Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions
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Anonymous
LN here. Interesting. Last year, they only took three kids from the 6th grade waitlist, but all four years before that, they've always taken double digits. So, I would ordinarily say a really good shot, 4 in 5. BUT - the numbers show a clear downward trend. 91 waitlist offers five years ago, then 66, then 35, then 18, and last year 3. Since that's a DCPS IB school, my strong suspicion is they are just getting more and more IB retention and thus don't have slots for out of bound kids. Now, that being said - they also matched only 40 this year, while last year they matched 50. So maybe you squeak in? Given the trend, I'd still put your odds at small. Maybe 20 or 30%? Less than a coin flip. One nice thing - the last five years, they've never made an offer after the Tableau numbers come out in August. So you'll know either way by early August. You're not going to have to ponder a switch in September. |
Anonymous
LN here. Stuart Hobson #6 - Very similar story to the sixth grader with the same number. You would have gotten in every year but last year, but those numbers trend down consistently every year. But also - they took fewer kids on match day. So, I'd give the same 20-30% chance. Hardy #16 - 60% shot. They've gone that deep into the waitlist three out of the past five years. DCI (Spanish Language Program) #19 - No offer Oyster-Adams Bilingual School (Adams) #9 - No offer Deal Middle School #19 - No offer John Francis Education Campus #26 - 40% chance. They've made that many offers two of the past five years. Eliot-Hines Middle School #29 - No offer. Jefferson Middle School #14 - Small chance. 20%. They've gone that far into their waitlist once in five years. |
Anonymous
LN here. Burroughs #10 - No offer Whittier #8 - No offer Inspired Teaching #6 - You have a chance here. They've let this many kids in three of the past five years. Unfortunately, not the last two years. It's a coin flip - 50/50 shot. |
Anonymous
LN here. This is not my area of expertise, but my understanding is, no. This isn't like the Tableau dashboard where they are bulk uploading new data all at once. The MSDC website reports live numbers, and they change in real time as offers are made or preferences are updated. Since offers are made during the school day, I wouldn't expect any movement at midnight! Numbers have already been shifting - about half of my kid's numbers have changed slightly since match day, in both directions (though more decreases than increases). And I have a friend who already got a waitlist offer (her kid was #1 on a waitlist). Editorializing, but I assume now that the deadline has passed, schools will be reviewing their enrollment numbers and making some offers, as needed, but given that Friday is the deadline, I wouldn't expect that to be really happening until next week. And it will probably vary a lot by school. Some schools will jump right on it and make a bunch of offers, some will be busy and take some time, and some DCPS may want to wait to see how IB enrollment shapes up. Yes, there will be movement in May, but it won't all happen immediately on 5/1. I'm with you though - cannot wait to start seeing numbers move!! |
Anonymous
This is right. The school sits and takes stock of their numbers and decides what to do. Sometimes makes big decisions like how many classrooms to offer. This can take time, if they need central office permission. Also, remember that the person whose job it is to do this stuff probably also has a bunch of other stuff to do as part of their job. I would expect movement to really pick up in the second and third weeks of May, at least that's what I remember from past years. |
Anonymous
I cannot believe you have a lower number at Deal than John Francis and Elliot Hine. |
Anonymous
It's because people don't bother applying to Deal. |
Anonymous
If you look at total offers, including matches, it looks like this: SY22-23: 66 SY23-24: 55 SY24-25: 48 SY25-26: 53 So far this year they've matched 40. So personally I think it's quite likely that they make offers to another 8-12. |
Anonymous
This may underestimate the (somewhat necessary) increased community buy in driving the trend line. I think LN is right. We’re a cluster family, and the SH admin is being conservative early for a reason. Hill families are increasingly shut out of Latin, Basis, etc., and we’ve been surprised with how many neighbors, older siblings of classmates and LT families we know have already happily enrolled at SH for next year. It’s noticeable chatter even over last year. The May data drop will be very telling. |
Anonymous
But at dcps schools, I would assume that data showing they made 30 offers doesn't mean a no-preference person who was ranked 30 on the wl gets an offer, because siblings will enroll in other grades and people will move in bounds and that will push the original #30 down on the list. |
Anonymous
LN here. The other thing I would add is that I don't think matches and waitlist offers are equivalent. I have never seen any data on this (though I would like to!) but my strong instinct is that a WAY higher percentage of initial matches enroll than waitlist offers. Obviously, this is true for post-August offers - it's easy to see in the data for the Deal feeders, for example. They'll match one kid a year, make a couple offers some years in the summer, and then randomly have one year with 18 waitlist offers by October. Those schools don't all of a sudden have 18 seats one year - they're having to call a bunch of people after school starts to fill one seat. But even for spring/summer offers - my strong guess is that many people match with a school, get psyched about it, maybe tell their kid, and then a waitlist offer comes in and they say "no thanks." Not as clear cut, and I don't have clear evidence to back it up, but logic tells me that's the case, and that it's very correlated to when the offers are made. So while the number of matches is a factor, I don't think adding them together with waitlist offers to compare is fair. So I'm sticking to my prediction of a 20-30% chance. |
Anonymous
LN here. Yes, this is an excellent point. I don't have an example at my fingertips, but there have been a few cases on this thread where a person's waitlist number is close to the number of offers made in a year, and in those cases, I lean toward people not getting a seat for this reason - siblings will jump ahead. However, in this case, it's not enough to sway my predictions. In the two years Hearst made offers past 40, they made 52 and 59 offers. I highly doubt 12+ siblings jumped the line those years, so I feel pretty confident the person who held #40 on match day got an offer both years. Same with Janney - 55 and 81 seats, plenty of room for siblings and to still get to #45. And remember there is also some movement in the other direction, as people do remove themselves from waitlists (though I suspect not a ton). And if you, for example, accept a waitlist offer from your first choice school, you'll be automatically removed from all the other waitlists assuming you don't reorder. |
Anonymous
Yes, I've been getting Principal Fraser's enrollment updates and have been surprised to see Ludlow-Taylor leading the unofficial feeder competition for 6th grade enrollments. A friend over there says they have 3 5th grade classes this year (vs 2 last year) and the majority of those kids are coming to SH. |
Anonymous
| How far into the waitlist will School Without Walls go, do you think? |
Anonymous
Based on intel coming from my son's 8th grade friends I think Walls may end up going deeper than prior years. Surprising number of kids turned it down. |