Dow below 40000 by end of the year

[Anonymous]

What drives me crazy are people who think that if the war ends today suddenly dow will go up to 60k and everything will be big, beautiful , huge, and massive again. We will be roaring again. We will be tired of winning in the stock market so much that we will be hoping for a drop in the market.

Folks, ladies and gentlemen it's too f**g late. The disruptions to oil and gas distribution will take awhile to address. And as a result inflation will go up, your gas prices aren't going back to your January prices.

Use your analytical skills for once for God sake.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What drives me crazy are people who think that if the war ends today suddenly dow will go up to 60k and everything will be big, beautiful , huge, and massive again. We will be roaring again. We will be tired of winning in the stock market so much that we will be hoping for a drop in the market.

Folks, ladies and gentlemen it's too f**g late. The disruptions to oil and gas distribution will take awhile to address. And as a result inflation will go up, your gas prices aren't going back to your January prices.

Use your analytical skills for once for God sake.

Dunning-Kruger

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What drives me crazy are people who think that if the war ends today suddenly dow will go up to 60k and everything will be big, beautiful , huge, and massive again. We will be roaring again. We will be tired of winning in the stock market so much that we will be hoping for a drop in the market.

Folks, ladies and gentlemen it's too f**g late. The disruptions to oil and gas distribution will take awhile to address. And as a result inflation will go up, your gas prices aren't going back to your January prices.

Use your analytical skills for once for God sake.

Dunning-Kruger

Like most investors lol. I swear when my DH starts talking about the market you would think he has a PhD in econ from MIT. He doesn't sh**t, yet he acts like he does. It was a battle getting us to agree to just use a target fund for retirement instead trying to play experts.

Sadly when it comes to investing almost everyone think they know a lot because when they look at their portfolio growing they feel good about their choice. And when it goes down, they have a theory of why it's happening.

[Anonymous]

I thought the down was going to go up 3000 points today. Was the peace deal already priced in?

[Anonymous]

Well I feel dumb. Sold $100K and parked it in G. Maybe I’ll remember can’t time the market next time. Do I buy back in or wait it out?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well I feel dumb. Sold $100K and parked it in G. Maybe I’ll remember can’t time the market next time. Do I buy back in or wait it out?

Dont feel dumb. It's just a 2 weeks truce. Yes the market is up today because of all the cash sitting on the sideline that's begging to be invested.

In the new few days once it becomes clear that all the damages fo oil and gas facilities in the Gulf will impact supply in the months to come the market will react accordingly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well I feel dumb. Sold $100K and parked it in G. Maybe I’ll remember can’t time the market next time. Do I buy back in or wait it out?

Patience. The outlook is not good. The truce is already breaking down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well I feel dumb. Sold $100K and parked it in G. Maybe I’ll remember can’t time the market next time. Do I buy back in or wait it out?

Of course you buy back in. Don’t make the same mistake again. You shouldn’t have cash sitting on the sidelines beyond your emergency fund.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well I feel dumb. Sold $100K and parked it in G. Maybe I’ll remember can’t time the market next time. Do I buy back in or wait it out?

Of course you buy back in. Don’t make the same mistake again. You shouldn’t have cash sitting on the sidelines beyond your emergency fund.

Most HYSA are around 3.2%. IMO in this climate keeping extra cash that will keep up with inflation is not necessarily a bad idea.

Now of course we know how AmErica works. They will soon go on rate cutting spree to force you to hand over your money to the casino.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well I feel dumb. Sold $100K and parked it in G. Maybe I’ll remember can’t time the market next time. Do I buy back in or wait it out?

When the first missile was launched I sold $900k worth of VOO in my Roth and kept it there. I can care less if I lose potential gain in the process. I (we) have done very well post COVID.

I'll gladly buy VOO again when once our policy becomes predictable again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What drives me crazy are people who think that if the war ends today suddenly dow will go up to 60k and everything will be big, beautiful , huge, and massive again. We will be roaring again. We will be tired of winning in the stock market so much that we will be hoping for a drop in the market.

Folks, ladies and gentlemen it's too f**g late. The disruptions to oil and gas distribution will take awhile to address. And as a result inflation will go up, your gas prices aren't going back to your January prices.

Use your analytical skills for once for God sake.

Dunning-Kruger

I’m not an expert but I do feel like people in the know are manipulating markets. And also that they will continue to do so. It may not all be in their control (eg, something major happens in another country), but to the extent it is, I guess my little invested pennies will be ok as they are along for whatever ride these people are directing. Not saying it’s ok.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well I feel dumb. Sold $100K and parked it in G. Maybe I’ll remember can’t time the market next time. Do I buy back in or wait it out?

Futures are already down. Today was a hit of crack, but reality will settle in. This is a very weird market. It clearly wants to pump based on nothing more than a tweet. It's a day traders game. But if you're in for the long term, invest wisely and don't look at it for the duration of the Trump presidency.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well I feel dumb. Sold $100K and parked it in G. Maybe I’ll remember can’t time the market next time. Do I buy back in or wait it out?

When the first missile was launched I sold $900k worth of VOO in my Roth and kept it there. I can care less if I lose potential gain in the process. I (we) have done very well post COVID.

I'll gladly buy VOO again when once our policy becomes predictable again.

Haha - ok, well it’s not looking good for you so far. Crazy to me that people will straight up gamble with such large sums of money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well I feel dumb. Sold $100K and parked it in G. Maybe I’ll remember can’t time the market next time. Do I buy back in or wait it out?

When the first missile was launched I sold $900k worth of VOO in my Roth and kept it there. I can care less if I lose potential gain in the process. I (we) have done very well post COVID.

I'll gladly buy VOO again when once our policy becomes predictable again.

Haha - ok, well it’s not looking good for you so far. Crazy to me that people will straight up gamble with such large sums of money.

PP said he sold them in his Roth and kept the proceeds there. He will simply lose potential gain in the process. The worse move would have been to sell, take out the money from Roth and buy something more fashionable. Honestly that's not the worst move for someone who is nervous.

[Anonymous]

There is too much volatility unfortunately the best course of action is to do nothing.

If you are a long term investor who doesn't need the money in 5 years or so, you should be able to stomach up to 50% decline. No need to panic if your losses haven't reached -50%

But I'm not an expert. That's just the mindset I have. When we tabulate all our assets we consider our equity position to be 50% less than what it is. This way if we have a true economic calamity we are not going to have strokes lol