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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]6th grade
Stuart Hobson #6[/quote]

LN here.

Interesting. Last year, they only took three kids from the 6th grade waitlist, but all four years before that, they've always taken double digits. So, I would ordinarily say a really good shot, 4 in 5. BUT - the numbers show a clear downward trend. 91 waitlist offers five years ago, then 66, then 35, then 18, and last year 3. Since that's a DCPS IB school, my strong suspicion is they are just getting more and more IB retention and thus don't have slots for out of bound kids.

Now, that being said - they also matched only 40 this year, while last year they matched 50. So maybe you squeak in?

Given the trend, I'd still put your odds at small. Maybe 20 or 30%? Less than a coin flip.

One nice thing - the last five years, they've never made an offer after the Tableau numbers come out in August. So you'll know either way by early August. You're not going to have to ponder a switch in September. [/quote]

If you look at total offers, including matches, it looks like this: 
SY22-23: 66
SY23-24: 55
SY24-25: 48
SY25-26: 53

So far this year they've matched 40. So personally I think it's quite likely that they make offers to another 8-12.[/quote]

This may underestimate the (somewhat necessary) increased community buy in driving the trend line. I think LN is right. We’re a cluster family, and the SH admin is being conservative early for a reason. Hill families are increasingly shut out of Latin, Basis, etc., and we’ve been surprised with how many neighbors, older siblings of classmates and LT families we know have already happily enrolled at SH for next year. It’s noticeable chatter even over last year. The May data drop will be very telling. [/quote]

Yes, I've been getting Principal Fraser's enrollment updates and have been surprised to see Ludlow-Taylor leading the unofficial feeder competition for 6th grade enrollments. A friend over there says they have 3 5th grade classes this year (vs 2 last year) and the majority of those kids are coming to SH.[/quote]

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