'm sure the US administers the "are you interested in adopting liberal political and economic reforms?" questionnaire to its Gulf friends before it stocks up on oil and sells them its most sophisticated weapons. How blind can you be?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end? Russia leaves. Pays billions to Ukraine. Putin has to leave power. They may have to give up nukes but. They can still salvage that for a short window after regime change. Otherwise us sanctions don’t come off. Russia is done as even a second tier power. They will be more like Turkey or Greece.

I think the end game will depend on whether Ukraine gets the Donbas region back. If Europe has a reliable ally that also can supply it with oil and gas, then Russia gets relegated to a vassal state of China (if it's not already). It loses all of its leverage with Europe. While reparations would be great, I don't see that ever happening outside of western countries using the assets seized in connection with sanctions to rebuild Ukraine. I could see a large de-militarized zone separating it from Russia like North and South Korea and an uneasy truce settling in with occasional flare ups. Of course, all bets are off if Trump wins in 2024.

Imagine what Ukraine could have had if it didn't have a genius idea of shuttering Russian-language schools and TV channels in Donbas!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end? Russia leaves. Pays billions to Ukraine. Putin has to leave power. They may have to give up nukes but. They can still salvage that for a short window after regime change. Otherwise us sanctions don’t come off. Russia is done as even a second tier power. They will be more like Turkey or Greece.

I think the end game will depend on whether Ukraine gets the Donbas region back. If Europe has a reliable ally that also can supply it with oil and gas, then Russia gets relegated to a vassal state of China (if it's not already). It loses all of its leverage with Europe. While reparations would be great, I don't see that ever happening outside of western countries using the assets seized in connection with sanctions to rebuild Ukraine. I could see a large de-militarized zone separating it from Russia like North and South Korea and an uneasy truce settling in with occasional flare ups. Of course, all bets are off if Trump wins in 2024.

I see many options, but they have nothing to do with Ukraine. I think Ukraine's fate is based upon Putin's endstate in Russia.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE A: CUT AND RUN
Putin knows what happens to leaders that are perceived as weak. Now that Russian hardcore's are turning against him, his island of friends is getting smaller. Putin didn't even take his military brief today. He knows what the population statistics are showing for the next 10+ years, no matter how many 1m ruble Motherhood prizes are awarded. Plan B to strike back at both his ultranationalist supporters turning on him, as well as the West, by cutting a personal deal with China (if China lets him). He has sub tech, tzar bomba, and hypersonic technology as bargaining chips. The Chinese Communist party knows Russia's population demographics and 9 per Km2 is a lot of legroom to upgrade in.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE B: ENTROPIC DEMISE
The war grinds on for years. Putin is trapped in a no-win situation, so plays musical chairs with new recruits and mobilization in a dance of springs and winters. The opposition is too weak to resist. Misery, hate, apathy. The Russian people become a society of brainwashed zombies incapable of resisting. North Korean economic model becomes the vision of the future.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE C: GENIUS MASTER SPY
Years ago Putin realized that Stalinist Russia is doomed. Population was emigrating, his inner circle was funneling funds overseas, and even his own daughters preferred living in Europe. They all feared people like Dugin, Simonyan, Solovyov.. Putin knew that there was no way the hardliners would ever permit closer ties to the West, their sworn enemy. Putin also knew that the U.S. was weak itself with Trump and the MAGA far right. Putin knew the only way to prepare his country for normalized relations with the West, would be to lead the hardliners into a trap and grind down anyone who would oppose normalizing relations with the West.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE D: DING DONG! THE WITCH IS DEAD!
Putin suddenly dies. But there was no clear lineage of power succession since Medvedev was never a rockstar with the military and spy services. Outnumbered ultrarights struggle for power against reform and each other. Assassinations, bombings, sabotage. Russia devolves into a third-world country overnight. Old rivalries resurface and the 190+ ethnic groups splinter Russia into smaller chunks.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE E: NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON
Putin has lost it. He sees a Stalin-like Great War, or a Hiter-like Struggle, of which he now bears the burden of carrying out. Nuclear war is becoming more and more attractive to him. Destroying the Earth does not matter because he believes his underground bunkers are that good.

Tell me you won The Dumbass Award without telling me you won The Dumbass Award.

We'll see. Click on the long version of this video.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/watch-this-video-showing-russian-tv-pundits-questioning-the-war-in-ukraine-11662974192?siteid=yhoof2

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end? Russia leaves. Pays billions to Ukraine. Putin has to leave power. They may have to give up nukes but. They can still salvage that for a short window after regime change. Otherwise us sanctions don’t come off. Russia is done as even a second tier power. They will be more like Turkey or Greece.

