Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist will School Without Walls go, do you think?

Based on intel coming from my son's 8th grade friends I think Walls may end up going deeper than prior years. Surprising number of kids turned it down.

The question though is whether they over admitted to accommodate the people turning offers down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist will School Without Walls go, do you think?

Based on intel coming from my son's 8th grade friends I think Walls may end up going deeper than prior years. Surprising number of kids turned it down.

The question though is whether they over admitted to accommodate the people turning offers down.

Over admitting or not doesn’t change the fact that more kids are turning down Walls and it is not as desirable as it once was.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist will School Without Walls go, do you think?

Based on intel coming from my son's 8th grade friends I think Walls may end up going deeper than prior years. Surprising number of kids turned it down.

The question though is whether they over admitted to accommodate the people turning offers down.

I'm PP you're replying to. You're not getting it. Certainly schools use yield management assuming some percent turn down offers. What I said was that anecdotal evidence tells me the rejection rate may be higher than modeled for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:60, Hardy
Thank you for all you do!

LN here. This is a tough one. Usually, the answer would be no. However, last year (and only last year!) they let it a ton of people - triple digits in fact (101). If anyone has any thoughts on why that happened, please share, but certainly if that trend continues, you'd be set.

Given that that was a one time thing, (but it was last year) I'd say maybe a 30% shot?

Thank you!🙏

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:60, Hardy
Thank you for all you do!

LN here. This is a tough one. Usually, the answer would be no. However, last year (and only last year!) they let it a ton of people - triple digits in fact (101). If anyone has any thoughts on why that happened, please share, but certainly if that trend continues, you'd be set.

Given that that was a one time thing, (but it was last year) I'd say maybe a 30% shot?

Has to be a data anomaly. They didn't add a class. That's just too many to make sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:60, Hardy
Thank you for all you do!

LN here. This is a tough one. Usually, the answer would be no. However, last year (and only last year!) they let it a ton of people - triple digits in fact (101). If anyone has any thoughts on why that happened, please share, but certainly if that trend continues, you'd be set.

Given that that was a one time thing, (but it was last year) I'd say maybe a 30% shot?

Has to be a data anomaly. They didn't add a class. That's just too many to make sense.

I think it is a combination of more IB families now leaving DCPS and not going to Hardy and more OOB families not taking lottery spots because of the change in high school feeder now to MA.

[Anonymous]

Why would more families leave DCPS and not go to Hardy specifically now? Hardy is better than it ever was.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why would more families leave DCPS and not go to Hardy specifically now? Hardy is better than it ever was.

Because it now feeds to MacArthur.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist will School Without Walls go, do you think?

Based on intel coming from my son's 8th grade friends I think Walls may end up going deeper than prior years. Surprising number of kids turned it down.

The question though is whether they over admitted to accommodate the people turning offers down.

Over admitting or not doesn’t change the fact that more kids are turning down Walls and it is not as desirable as it once was.

Walls just doesn’t offer the classes needed for admission to all colleges. I don’t understand how they let the school decline this much.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would more families leave DCPS and not go to Hardy specifically now? Hardy is better than it ever was.

Because it now feeds to MacArthur.

This. They are moving to the burbs for a much better guaranteed middle school and high school option.

The good middle schools in the burbs just blows Hardy out of the water, not to mention not having to deal with the dysfunction and sh”tshow that is DCPS. Also throw in so many more course offerrings, EC, and better facilities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why would more families leave DCPS and not go to Hardy specifically now? Hardy is better than it ever was.

Because it now feeds to MacArthur.

This. They are moving to the burbs for a much better guaranteed middle school and high school option.

The good middle schools in the burbs just blows Hardy out of the water, not to mention not having to deal with the dysfunction and sh”tshow that is DCPS. Also throw in so many more course offerrings, EC, and better facilities.

Also if not moving, those with options are looking at privates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist will School Without Walls go, do you think?

Based on intel coming from my son's 8th grade friends I think Walls may end up going deeper than prior years. Surprising number of kids turned it down.

The question though is whether they over admitted to accommodate the people turning offers down.

I'm PP you're replying to. You're not getting it. Certainly schools use yield management assuming some percent turn down offers. What I said was that anecdotal evidence tells me the rejection rate may be higher than modeled for.

How big is your sample size? Anecdotally, all of my 8th grader's friends who got into Walls are attending. I think it's hard to generalize from a small group of kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist will School Without Walls go, do you think?

Based on intel coming from my son's 8th grade friends I think Walls may end up going deeper than prior years. Surprising number of kids turned it down.

The question though is whether they over admitted to accommodate the people turning offers down.

Over admitting or not doesn’t change the fact that more kids are turning down Walls and it is not as desirable as it once was.

Walls just doesn’t offer the classes needed for admission to all colleges. I don’t understand how they let the school decline this much.

What classes would that be?