The future of Russia. Any foreign policy experts want to weigh in?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.

Interesting! Does your family have access to information or are they also blinded by the Russian propaganda machine? Do you enlighten them?
Also, do you think that the "overcoming difficulties" gene is still strong, especially after Western exposure and luxuries? Even with the youth? I'd think it'd be waning.

You don't understand. The Western exposure and luxuries were always available only to a minority of Russians, just like it's a minority in America that travels abroad regularly.

For those outside large urban centers, it's always been a slog. As one of my favorite Russian bloggers wrote shortly after the war, "congratulations, we probably won't see Vienna or Barcelona any time soon. Do you know how many Americans have ever seen either? Less than 10%, in all likelihood. Now, we'll be like Americans and vacation at the nearby lake. Enjoy."

[Anonymous]

A bigger version of North Korea.

Even China is sick of Russia now and is abaonding them.

[Anonymous]

There is no path to independence for Chechnya, none whatsoever, so for them being "integrated" into Russia is a very, very good thing. I always thought it was quite hypocritical that Russia was blasted for the aggressive suppression of the Chechen revolt, as if territorial integrity should only apply to some countries but not others.

I'm not even saying I disagree with you. Of course there is no path, Chechnya would be a failed state now as it was on its way to be in 1992. Beign integrated in Russia is not a very, very good thing either, I would say it is the definition of between a rock and a hard place. By the way, some say territorial integrity, others say self determination, and why does Russia get to decide that? Is it Ukraine's territorial integrity or Donetsk People's self-determination? What about Georgia's territorial integrity? I find that hypocritical.

Dudaev was neither good-looking nor eloquent.

Whatever Хаз ву ле вац; суна бе дац, на вкус и цвет...

Not just my opinion, he was far more distinguished looking than the current inbred goat that runs the place now

And, like it or not, Dudayev had extremely impressive foresight 30 years ago, about Ukraine! There is a reason that the 1995 interview from Dudayev is going viral, he predicted exactly what is happening in Ukraine right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.

Interesting! Does your family have access to information or are they also blinded by the Russian propaganda machine? Do you enlighten them?
Also, do you think that the "overcoming difficulties" gene is still strong, especially after Western exposure and luxuries? Even with the youth? I'd think it'd be waning.

You don't understand. The Western exposure and luxuries were always available only to a minority of Russians, just like it's a minority in America that travels abroad regularly.

For those outside large urban centers, it's always been a slog. As one of my favorite Russian bloggers wrote shortly after the war, "congratulations, we probably won't see Vienna or Barcelona any time soon. Do you know how many Americans have ever seen either? Less than 10%, in all likelihood. Now, we'll be like Americans and vacation at the nearby lake. Enjoy."

But a big difference is that here in America we can easily get access to all of the media as well as unvarnished information directly from the source, as opposed to strictly being spoonfed propaganda and information heavily screened, filtered and censored by Roskomnadzor. And, we don't immediately get arrested for questioning or criticizing what we hear - or even just holding up a blank sign.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.

Interesting! Does your family have access to information or are they also blinded by the Russian propaganda machine? Do you enlighten them?
Also, do you think that the "overcoming difficulties" gene is still strong, especially after Western exposure and luxuries? Even with the youth? I'd think it'd be waning.

You don't understand. The Western exposure and luxuries were always available only to a minority of Russians, just like it's a minority in America that travels abroad regularly.

For those outside large urban centers, it's always been a slog. As one of my favorite Russian bloggers wrote shortly after the war, "congratulations, we probably won't see Vienna or Barcelona any time soon. Do you know how many Americans have ever seen either? Less than 10%, in all likelihood. Now, we'll be like Americans and vacation at the nearby lake. Enjoy."

But a big difference is that here in America we can easily get access to all of the media as well as unvarnished information directly from the source, as opposed to strictly being spoonfed propaganda and information heavily screened, filtered and censored by Roskomnadzor. And, we don't immediately get arrested for questioning or criticizing what we hear - or even just holding up a blank sign.

To be fair, many Americans are spoonfed propaganda, it's called Fox News
That said, you can't underestimate all Russians. Given their propensity for hacking, there are plenty of Russians who know how to use Telegram, or heck, VPNs, although VPNs are actually banned last I heard, but you can go to another country and purchase a VPN and then use it in Russia.

But yes, you are mostly right, the propaganda runs deep, so I won't quite make a false equivalency there but it isn't black & white either

[Anonymous]

And this is what I was referring to

At 1:30, incredibly based.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

There is no path to independence for Chechnya, none whatsoever, so for them being "integrated" into Russia is a very, very good thing. I always thought it was quite hypocritical that Russia was blasted for the aggressive suppression of the Chechen revolt, as if territorial integrity should only apply to some countries but not others.

