Dow below 40000 by end of the year

[Anonymous]

The doom & gloom has shifted a bit too far in one direction now - of course it could and probably will go down more, but the sudden change just because trump starts a war? Where have you all been the last 40 years? This is par for the course in US politics.


Absolutely not saying BUY BUY BUY, but chill out.

[Anonymous]

I posted about 6-7 weeks in response to someone else’s post that I was liquidating most of my non-conservative investments. Will have a tax hit, but the loss is minimal.
I was burned many years ago when the market fell and I lost a huge amount because I was being a pig, rather than more conservative by taking out my profits before the market fell. Painful lesson.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The doom & gloom has shifted a bit too far in one direction now - of course it could and probably will go down more, but the sudden change just because trump starts a war? Where have you all been the last 40 years? This is par for the course in US politics.


Absolutely not saying BUY BUY BUY, but chill out.

Trend is down until proven otherwise. Lower highs, lower lows. I wouldn't buy anything until confirmation of a trend change. Yes, you miss the absolute bottom, but saves you from buying a falling knife.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The doom & gloom has shifted a bit too far in one direction now - of course it could and probably will go down more, but the sudden change just because trump starts a war? Where have you all been the last 40 years? This is par for the course in US politics.


Absolutely not saying BUY BUY BUY, but chill out.

Not just a war, but this particular war that is causing an oil shock. There have been plenty of ME wars, but none has closed the straits.

[Anonymous]

There are lot of arrogant and confident people on this forum. Nobody has a crystal ball. But I urge everyone to do a little reading about that particular part of the world where the conflict is happening. Don't just go back 100 years, go further back. You will then understand that this time our hubris may cost us a lot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The doom & gloom has shifted a bit too far in one direction now - of course it could and probably will go down more, but the sudden change just because trump starts a war? Where have you all been the last 40 years? This is par for the course in US politics.


Absolutely not saying BUY BUY BUY, but chill out.

Not just a war, but this particular war that is causing an oil shock. There have been plenty of ME wars, but none has closed the straits.

And at a time of nosebleed valuations:

"S&P 500 P/E Ratio (CAPE Model): As of December 31, 2025, the S&P 500's 10-year P/E Ratio (CAPE) was 39.3, which is 90.5% above its modern-era average of 20.6, placing the market in the "Strongly Overvalued" range based on this long-term valuation model"

[Anonymous]

My prediction is 39965 by July 31st

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My prediction is 39965 by July 31st

Go out in a polymarket bet

[Anonymous]

Can't wait for the stagflation to kick in for real. Yippey

[Anonymous]

Some people think there is no way the Dow will go below 40,000. Maybe they know something I don't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Some people think there is no way the Dow will go below 40,000. Maybe they know something I don't.

Algorithms are going to people it up. Look at this thread full of buyers trying to catch the dip. We have a generation of stock buyers with zero commission fees always ready to jump in and out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some people think there is no way the Dow will go below 40,000. Maybe they know something I don't.

Algorithms are going to people it up. Look at this thread full of buyers trying to catch the dip. We have a generation of stock buyers with zero commission fees always ready to jump in and out.

And indexes and pensions funds buying stocks in lockstep.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are lot of arrogant and confident people on this forum. Nobody has a crystal ball. But I urge everyone to do a little reading about that particular part of the world where the conflict is happening. Don't just go back 100 years, go further back. You will then understand that this time our hubris may cost us a lot.

Sorry...how far back? What are you trying to reference here?

[Anonymous]

I hope so. Boomers need to learn to vote and they only respond to whether their 401k is up or down

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some people think there is no way the Dow will go below 40,000. Maybe they know something I don't.

Algorithms are going to people it up. Look at this thread full of buyers trying to catch the dip. We have a generation of stock buyers with zero commission fees always ready to jump in and out.

Algorithms can also all panic sell. Hasn't happened in a bit but Google flash crash.