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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]6th grade
Stuart Hobson #6[/quote]

LN here.

Interesting. Last year, they only took three kids from the 6th grade waitlist, but all four years before that, they've always taken double digits. So, I would ordinarily say a really good shot, 4 in 5. BUT - the numbers show a clear downward trend. 91 waitlist offers five years ago, then 66, then 35, then 18, and last year 3. Since that's a DCPS IB school, my strong suspicion is they are just getting more and more IB retention and thus don't have slots for out of bound kids.

Now, that being said - they also matched only 40 this year, while last year they matched 50. So maybe you squeak in?

Given the trend, I'd still put your odds at small. Maybe 20 or 30%? Less than a coin flip.

One nice thing - the last five years, they've never made an offer after the Tableau numbers come out in August. So you'll know either way by early August. You're not going to have to ponder a switch in September. [/quote]

If you look at total offers, including matches, it looks like this: 
SY22-23: 66
SY23-24: 55
SY24-25: 48
SY25-26: 53

So far this year they've matched 40. So personally I think it's quite likely that they make offers to another 8-12.[/quote]

This may underestimate the (somewhat necessary) increased community buy in driving the trend line. I think LN is right. We’re a cluster family, and the SH admin is being conservative early for a reason. Hill families are increasingly shut out of Latin, Basis, etc., and we’ve been surprised with how many neighbors, older siblings of classmates and LT families we know have already happily enrolled at SH for next year. It’s noticeable chatter even over last year. The May data drop will be very telling. [/quote]

LN here.

The other thing I would add is that I don't think matches and waitlist offers are equivalent. I have never seen any data on this (though I would like to!) but my strong instinct is that a WAY higher percentage of initial matches enroll than waitlist offers. Obviously, this is true for post-August offers - it's easy to see in the data for the Deal feeders, for example. They'll match one kid a year, make a couple offers some years in the summer, and then randomly have one year with 18 waitlist offers by October. Those schools don't all of a sudden have 18 seats one year - they're having to call a bunch of people after school starts to fill one seat.

But even for spring/summer offers - my strong guess is that many people match with a school, get psyched about it, maybe tell their kid, and then a waitlist offer comes in and they say "no thanks." Not as clear cut, and I don't have clear evidence to back it up, but logic tells me that's the case, and that it's very correlated to when the offers are made.

So while the number of matches is a factor, I don't think adding them together with waitlist offers to compare is fair. So I'm sticking to my prediction of a 20-30% chance. [/quote]

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