I'm not even saying I disagree with you. Of course there is no path, Chechnya would be a failed state now as it was on its way to be in 1992. Beign integrated in Russia is not a very, very good thing either, I would say it is the definition of between a rock and a hard place. By the way, some say territorial integrity, others say self determination, and why does Russia get to decide that? Is it Ukraine's territorial integrity or Donetsk People's self-determination? What about Georgia's territorial integrity? I find that hypocritical.

Dudaev was neither good-looking nor eloquent.

Whatever Хаз ву ле вац; суна бе дац, на вкус и цвет...

Not just my opinion, he was far more distinguished looking than the current inbred goat that runs the place now

And, like it or not, Dudayev had extremely impressive foresight 30 years ago, about Ukraine! There is a reason that the 1995 interview from Dudayev is going viral, he predicted exactly what is happening in Ukraine right now.

Russia doesn't get to decide that but neither does anyone else. The global discourse about "territorial integrity" and "right of self-determination" is infused with hypocrisy. There is no logical rule as to who gets to be independent and who doesn't. Some countries break apart and the powers that be say it's a good thing, and then some countries want to break apart, and the powers that be say no. It's all lies and hypocrites.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And this is what I was referring to

At 1:30, incredibly based.

Spot on.

Remember this quote?
"NATO, despite all our protests and concerns, continued to steadily expand. The war machine is moving and, I repeat, it is coming close to our borders"

Ukraine is more of a spiritual battle for Russia. Ukrainians were once the most trusted of the Soviet satellite countries. They were trusted to operate nuclear weapons and were Russia's shield from the West. Instead, what happened? It's like how a mob boss turns against the disloyal. I think this is why Russian propagandists label Ukraine as an "existential threat".

Remember when Putin made the creepy "lie down" threat? I can't find the exact quote right now, but it referred to a really nasty story involving a dead woman? It gave a lot of insight into exactly how much political capital Putin was pouring into the Special Operation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And this is what I was referring to

At 1:30, incredibly based.

Spot on.

Remember this quote?
"NATO, despite all our protests and concerns, continued to steadily expand. The war machine is moving and, I repeat, it is coming close to our borders"

Ukraine is more of a spiritual battle for Russia. Ukrainians were once the most trusted of the Soviet satellite countries. They were trusted to operate nuclear weapons and were Russia's shield from the West. Instead, what happened? It's like how a mob boss turns against the disloyal. I think this is why Russian propagandists label Ukraine as an "existential threat".

Remember when Putin made the creepy "lie down" threat? I can't find the exact quote right now, but it referred to a really nasty story involving a dead woman? It gave a lot of insight into exactly how much political capital Putin was pouring into the Special Operation.

NATO only exists because the Soviet Union, and now Russia, have been an existential threat. And that's proven itself via Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.

Interesting! Does your family have access to information or are they also blinded by the Russian propaganda machine? Do you enlighten them?
Also, do you think that the "overcoming difficulties" gene is still strong, especially after Western exposure and luxuries? Even with the youth? I'd think it'd be waning.

You don't understand. The Western exposure and luxuries were always available only to a minority of Russians, just like it's a minority in America that travels abroad regularly.

For those outside large urban centers, it's always been a slog. As one of my favorite Russian bloggers wrote shortly after the war, "congratulations, we probably won't see Vienna or Barcelona any time soon. Do you know how many Americans have ever seen either? Less than 10%, in all likelihood. Now, we'll be like Americans and vacation at the nearby lake. Enjoy."

But a big difference is that here in America we can easily get access to all of the media as well as unvarnished information directly from the source, as opposed to strictly being spoonfed propaganda and information heavily screened, filtered and censored by Roskomnadzor. And, we don't immediately get arrested for questioning or criticizing what we hear - or even just holding up a blank sign.

To be completely honest, the range of acceptable opinions fit to print in the mainstream media in the US is very narrow. Deplatforming dissent is the same as censorship.

You can access pretty much anything in Russia with a VPN.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And this is what I was referring to

At 1:30, incredibly based.

Spot on.

Remember this quote?
"NATO, despite all our protests and concerns, continued to steadily expand. The war machine is moving and, I repeat, it is coming close to our borders"

Ukraine is more of a spiritual battle for Russia. Ukrainians were once the most trusted of the Soviet satellite countries. They were trusted to operate nuclear weapons and were Russia's shield from the West. Instead, what happened? It's like how a mob boss turns against the disloyal. I think this is why Russian propagandists label Ukraine as an "existential threat".

Remember when Putin made the creepy "lie down" threat? I can't find the exact quote right now, but it referred to a really nasty story involving a dead woman? It gave a lot of insight into exactly how much political capital Putin was pouring into the Special Operation.

Well it's not quite that....the context of the conversation was Putin quoting Zelensky as not liking the Minsk accords and therefore not being inclined to follow them. (And it's true, Ukraine never did follow them). Putin referred to a popular ditty of "whether you like it or not, it's your duty, my beauty". Crass as it was, the context was that once the treaty is signed, you have to follow it whether you like it or not.

