Dow below 40000 by end of the year

[Anonymous]

I am 25 and just started a roth ira a month ago and maxed both 2025 and 2026. In a way I am glad I am starting when the market is down. I have another 100k in a 1 year 4% CD.

[Anonymous]

Very few people invest in the Dow, so it's a stupid index to track. Total stock market, S&P 500, or maybe total world would be a more appropriate index to follow if you want to go on an emotional roller coaster.

Why even follow this nonsense? You are more prone to underperform the market when you get emotional about investing. We are only - 5% YTD! This is nothing! If you can't take a -50% hit, you likely need to change your asset allocation in a big way. You should also be able to withstand 10+ years of negative returns, especially if you don't have international or emerging markets stocks in your portfolio.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Very few people invest in the Dow, so it's a stupid index to track. Total stock market, S&P 500, or maybe total world would be a more appropriate index to follow if you want to go on an emotional roller coaster.

Why even follow this nonsense? You are more prone to underperform the market when you get emotional about investing. We are only - 5% YTD! This is nothing! If you can't take a -50% hit, you likely need to change your asset allocation in a big way. You should also be able to withstand 10+ years of negative returns, especially if you don't have international or emerging markets stocks in your portfolio.

VOO is not doing any better. Neither is VTI, VT or FZROX. Equities are down across the board.

From time to time we need reminders that equity investing is not a risk free endeavor.

[Anonymous]

We are slowing marching towards 44900....before you know it by end of July we may be at 39900 at this rate. Of course people will.say nothing to see here lol.

And the scariest thing the market isn't even reacting it to how long it will take to repair all the gas infrastructure challenges in the market, the other underlying weaknesses in the economy, a long overdue inflation etc...

Thanks to index funds buyers (me included) robotically buying regardless and screaming at everyone who dares act otherwise, We are knowingly or unknowingly artificially keeping a market afloat thats in a real need of correction.

Unfortunately this means that when the true correction happens it won't be pretty. And if God forbid index fund buyers suddenly decide that blindly buying all.the time may not be the best course of action and pause their buying boy we will see a big drop.

[Anonymous]

I had a liquidity event earlier this year, and now have a few million sitting in SGOV. Don't want to catch this falling knife. Hard to see what the timeline looks like on this mini-correction.

The way it's looking now, market is anticipating a ground invasion of Iran. If there are concrete steps taken wherein it's clear that won't happen, I think we see green for the next 6 months.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are slowing marching towards 44900....before you know it by end of July we may be at 39900 at this rate. Of course people will.say nothing to see here lol.

And the scariest thing the market isn't even reacting it to how long it will take to repair all the gas infrastructure challenges in the market, the other underlying weaknesses in the economy, a long overdue inflation etc...

Thanks to index funds buyers (me included) robotically buying regardless and screaming at everyone who dares act otherwise, We are knowingly or unknowingly artificially keeping a market afloat thats in a real need of correction.

Unfortunately this means that when the true correction happens it won't be pretty. And if God forbid index fund buyers suddenly decide that blindly buying all.the time may not be the best course of action and pause their buying boy we will see a big drop.

+1 401ks and automatic purchases in "set it and forget it" accounts are great for getting more people involved in the market and hopefully spreading the wealth about a bit, but I agree that it contributes to a disconnect between fundamentals and valuation.

[Anonymous]

I will be concerned when the market drops by 20% YTD. We are not there yet and we won't get there. This is just another noise.

Having said when summer traveling start and we are still on a downward trend then we should all worry because we all know how big role a role oil plays in the global economy. We must have everything sorted before peak oil demand else it's bad news.

In particular I am most worried about fertilizers. But I really think in the next couple of weeks things will calm down.

[Anonymous]

I'm also worried about the downstream repercussions from the war. And also miffed about the stock market. But we're fine so I should just wait it out. But I'd love to be able to read and assess and digest everything that's going on and make intelligent decisions ahead of trends.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the war last longer than 6 months yes

We were at war for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and the market did great.

Well, we also didn't have reality show idiots in charge then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I had a liquidity event earlier this year, and now have a few million sitting in SGOV. Don't want to catch this falling knife. Hard to see what the timeline looks like on this mini-correction.

The way it's looking now, market is anticipating a ground invasion of Iran. If there are concrete steps taken wherein it's clear that won't happen, I think we see green for the next 6 months.

The market is NOT anticipating American troops on the ground in Iran. Should that happen, we can expect oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf to be completely destroyed. It would take many years to bring it back online. It would likely also be the beginning of the end for the petrodollar. Plus, it is militarily impossible to secure the Hormuz Strait from threats to shipping. There is no way tankers are getting insurance without safe passage guarantees from Iran. Which means no tankers for Europe or Asia for a very long time. An American boot touching Iranian soil spells catastrophe. And that is not priced in at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm also worried about the downstream repercussions from the war. And also miffed about the stock market. But we're fine so I should just wait it out. But I'd love to be able to read and assess and digest everything that's going on and make intelligent decisions ahead of trends.

