What is the End Game in Ukraine?

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09/12/2022 22:35

Subject: What is the End Game in Ukraine?

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Anonymous

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end? Russia leaves. Pays billions to Ukraine. Putin has to leave power. They may have to give up nukes but. They can still salvage that for a short window after regime change. Otherwise us sanctions don’t come off. Russia is done as even a second tier power. They will be more like Turkey or Greece.

I think the end game will depend on whether Ukraine gets the Donbas region back. If Europe has a reliable ally that also can supply it with oil and gas, then Russia gets relegated to a vassal state of China (if it's not already). It loses all of its leverage with Europe. While reparations would be great, I don't see that ever happening outside of western countries using the assets seized in connection with sanctions to rebuild Ukraine. I could see a large de-militarized zone separating it from Russia like North and South Korea and an uneasy truce settling in with occasional flare ups. Of course, all bets are off if Trump wins in 2024.

I see many options, but they have nothing to do with Ukraine. I think Ukraine's fate is based upon Putin's endstate in Russia.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE A: CUT AND RUN
Putin knows what happens to leaders that are perceived as weak. Now that Russian hardcore's are turning against him, his island of friends is getting smaller. Putin didn't even take his military brief today. He knows what the population statistics are showing for the next 10+ years, no matter how many 1m ruble Motherhood prizes are awarded. Plan B to strike back at both his ultranationalist supporters turning on him, as well as the West, by cutting a personal deal with China (if China lets him). He has sub tech, tzar bomba, and hypersonic technology as bargaining chips. The Chinese Communist party knows Russia's population demographics and 9 per Km2 is a lot of legroom to upgrade in.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE B: ENTROPIC DEMISE
The war grinds on for years. Putin is trapped in a no-win situation, so plays musical chairs with new recruits and mobilization in a dance of springs and winters. The opposition is too weak to resist. Misery, hate, apathy. The Russian people become a society of brainwashed zombies incapable of resisting. North Korean economic model becomes the vision of the future.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE C: GENIUS MASTER SPY
Years ago Putin realized that Stalinist Russia is doomed. Population was emigrating, his inner circle was funneling funds overseas, and even his own daughters preferred living in Europe. They all feared people like Dugin, Simonyan, Solovyov.. Putin knew that there was no way the hardliners would ever permit closer ties to the West, their sworn enemy. Putin also knew that the U.S. was weak itself with Trump and the MAGA far right. Putin knew the only way to prepare his country for normalized relations with the West, would be to lead the hardliners into a trap and grind down anyone who would oppose normalizing relations with the West.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE D: DING DONG! THE WITCH IS DEAD!
Putin suddenly dies. But there was no clear lineage of power succession since Medvedev was never a rockstar with the military and spy services. Outnumbered ultrarights struggle for power against reform and each other. Assassinations, bombings, sabotage. Russia devolves into a third-world country overnight. Old rivalries resurface and the 190+ ethnic groups splinter Russia into smaller chunks.

RUSSIAN ENDSTATE E: NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON
Putin has lost it. He sees a Stalin-like Great War, or a Hiter-like Struggle, of which he now bears the burden of carrying out. Nuclear war is becoming more and more attractive to him. Destroying the Earth does not matter because he believes his underground bunkers are that good.

Thank you, PP. A lot of what you say makes sense. Everything except Endstate A and C. Those don't sound like Putin.
Which is disturbing because it makes E that much more likely.

A - maybe not now, but when the hardliners are at his door?
C - probably not, but if Putin ever starts having Grandpa pangs? His kids lifestyle proves he's not against them living in the West, so not that hardcore an ideologue. Probably misses his schnitzel dinners from his time in Germany. Never know how someone can change their life philosophy near the end..
E - everyone knew he dodged a health bullet last year, but how long can he retain his marbles? Remember the Sochi olympics rant? Who knew figure skating was so.. passionate.. a sport?

And I never said Dugin was Rasputin or that he ever met Putin, but it is interesting you tried to twist it that way. But, Dugin is the voice of many very dedicated (nutcase) ideologues, the same way that Tucker or Hannity influence the extremists in the U.S.. If he is against Chinese influence, well, no Beijing Roasted Duck for you! But if he says he likes Sichuan, then he's probably signaling that his faction would be supportive of foreign support? That's a problem for Putin - not because Dugin is so charismatic that Keqiang wants to start tossing down shots together - but that Dugin is signaling Putin's supporters that they better choose their sides well and others may be signaling as well.

Watch the Kremlin all you want, but don't forget it's only 9% of the country. The former Yugoslavia failed to take that into account and you see what happened there.