I think the end game will depend on whether Ukraine gets the Donbas region back. If Europe has a reliable ally that also can supply it with oil and gas, then Russia gets relegated to a vassal state of China (if it's not already). It loses all of its leverage with Europe. While reparations would be great, I don't see that ever happening outside of western countries using the assets seized in connection with sanctions to rebuild Ukraine. I could see a large de-militarized zone separating it from Russia like North and South Korea and an uneasy truce settling in with occasional flare ups. Of course, all bets are off if Trump wins in 2024.

I see many options, but they have nothing to do with Ukraine. I think Ukraine's fate is based upon Putin's endstate in Russia.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE A: CUT AND RUN
Putin knows what happens to leaders that are perceived as weak. Now that Russian hardcore's are turning against him, his island of friends is getting smaller. Putin didn't even take his military brief today. He knows what the population statistics are showing for the next 10+ years, no matter how many 1m ruble Motherhood prizes are awarded. Plan B to strike back at both his ultranationalist supporters turning on him, as well as the West, by cutting a personal deal with China (if China lets him). He has sub tech, tzar bomba, and hypersonic technology as bargaining chips. The Chinese Communist party knows Russia's population demographics and 9 per Km2 is a lot of legroom to upgrade in.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE B: ENTROPIC DEMISE
The war grinds on for years. Putin is trapped in a no-win situation, so plays musical chairs with new recruits and mobilization in a dance of springs and winters. The opposition is too weak to resist. Misery, hate, apathy. The Russian people become a society of brainwashed zombies incapable of resisting. North Korean economic model becomes the vision of the future.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE C: GENIUS MASTER SPY
Years ago Putin realized that Stalinist Russia is doomed. Population was emigrating, his inner circle was funneling funds overseas, and even his own daughters preferred living in Europe. They all feared people like Dugin, Simonyan, Solovyov.. Putin knew that there was no way the hardliners would ever permit closer ties to the West, their sworn enemy. Putin also knew that the U.S. was weak itself with Trump and the MAGA far right. Putin knew the only way to prepare his country for normalized relations with the West, would be to lead the hardliners into a trap and grind down anyone who would oppose normalizing relations with the West.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE D: DING DONG! THE WITCH IS DEAD!
Putin suddenly dies. But there was no clear lineage of power succession since Medvedev was never a rockstar with the military and spy services. Outnumbered ultrarights struggle for power against reform and each other. Assassinations, bombings, sabotage. Russia devolves into a third-world country overnight. Old rivalries resurface and the 190+ ethnic groups splinter Russia into smaller chunks.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE E: NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON
Putin has lost it. He sees a Stalin-like Great War, or a Hiter-like Struggle, of which he now bears the burden of carrying out. Nuclear war is becoming more and more attractive to him. Destroying the Earth does not matter because he believes his underground bunkers are that good.

Tell me you won The Dumbass Award without telling me you won The Dumbass Award.

We'll see. Click on the long version of this video.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/watch-this-video-showing-russian-tv-pundits-questioning-the-war-in-ukraine-11662974192?siteid=yhoof2

I can assure you that the only people on this planet afraid of Simonyan or Dugin are those who do not yet know that over-the-counter medication for vaginal dryness is widely available.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end? Russia leaves. Pays billions to Ukraine. Putin has to leave power. They may have to give up nukes but. They can still salvage that for a short window after regime change. Otherwise us sanctions don’t come off. Russia is done as even a second tier power. They will be more like Turkey or Greece.

I think the end game will depend on whether Ukraine gets the Donbas region back. If Europe has a reliable ally that also can supply it with oil and gas, then Russia gets relegated to a vassal state of China (if it's not already). It loses all of its leverage with Europe. While reparations would be great, I don't see that ever happening outside of western countries using the assets seized in connection with sanctions to rebuild Ukraine. I could see a large de-militarized zone separating it from Russia like North and South Korea and an uneasy truce settling in with occasional flare ups. Of course, all bets are off if Trump wins in 2024.