Not doing anything is the best course of action for most of us.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I had a liquidity event earlier this year, and now have a few million sitting in SGOV. Don't want to catch this falling knife. Hard to see what the timeline looks like on this mini-correction.

The way it's looking now, market is anticipating a ground invasion of Iran. If there are concrete steps taken wherein it's clear that won't happen, I think we see green for the next 6 months.

The market is NOT anticipating American troops on the ground in Iran. Should that happen, we can expect oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf to be completely destroyed. It would take many years to bring it back online. It would likely also be the beginning of the end for the petrodollar. Plus, it is militarily impossible to secure the Hormuz Strait from threats to shipping. There is no way tankers are getting insurance without safe passage guarantees from Iran. Which means no tankers for Europe or Asia for a very long time. An American boot touching Iranian soil spells catastrophe. And that is not priced in at all.

There won't be troops on the ground. It's a vast country and ran by fanatics. I don't think we are going to send in troops. And if we do, for what purpose? That county is ruined anyways, they will collapse on their own weight.

Now when Libya collapsed I don't think the surrounding countries were affected much. I don't know much about geopolitics but I have eyes that can look a map and I can read the names of the countries surrounding that country. If that country collapses, can we say confidently that surrounding countries won't be affected? I have no idea. But let's assume that if it collapses whatever is left is super friendly to the west and will facilitate the commercialization of gas and oil, will that nascent country be able to do so at minimal cost? Or will.tnos cause a permanent increase in the price of oil and gas.

I think some of us are just so clueless but acting like they know everything. I do also realize that it's very American for us to always be optimistic. Honestly I have no idea about what's to come.

Whether comes next the market will react either positively or negatively because the repercussions will be felt sooner or later by everyday people.

[Anonymous]

I’ve out money into my Roth IRA (maxed out last year and some for this year), but haven’t invested it. Should I wait before buying FXAIX or buy now?
Instinct tells me to wait, what says DCUM?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I had a liquidity event earlier this year, and now have a few million sitting in SGOV. Don't want to catch this falling knife. Hard to see what the timeline looks like on this mini-correction.

The way it's looking now, market is anticipating a ground invasion of Iran. If there are concrete steps taken wherein it's clear that won't happen, I think we see green for the next 6 months.

The market is NOT anticipating American troops on the ground in Iran. Should that happen, we can expect oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf to be completely destroyed. It would take many years to bring it back online. It would likely also be the beginning of the end for the petrodollar. Plus, it is militarily impossible to secure the Hormuz Strait from threats to shipping. There is no way tankers are getting insurance without safe passage guarantees from Iran. Which means no tankers for Europe or Asia for a very long time. An American boot touching Iranian soil spells catastrophe. And that is not priced in at all.

There won't be troops on the ground. It's a vast country and ran by fanatics. I don't think we are going to send in troops. And if we do, for what purpose? That county is ruined anyways, they will collapse on their own weight.

Now when Libya collapsed I don't think the surrounding countries were affected much. I don't know much about geopolitics but I have eyes that can look a map and I can read the names of the countries surrounding that country. If that country collapses, can we say confidently that surrounding countries won't be affected? I have no idea. But let's assume that if it collapses whatever is left is super friendly to the west and will facilitate the commercialization of gas and oil, will that nascent country be able to do so at minimal cost? Or will.tnos cause a permanent increase in the price of oil and gas.

I think some of us are just so clueless but acting like they know everything. I do also realize that it's very American for us to always be optimistic. Honestly I have no idea about what's to come.

Whether comes next the market will react either positively or negatively because the repercussions will be felt sooner or later by everyday people.

You're assuming if Iran collapses it will remain a unified country rather than devolving into numerous armed factions vying for power and creating total chaos.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are slowing marching towards 44900....before you know it by end of July we may be at 39900 at this rate. Of course people will.say nothing to see here lol.

And the scariest thing the market isn't even reacting it to how long it will take to repair all the gas infrastructure challenges in the market, the other underlying weaknesses in the economy, a long overdue inflation etc...

Thanks to index funds buyers (me included) robotically buying regardless and screaming at everyone who dares act otherwise, We are knowingly or unknowingly artificially keeping a market afloat thats in a real need of correction.

Unfortunately this means that when the true correction happens it won't be pretty. And if God forbid index fund buyers suddenly decide that blindly buying all.the time may not be the best course of action and pause their buying boy we will see a big drop.

+1 401ks and automatic purchases in "set it and forget it" accounts are great for getting more people involved in the market and hopefully spreading the wealth about a bit, but I agree that it contributes to a disconnect between fundamentals and valuation.

Well the same principle will operate in reverse over the next 20 years as retiring baby boomers draw down their retirement savings.