Reply to Dow below 40000 by end of the year

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I had a liquidity event earlier this year, and now have a few million sitting in SGOV. Don't want to catch this falling knife. Hard to see what the timeline looks like on this mini-correction.

The way it's looking now, market is anticipating a ground invasion of Iran. If there are concrete steps taken wherein it's clear that won't happen, I think we see green for the next 6 months. [/quote]

The market is NOT anticipating American troops on the ground in Iran. Should that happen, we can expect oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf to be completely destroyed. It would take many years to bring it back online. It would likely also be the beginning of the end for the petrodollar. Plus, it is militarily impossible to secure the Hormuz Strait from threats to shipping. There is no way tankers are getting insurance without safe passage guarantees from Iran. Which means no tankers for Europe or Asia for a very long time. An American boot touching Iranian soil spells catastrophe. And that is not priced in at all. [/quote]

There won't be troops on the ground. It's a vast country and ran by fanatics. I don't think we are going to send in troops. And if we do, for what purpose? That county is ruined anyways, they will collapse on their own weight.

Now when Libya collapsed I don't think the surrounding countries were affected much. I don't know much about geopolitics but I have eyes that can look a map and I can read the names of the countries surrounding that country. If that country collapses, can we say confidently that surrounding countries won't be affected? I have no idea. But let's assume that if it collapses whatever is left is super friendly to the west and will facilitate the commercialization of gas and oil, will that nascent country be able to do so at minimal cost? Or will.tnos cause a permanent increase in the price of oil and gas.

I think some of us are just so clueless but acting like they know everything. I do also realize that it's very American for us to always be optimistic. Honestly I have no idea about what's to come.

Whether comes next the market will react either positively or negatively because the repercussions will be felt sooner or later by everyday people. [/quote]

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