I see many options, but they have nothing to do with Ukraine. I think Ukraine's fate is based upon Putin's endstate in Russia.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE A: CUT AND RUN
Putin knows what happens to leaders that are perceived as weak. Now that Russian hardcore's are turning against him, his island of friends is getting smaller. Putin didn't even take his military brief today. He knows what the population statistics are showing for the next 10+ years, no matter how many 1m ruble Motherhood prizes are awarded. Plan B to strike back at both his ultranationalist supporters turning on him, as well as the West, by cutting a personal deal with China (if China lets him). He has sub tech, tzar bomba, and hypersonic technology as bargaining chips. The Chinese Communist party knows Russia's population demographics and 9 per Km2 is a lot of legroom to upgrade in.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE B: ENTROPIC DEMISE
The war grinds on for years. Putin is trapped in a no-win situation, so plays musical chairs with new recruits and mobilization in a dance of springs and winters. The opposition is too weak to resist. Misery, hate, apathy. The Russian people become a society of brainwashed zombies incapable of resisting. North Korean economic model becomes the vision of the future.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE C: GENIUS MASTER SPY
Years ago Putin realized that Stalinist Russia is doomed. Population was emigrating, his inner circle was funneling funds overseas, and even his own daughters preferred living in Europe. They all feared people like Dugin, Simonyan, Solovyov.. Putin knew that there was no way the hardliners would ever permit closer ties to the West, their sworn enemy. Putin also knew that the U.S. was weak itself with Trump and the MAGA far right. Putin knew the only way to prepare his country for normalized relations with the West, would be to lead the hardliners into a trap and grind down anyone who would oppose normalizing relations with the West.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE D: DING DONG! THE WITCH IS DEAD!
Putin suddenly dies. But there was no clear lineage of power succession since Medvedev was never a rockstar with the military and spy services. Outnumbered ultrarights struggle for power against reform and each other. Assassinations, bombings, sabotage. Russia devolves into a third-world country overnight. Old rivalries resurface and the 190+ ethnic groups splinter Russia into smaller chunks.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE E: NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON
Putin has lost it. He sees a Stalin-like Great War, or a Hiter-like Struggle, of which he now bears the burden of carrying out. Nuclear war is becoming more and more attractive to him. Destroying the Earth does not matter because he believes his underground bunkers are that good.

Tell me you won The Dumbass Award without telling me you won The Dumbass Award.

We'll see. Click on the long version of this video.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/watch-this-video-showing-russian-tv-pundits-questioning-the-war-in-ukraine-11662974192?siteid=yhoof2

I can assure you that the only people on this planet afraid of Simonyan or Dugin are those who do not yet know that over-the-counter medication for vaginal dryness is widely available.

Funny. But I don't think you get it at all. Never underestimate the wrath of a Russian propagandist who publicly supported a losing cause.

"Chechens were being used to stop frontline troops from deserting their positions"
https://www.ft.com/content/84ff2893-9b20-40c8-b503-f8fd10c99eca

Chechnya's President Ramzan Kadyrov appears to suggest he is leaving combat operations in Ukraine to take an "indefinite and long" break.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1664603/putin-russia-ukraine-war-chechnya-republic-ramzan-kadyrov-vn
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2022/09/03/my-time-has-come-controversial-chechen-leader-ramzan-kadyrov-appears-to-say-hell-resign/?sh=3a91c5e829a7

Anton Barbashin, the editorial director at analytical platform Riddle Russia, called the timing "peculiar.” Kadyrov's announcement would "be against the general vibe of Russia now. [The] entire system’s message is to ‘stay put’ because of [the war in Ukraine," Barbashin said in a tweet. "If what Kadyrov has just said is true and he is retiring voluntarily, it would be unprecedent[ed]. Something literally no one was expecting," he said.
https://www.rferl.org/a/chechnya-kadyrov-indefinite-break-speculation/32017103.html

Why would Putin's top ally in Chechnya bolt? Kadyrov loves Putin. But is Kadyrov popular? Is he congratulated by his countryman for sending troops to destroy Ukrainian Nazi's?In the USSR, Ukrainians were entrusted with Nuclear Weapons - were the Chechens? Imagine you're a Russian hardliner or a USSR soldier or had served as a KGB political officer. You hear that Chechens are rounding up Russians running from the front lines. Russians look down on Chechens. They are Muslims. How would you feel about that?

The scenario I intentionally omitted was a Gorbachev-style popular uprising, since that's the one scenario Putin and Medvedev are most focused on. I believe that they've either let flee or locked up enough troublemakers to prevent that from happening. I think this time it will be the hardliners turning on their own.

