Anonymous wrote:Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?
I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.
So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:
A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.
These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.
Russia is in trouble. They will not get out of sanctions without paying trillions to Ukraine. Most likely outcome is just a general slide towards nothingness. Nothing positive to be sure. But right now Russia can't even fight Ukraine so they are well on the path.
Anonymous wrote:Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?
I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.
So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:
A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.
These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.
Russia is in trouble. They will not get out of sanctions without paying trillions to Ukraine. Most likely outcome is just a general slide towards nothingness. Nothing positive to be sure. But right now Russia can't even fight Ukraine so they are well on the path.
Russian oil? Russia paying trillions? Please. I hope you're not a US decision making official. I don't think you understand what's happening at all.
Schools in St. Petersburg, Russia, have been ordered to buy assault rifles and dummy grenades to be used in class as part of a Soviet-era basic military training course that has been reinstated amidst the war in Ukraine. A local court in St. Petersburg ruled that local schools must be equipped with an assortment of items that are to be used by teachers and students as part of a so-called "initial military training" program. The program, which teaches children how to assemble and disassemble firearms, how to provide first aid, and how to respond to a nuclear or chemical attack, was abolished in 1993 and reinstated by Russia's Education Minister Sergey Kravtsov. The ruling came after the St. Petersburg prosecutor's office conducted inspections in schools, and found that they didn't have the arsenal required to equip classrooms for the course. According to the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta, schools were ordered this month to ensure they have items including gun safes, oxygen and toxic gas analyzers, protective suits, models of F-1 and RGD-5 grenades, shooting simulators, wound and injury simulators for training mannequins, and magazines for Kalashnikov assault rifles with training cartridges. "The list of equipment from the Ministry of Education is mandatory," the city committee on education told the paper. "Models of grenades and machine guns are also needed since in the near future the subject 'initial military training' will be introduced into the program for 10-11th graders." One school attempted to argue that grenades and shooting simulators are not necessary for schools, but the court disagreed, local news outlet Fotanka reported. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-schools-grenades-rifles-military-training-1781065
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has set off a historic exodus of his own people. Initial data shows that at least 500,000, and perhaps nearly 1 million, have left in the year since the invasion began — a tidal wave on scale with emigration following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.
The financial cost, while vast, is impossible to calculate. In late December, Russia’s Communications Ministry reported that 10 percent of the country’s IT workers had left in 2022 and not returned. Russia’s parliament is now debating a package of incentives to bring them back.
Assuming a Russian killed/casualty figures are now comperable to the U.S. Korean and Vietnam wars (e.g. somewhere between 128K and 211K).
The difference was the Korean war was about 3 years long and the Vietnam war extended over about 20 years, with the majority of casualties within about 5'ish years.
Trajectory-wise, Russia is probably closer to WWI in terms of comparable losses
U.S. Civil war ~ 1M in four years
WW I ~320K in four years
WW II ~ 1M in five years
Russia is about half the population of the US with 1.8 times as much land. Also note the female surplus in Russia (brown, right of red), with a birth rate of less than 2.
Anonymous wrote:Assuming a Russian killed/casualty figures are now comperable to the U.S. Korean and Vietnam wars (e.g. somewhere between 128K and 211K).
The difference was the Korean war was about 3 years long and the Vietnam war extended over about 20 years, with the majority of casualties within about 5'ish years.
Trajectory-wise, Russia is probably closer to WWI in terms of comparable losses
U.S. Civil war ~ 1M in four years
WW I ~320K in four years
WW II ~ 1M in five years
Russia is about half the population of the US with 1.8 times as much land. Also note the female surplus in Russia (brown, right of red), with a birth rate of less than 2.
This seems like a good time to remind people that Ukraine never made their casualty numbers public.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has set off a historic exodus of his own people. Initial data shows that at least 500,000, and perhaps nearly 1 million, have left in the year since the invasion began — a tidal wave on scale with emigration following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.
The financial cost, while vast, is impossible to calculate. In late December, Russia’s Communications Ministry reported that 10 percent of the country’s IT workers had left in 2022 and not returned. Russia’s parliament is now debating a package of incentives to bring them back.
