Dow below 40000 by end of the year

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some people think there is no way the Dow will go below 40,000. Maybe they know something I don't.

Algorithms are going to people it up. Look at this thread full of buyers trying to catch the dip. We have a generation of stock buyers with zero commission fees always ready to jump in and out.

Algorithms can also all panic sell. Hasn't happened in a bit but Google flash crash.

That was 16 years ago. And we recovered in a day; Google what “flash” means. It was a blink and you miss it crash because everyone is trying to capture those big gain days. If market drops, buyers pour in to catch the upside.

The only way we will see valuations drops will be a slow bleeding as inflation whittles away at real value and nominal prices stall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are lot of arrogant and confident people on this forum. Nobody has a crystal ball. But I urge everyone to do a little reading about that particular part of the world where the conflict is happening. Don't just go back 100 years, go further back. You will then understand that this time our hubris may cost us a lot.

Sorry...how far back? What are you trying to reference here?

I think he is referring to the history of the Far East. It's actually very fascinating and the parallels between then and today are so similar. 100 years from now our descendent will remember this event the way we read about the Far East

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are lot of arrogant and confident people on this forum. Nobody has a crystal ball. But I urge everyone to do a little reading about that particular part of the world where the conflict is happening. Don't just go back 100 years, go further back. You will then understand that this time our hubris may cost us a lot.

Sorry...how far back? What are you trying to reference here?

I think he is referring to the history of the Far East. It's actually very fascinating and the parallels between then and today are so similar. 100 years from now our descendent will remember this event the way we read about the Far East

I meant Near East not Far.

[Anonymous]

Even after the current events in the Middle East are solved we have challenges ahead. Namely the private credit market, health care cost, aging population, labor shortage in construction, possible job market disruptions due to AI, etc.

I think the market return over the past 5 years have gotten all in of us so high that we are ignoring the fact that it may very well take awhile before we see such returns again given the issues I cited above.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Even after the current events in the Middle East are solved we have challenges ahead. Namely the private credit market, health care cost, aging population, labor shortage in construction, possible job market disruptions due to AI, etc.

I think the market return over the past 5 years have gotten all in of us so high that we are ignoring the fact that it may very well take awhile before we see such returns again given the issues I cited above.

+1

[Anonymous]

I hope OP took some of kind of stock option because we are under 46000 points. If we end the month below 45000, anything is possible. If you had asked me 2 weeks ago I would have said the Dow will be over 50k. Anyways I'm an Index fund investor, so I just buy in regular intervals like a robot. I just don't became se that's what everyone does. Everyone tells me because the past turned out okay, the future will be as well. So I just follow you y'all.

[Anonymous]

For those who are not aware of new to investing there is always going to be socialism for the market. The US government will always and I repeat always bail out the market if things get really bad. For this reason stay invested.

If you get fired that's capitalism for you. The government calls it efficient and it won't come to your rescue.

So remember this socialism for wall street and capitalism for main street. For this reason don't sell. Even if Dow goes to 30,000 it will go back up. The government will bail out the market always. I'm so surprised people don't know this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I hope OP took some of kind of stock option because we are under 46000 points. If we end the month below 45000, anything is possible. If you had asked me 2 weeks ago I would have said the Dow will be over 50k. Anyways I'm an Index fund investor, so I just buy in regular intervals like a robot. I just don't became se that's what everyone does. Everyone tells me because the past turned out okay, the future will be as well. So I just follow you y'all.

Index investor here as well. You should see how many new (Post-Covid) investors are freaking out right.

[Anonymous]

I don’t know what to panic about. I recalibrated my portfolio with it all started - diversified into different sectors, dividend stocks and countries. My portfolio is nowhere near “correcting” territory in fact today it only went down 0.19% vs 0.5 S&P

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are lot of arrogant and confident people on this forum. Nobody has a crystal ball. But I urge everyone to do a little reading about that particular part of the world where the conflict is happening. Don't just go back 100 years, go further back. You will then understand that this time our hubris may cost us a lot.

Sorry...how far back? What are you trying to reference here?

I think he is referring to the history of the Far East. It's actually very fascinating and the parallels between then and today are so similar. 100 years from now our descendent will remember this event the way we read about the Far East

I meant Near East not Far.

Can you give some recommendations of books to read?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some people think there is no way the Dow will go below 40,000. Maybe they know something I don't.

Algorithms are going to people it up. Look at this thread full of buyers trying to catch the dip. We have a generation of stock buyers with zero commission fees always ready to jump in and out.

Algorithms can also all panic sell. Hasn't happened in a bit but Google flash crash.

That was 16 years ago. And we recovered in a day; Google what “flash” means. It was a blink and you miss it crash because everyone is trying to capture those big gain days. If market drops, buyers pour in to catch the upside.

The only way we will see valuations drops will be a slow bleeding as inflation whittles away at real value and nominal prices stall.

Yeah, I was pointing out it can happen. And have you ever heard the term markets take the escalator up and elevator down?

[Anonymous]

Nope.will be 51k+

[Anonymous]

I laughed at OP when I first saw saw the thread. But it looks we are going toward 40k as opposed to 50k.

The problem though is there is so much so much cash in this economy thanks to fed bazooka of free money and the S&P rocket like take off post COVID there is nowhere else to put the money.

Think about this folks there is so much money and the only place to put it it's in in the stock market.

And this why the market has not reached 40k. Because of index funds people just keep buying the "dips" over and over and over. Whether there are serious challenges in the economy it's irrelevant. There is so much money and only 1 place to park it, there is even no such think as a "dip" anymore especially since the collective thinking is that it will go back up so folks are just buying over and over.

The next time we have a true crash it will be awful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For those who are not aware of new to investing there is always going to be socialism for the market. The US government will always and I repeat always bail out the market if things get really bad. For this reason stay invested.

If you get fired that's capitalism for you. The government calls it efficient and it won't come to your rescue.

So remember this socialism for wall street and capitalism for main street. For this reason don't sell. Even if Dow goes to 30,000 it will go back up. The government will bail out the market always. I'm so surprised people don't know this.

Good luck timing that socialism though. That's where you need Pelosi level access to actually profit. Feel free to keep catching the falling knife!

[Anonymous]

All my gains I made in Jan-Feb have been wiped out now. My FA seems to think we're good with a lot of gold and such and doesn't think we should change course. But everything is sinking on the daily. Holding tight, its a ride.