China’s No 3 leader Li Zhanshu to visit Russia
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3191274/chinas-no-3-leader-li-zhanshu-visit-russia

How ‘Putin’s Rasputin’ Alexander Dugin changed his mind about China
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3190578/how-putins-rasputin-alexander-dugin-changed-his-mind-about

I give it less than 6 months.

[Anonymous]

PP, the only thing I need to know to discount your ramblings is you calling Dugin anyone's Rasputin. That's one of the legends invented by the dumb Kremlinologists. Dugin is a third-rate propagandist. He has never met Putin. I doubt he has ever been inside the Kremlin. If he has influence over Putin, it must be telepathic since the two do not communicate.

And I assure you that he has never seen Alina naked! So enough with the Rasputin bullcrap.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Europe can never use Russia oil or gas again. That is done unless there is a removal of leadership and the gas and oil flow start flowing again.

The removal of troublesome leaders is the historical pattern with state that sell oil to the west.

Looks like the solution is never to sell oil to the west since they think the frequent buyer status entitles them to input on your political affairs.

[Anonymous]

Russia isn't getting Donbas back, and it will also be ceding Crimea before this is done. Once Russia is kicked out, Ukraine will join NATO thus removing any future threat of this happening again.

Putin for the (west) win!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end? Russia leaves. Pays billions to Ukraine. Putin has to leave power. They may have to give up nukes but. They can still salvage that for a short window after regime change. Otherwise us sanctions don’t come off. Russia is done as even a second tier power. They will be more like Turkey or Greece.

I think the end game will depend on whether Ukraine gets the Donbas region back. If Europe has a reliable ally that also can supply it with oil and gas, then Russia gets relegated to a vassal state of China (if it's not already). It loses all of its leverage with Europe. While reparations would be great, I don't see that ever happening outside of western countries using the assets seized in connection with sanctions to rebuild Ukraine. I could see a large de-militarized zone separating it from Russia like North and South Korea and an uneasy truce settling in with occasional flare ups. Of course, all bets are off if Trump wins in 2024.

I see many options, but they have nothing to do with Ukraine. I think Ukraine's fate is based upon Putin's endstate in Russia.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE A: CUT AND RUN
Putin knows what happens to leaders that are perceived as weak. Now that Russian hardcore's are turning against him, his island of friends is getting smaller. Putin didn't even take his military brief today. He knows what the population statistics are showing for the next 10+ years, no matter how many 1m ruble Motherhood prizes are awarded. Plan B to strike back at both his ultranationalist supporters turning on him, as well as the West, by cutting a personal deal with China (if China lets him). He has sub tech, tzar bomba, and hypersonic technology as bargaining chips. The Chinese Communist party knows Russia's population demographics and 9 per Km2 is a lot of legroom to upgrade in.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE B: ENTROPIC DEMISE
The war grinds on for years. Putin is trapped in a no-win situation, so plays musical chairs with new recruits and mobilization in a dance of springs and winters. The opposition is too weak to resist. Misery, hate, apathy. The Russian people become a society of brainwashed zombies incapable of resisting. North Korean economic model becomes the vision of the future.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE C: GENIUS MASTER SPY
Years ago Putin realized that Stalinist Russia is doomed. Population was emigrating, his inner circle was funneling funds overseas, and even his own daughters preferred living in Europe. They all feared people like Dugin, Simonyan, Solovyov.. Putin knew that there was no way the hardliners would ever permit closer ties to the West, their sworn enemy. Putin also knew that the U.S. was weak itself with Trump and the MAGA far right. Putin knew the only way to prepare his country for normalized relations with the West, would be to lead the hardliners into a trap and grind down anyone who would oppose normalizing relations with the West.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE D: DING DONG! THE WITCH IS DEAD!
Putin suddenly dies. But there was no clear lineage of power succession since Medvedev was never a rockstar with the military and spy services. Outnumbered ultrarights struggle for power against reform and each other. Assassinations, bombings, sabotage. Russia devolves into a third-world country overnight. Old rivalries resurface and the 190+ ethnic groups splinter Russia into smaller chunks.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE E: NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON
Putin has lost it. He sees a Stalin-like Great War, or a Hiter-like Struggle, of which he now bears the burden of carrying out. Nuclear war is becoming more and more attractive to him. Destroying the Earth does not matter because he believes his underground bunkers are that good.

Thank you, PP. A lot of what you say makes sense. Everything except Endstate A and C. Those don't sound like Putin.
Which is disturbing because it makes E that much more likely.

[Anonymous]

Time to rearm the Ukraine with nuclear weapons. It is the only thing that makes sense.