This also seems like a good time to say that Ukraine's refugee count is currently at seven million.
Anonymous wrote:Evil men have enemies too, PP. presence of enemies is not the proof of goodness.
Never said it was? The point was that if you never stand up against Evil, you're part of the problem.
The main difference is that Evil makes enemies, Good finds enemies.
So you're a solution in search of a problem?
Huh? Wow. You really are twisted, you know?
Let me leave you with some words from long ago.
“to live in truth, to have faith, to repent one’s sins, give proof of humility, to love justice, to be merciful, to be sincere and wholehearted, and to endure persecution”
These words may mean nothing to do as your are now, but someday, I hope it does. Take care.
What? lol was that the inspiration to scorch-earth Iraq? Afghanistan? Libya? What were the Americans doing there, living in truth? practicing wholeheartedness?
Oh yes. Artsakh. Whose destruction Ukraine applauded. Whose people are currently being starved and frozen by Azerbaijan while the world looks on, and Azeri dictators are welcome in all western capitals. Tell me again about the love of democracies etc?
Anonymous wrote:I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.
Interesting! Does your family have access to information or are they also blinded by the Russian propaganda machine? Do you enlighten them?
Also, do you think that the "overcoming difficulties" gene is still strong, especially after Western exposure and luxuries? Even with the youth? I'd think it'd be waning.
Family: it depends. None of them is totally blinded by the propaganda but they all think that Ukraine went too far in trying to be with the West and rejecting Russia, the Russian language, etc.
They don’t phrase it like that but that’s the essence.
None of them can face the fact that the war, the power struggle was a huge mistake. They think there is “something” to it. Even those who think Putin and his cronies are criminals etc
I tried to share my POV but while they are all respectful they clearly think I have been brainwashed
The “overcoming difficulties” gene is still there in a lot of people. One of the things that surprised me in connection with this war is how few people have actually been exposed to Western values and luxury beyond Burger King and such. And Chinese phones are preferred over Apple by and large
They don't understand and accept that Ukraine moving to the West and rejecting Russia is a direct result of Russia's continual meddling and corrupting of Ukraine, their invasion in 2014?
They don't understand that it is Russia's own belligerent behavior that is also pushing Finland and Sweden into NATO?
Why did Russia invade in 2014?
In 2014, Ukraine wanted to join the EU. But Putin didn't want this, so he had his corrupt, criminal puppet Yanukovich betray and derail them. Students began protesting, Yanukovich sent Berkut to violently beat them down, this violence made a lot of people upset causing the protests to escalate, ultimately resulting in Yanukovich's ouster. Putin invaded out of revenge for Yanukovich's ouster.
DP. I want $1K and will never get it. These were the chances that Ukraine would join EU any time soon. This is a very superficial explanation of why Russia invaded and what Ukrainian Maidan leaders wanted.
Superficial? I'd suggest some superficiality on your part to casually ignore that the Verkhovna Rada voted on the Ukraine-EU agreement and it passed with a solid majority, before Yanukovich unilaterally scuttled the deal and announced that Ukraine would instead pursue closer ties with Russia.
The EU would not have signed it without significant changes and it was heavily conditioned on a number of things
Honestly I am surprised Russia seemed so upset by it. Europe was trying to lure Ukraine in but it wasn’t going to make it easy
But of course Ukraine shouldn’t have angered the bear without any real chances of getting anything
I don’t believe they didn’t know it was all illusion and they had a long way ahead of them
There must have been something else. Like maybe politicians just using some popular gimmicks to stay in power
Well, that's quite a take. I certainly don't think everyone that was pro-Maidan was as pure as the driven snow, but I also don't think it's a real stretch to believe that the relatively young population of Ukraine wanted something different than to be a Putin puppet state. If anyone overplayed their hand here, it's Putin, time and again.
I don’t blame them, I would rather have American or any of the EU citizenships than Russian, too.
However they needed to be realistic. The West wasn’t going to welcome them with open arms. Russia wasn’t going to let go of what it considered theirs.
This whole illusion of Ukraine being Europe (or worse, a cynical lie by certain politicians) is what brought Ukraine to a sad state it is in now.
