Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would more families leave DCPS and not go to Hardy specifically now? Hardy is better than it ever was.

Because it now feeds to MacArthur.

This. They are moving to the burbs for a much better guaranteed middle school and high school option.

The good middle schools in the burbs just blows Hardy out of the water, not to mention not having to deal with the dysfunction and sh”tshow that is DCPS. Also throw in so many more course offerrings, EC, and better facilities.

Eh, my friend's kid is going to Longfellow in McLean and from their stories, it feels like teachers in Hardy are much better on average, as well as approach to resolving issues taking place at school.

I feel like this myth about suburban schools blowing anything out of the water is kept alive by families who moved to suburbs because they couldn't afford living in the city anymore, to make themselves feel better that they moved.

Or just to rationalize their choices that were based on assumptions that did not prove to be true. I know lots of people who moved to the burbs and found the grass was just about the same shade of green if not less so

[Anonymous]

I feel like this myth about suburban schools blowing anything out of the water is kept alive by families who moved to suburbs because they couldn't afford living in the city anymore, to make themselves feel better that they moved.
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This is truth because unless everyone can suddenly afford a 650k to million dollar home in MoCo, Fairfax Co or Arlington, lets be serious here lol. Some of it is a true gamble and this is someone who lives in the burbs. It's a different set of problems.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist will School Without Walls go, do you think?

Based on intel coming from my son's 8th grade friends I think Walls may end up going deeper than prior years. Surprising number of kids turned it down.

The question though is whether they over admitted to accommodate the people turning offers down.

I'm PP you're replying to. You're not getting it. Certainly schools use yield management assuming some percent turn down offers. What I said was that anecdotal evidence tells me the rejection rate may be higher than modeled for.

How big is your sample size? Anecdotally, all of my 8th grader's friends who got into Walls are attending. I think it's hard to generalize from a small group of kids.

At our school at least 10 kids admitted and 8 are turning it down. That's material.

Assuming you are coming from Deal? Or Hardy?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I feel like this myth about suburban schools blowing anything out of the water is kept alive by families who moved to suburbs because they couldn't afford living in the city anymore, to make themselves feel better that they moved.
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This is truth because unless everyone can suddenly afford a 650k to million dollar home in MoCo, Fairfax Co or Arlington, lets be serious here lol. Some of it is a true gamble and this is someone who lives in the burbs. It's a different set of problems.

I agree that the grass is greener narrative is perpetuated by those who decamped. I gotta ask - where the heck are you going to find anything in DC for 650-1m in DC?

[Anonymous]

If someone gets offered a waitlist spot, how long do they have to decide? When does it expire?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If someone gets offered a waitlist spot, how long do they have to decide? When does it expire?

The school gets to set how long. It's often a week at first but later in August or after the school year starts, 2-3 days.

[Anonymous]

Has anyone on the Walls waitlist been called yet?