Of course, then Merkel had to open her big mouth and say that "we only signed the Minsk accords to buy time for Ukraine to grow its army." Gave extra fuel to Putin's claim that the West never acted in good faith.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And this is what I was referring to

At 1:30, incredibly based.

Honestly, Dudaev shouldn't be the one to talk.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.

Interesting! Does your family have access to information or are they also blinded by the Russian propaganda machine? Do you enlighten them?
Also, do you think that the "overcoming difficulties" gene is still strong, especially after Western exposure and luxuries? Even with the youth? I'd think it'd be waning.

You don't understand. The Western exposure and luxuries were always available only to a minority of Russians, just like it's a minority in America that travels abroad regularly.

For those outside large urban centers, it's always been a slog. As one of my favorite Russian bloggers wrote shortly after the war, "congratulations, we probably won't see Vienna or Barcelona any time soon. Do you know how many Americans have ever seen either? Less than 10%, in all likelihood. Now, we'll be like Americans and vacation at the nearby lake. Enjoy."

But a big difference is that here in America we can easily get access to all of the media as well as unvarnished information directly from the source, as opposed to strictly being spoonfed propaganda and information heavily screened, filtered and censored by Roskomnadzor. And, we don't immediately get arrested for questioning or criticizing what we hear - or even just holding up a blank sign.

To be completely honest, the range of acceptable opinions fit to print in the mainstream media in the US is very narrow. Deplatforming dissent is the same as censorship.

You can access pretty much anything in Russia with a VPN.

I had said this upthread and this is truth but don’t even bother with the false equivalency. Most people in the US are not for Cancel Culture, and there is always a place to say the most extreme things here. Russia has real cancel culture and a lot more consequences for going against the mainstream or doing or saying anything “non-standard.” Have you been to Russia?
It was like this even ten years ago.

Some people who can use Telegram and VPNs get around censorship, yes, but there is a lot more societal conformity

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.

Interesting! Does your family have access to information or are they also blinded by the Russian propaganda machine? Do you enlighten them?
Also, do you think that the "overcoming difficulties" gene is still strong, especially after Western exposure and luxuries? Even with the youth? I'd think it'd be waning.

You don't understand. The Western exposure and luxuries were always available only to a minority of Russians, just like it's a minority in America that travels abroad regularly.

For those outside large urban centers, it's always been a slog. As one of my favorite Russian bloggers wrote shortly after the war, "congratulations, we probably won't see Vienna or Barcelona any time soon. Do you know how many Americans have ever seen either? Less than 10%, in all likelihood. Now, we'll be like Americans and vacation at the nearby lake. Enjoy."

But a big difference is that here in America we can easily get access to all of the media as well as unvarnished information directly from the source, as opposed to strictly being spoonfed propaganda and information heavily screened, filtered and censored by Roskomnadzor. And, we don't immediately get arrested for questioning or criticizing what we hear - or even just holding up a blank sign.

To be completely honest, the range of acceptable opinions fit to print in the mainstream media in the US is very narrow. Deplatforming dissent is the same as censorship.

You can access pretty much anything in Russia with a VPN.

I had said this upthread and this is truth but don’t even bother with the false equivalency. Most people in the US are not for Cancel Culture, and there is always a place to say the most extreme things here. Russia has real cancel culture and a lot more consequences for going against the mainstream or doing or saying anything “non-standard.” Have you been to Russia?
It was like this even ten years ago.

Some people who can use Telegram and VPNs get around censorship, yes, but there is a lot more societal conformity

Most people may not be for Cancel Culture but most people are not the ones controlling access to platforms, mainstream media or tenured professorships. You are deluding yourself if you think dissenting opinions in America have no bearing on your professional and social advancement.

Minority opinions in the US do exist but they are pushed out to marginalized platforms, and then they are blamed for being marginalized.

There is no equivalency with Russia, that's true, but let's get real about the extent of censorship in the US of A. It's much more insidious because it's completely voluntary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And this is what I was referring to

At 1:30, incredibly based.

Honestly, Dudaev shouldn't be the one to talk.

Where is the lie, though?

You may not like it, but President Dzhokhar Dudayev said more truth in the 1995 interview than the inbred kozyol “president” has said in a decade. I’m not even a Dudayev Stan as many diaspora people are. Nor was I a supporter, I was literally six. I’m just saying, he was entirely right about Russia’s expansionist policy.


It’s not all the false equivalencies and whataboutisms. Putin is wrong and NATO has done wrong but one side is clearly more wrong. I’m not a foreign policy advisor and I don’t even work in the field (that’s probably good), but I honestly would. Not. Care. If the Russian Federation fell apart. I’m certainly not advocating for it but if their dysfunctional and aggressive government pushed things too far, like the ant to the flame like Dudayev said, and they fell apart into splintered republics I would say they had it coming. Why should we care about Russia’s territorial integrity since there are basically no redeeming qualities to Russian society anymore. And there once was, that’s too bad.