Reply to Dow below 40000 by end of the year

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I had a liquidity event earlier this year, and now have a few million sitting in SGOV. Don't want to catch this falling knife. Hard to see what the timeline looks like on this mini-correction.

The way it's looking now, market is anticipating a ground invasion of Iran. If there are concrete steps taken wherein it's clear that won't happen, I think we see green for the next 6 months. [/quote]

The market is NOT anticipating American troops on the ground in Iran. Should that happen, we can expect oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf to be completely destroyed. It would take many years to bring it back online. It would likely also be the beginning of the end for the petrodollar. Plus, it is militarily impossible to secure the Hormuz Strait from threats to shipping. There is no way tankers are getting insurance without safe passage guarantees from Iran. Which means no tankers for Europe or Asia for a very long time. An American boot touching Iranian soil spells catastrophe. And that is not priced in at all. [/quote]

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