Reply to Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=kareng]Hi LN, twins apply for PK4. Pls help to predict.

Hearst #40 #55
Ross #39 #54
Janney #45 #63
Murch #43 #53
Marie Reed #25 #29

[/quote]

LN here. Sorry for the delay, got busy.

I would assume almost always, once the first kid gets in, they'll pull in the second one. Unfortunately, your kid's lottery numbers must have been pretty similar - Hearst, for example, has a waitlist of 100 kids, so both your kids are right around the middle. You'd be better off if one of them had a better number, even if the second had a really crappy one.

Hearst #40 #55 - You've got a chance here. Of the past five years, twice they've gone that deep into the waitlist. So, 40% chance. Would likely be in August or September if you did get a slot. 
Ross #39 #54 - No offer.
Janney #45 #63 - You have a chance here as well. Of the past five years, twice they have gone that deep into the waitlist. So, 40% chance. 
Murch #43 #53 - No offer. 
Marie Reed #25 #29 - No offer. [/quote]

But at dcps schools, I would assume that data showing they made 30 offers doesn't mean a no-preference person who was ranked 30 on the wl gets an offer, because siblings will enroll in other grades and people will move in bounds and that will push the original #30 down on the list.[/quote]

LN here.

Yes, this is an excellent point. I don't have an example at my fingertips, but there have been a few cases on this thread where a person's waitlist number is close to the number of offers made in a year, and in those cases, I lean toward people not getting a seat for this reason - siblings will jump ahead.

However, in this case, it's not enough to sway my predictions. In the two years Hearst made offers past 40, they made 52 and 59 offers. I highly doubt 12+ siblings jumped the line those years, so I feel pretty confident the person who held #40 on match day got an offer both years. Same with Janney - 55 and 81 seats, plenty of room for siblings and to still get to #45. And remember there is also some movement in the other direction, as people do remove themselves from waitlists (though I suspect not a ton). And if you, for example, accept a waitlist offer from your first choice school, you'll be automatically removed from all the other waitlists assuming you don't reorder. [/quote]

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