Is it fair that it can’t leave Russia’s orbit, at least without major destruction? No! But is it true? Certainly yes.
I don't know that I agree with this. We can quibble about what "open arms" means here, but the fact that the West was rooting for Ukraine to succeed/stand on its own is exactly the issue. Too bad if Putin has a different interpretation of "his" than the rest of the world.
The west didn’t and doesn’t care about Ukraine one bit. I am not talking about gullible Americans but the governments. They care about having a stable predictable neighbor and about not letting Russia or China or anyone for that matter become strong enough to threaten the US and its allies.
This was the whole reason of dangling the EU carrot in front of Ukraine and Georgia. Apparently Georgians were a little smarter to keep their mouths shut about their EU ambitions and also more lucky since they are of less value to Russia than Ukraine. So now Ukraine bears the brunt of the Russian anger.
Again, I am not defending Russia but just explaining the reasoning
The west likes stability, and it likes good trade partners. And I know of a lot of Americans who worked with Ukraine and viewed Ukraine very favorably. Ukraine has a lot of good software developers and other innovators, in addition to its more traditional economy. If they didn't truly care about Ukraine there wouldn't even have been any carrots dangled.
Maybe we just have different definitions of care
Well, we've clearly and repeatedly seen the Russian definition of "care" - it's "do what we tell you to or we will blast your town into rubble and send any survivors that were left to freeze and starve to death in the middle of nowhere." I'll take western care over Russian care, thank you.
I can't tell if you're describing Iraq or Ukraine.
Russia definitely did this to Chechens. And now they are doing it to Ukraine as well. Totally beyond me what your weird insinuatin about "Iraq" is supposed to mean.
Just that your description of Russia's M.O. sounds suspiciously like...oh, every other country making war on another country.
I must have missed the part where the American troops in Iraq rounded up most of the Iraqis and loaded them into cattle cars with no food and water and sent them off to some wasteland in the frozen north. And burned the ones who resisted alive.
Did you miss half a million dead Iraqis too? Or are you only counting the dead who are white?
Are you missing the part where American soldiers didn't kill those Iraqis? Most of them were killed by insurgents, ISIS, sectarian groups et cetera. And how disgusting of you to suggest "only counting the dead who are white."
Gee, that's like saying, I didn't kill that guy, I only put him in a box car with no food or water in subzero temperature. It's like...you want the freedom to fock up countries and total immunity from the bad stuff that happens in a focked-up country.
Ah right, right. It's America's fault because they didn't use their magic Hogwarts CIA Brain Washing Wand. They should have just waved it in the air and solved hundreds of years worth of Muslim sectarian divides, solved ISIS and everything else, like how they brainwashed all of those Ukrainian students into protesting Yanukovich. How foolish that they didn't think of that.
Yes, this is sarcasm. And it's clear where the different lines of bullshit Russian propaganda begin to collide with each other.
If only there was an option to do nothing and not invade!
Sure, just leave them alone. Should have let Iraq invade Kuwait. Should stop meddling and let Russia invade and annex Georgia, Ukraine and other countries. Everyone is allowed to invade but the US needs to stay in its corner, shut up, mind its own business and let them. Got it. I guess we should have just let the Nazis take over too. America is just constantly wrong no matter what it does. /s
Anonymous wrote:I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.
Interesting! Does your family have access to information or are they also blinded by the Russian propaganda machine? Do you enlighten them?
Also, do you think that the "overcoming difficulties" gene is still strong, especially after Western exposure and luxuries? Even with the youth? I'd think it'd be waning.
Family: it depends. None of them is totally blinded by the propaganda but they all think that Ukraine went too far in trying to be with the West and rejecting Russia, the Russian language, etc.
They don’t phrase it like that but that’s the essence.
None of them can face the fact that the war, the power struggle was a huge mistake. They think there is “something” to it. Even those who think Putin and his cronies are criminals etc
I tried to share my POV but while they are all respectful they clearly think I have been brainwashed
The “overcoming difficulties” gene is still there in a lot of people. One of the things that surprised me in connection with this war is how few people have actually been exposed to Western values and luxury beyond Burger King and such. And Chinese phones are preferred over Apple by and large
They don't understand and accept that Ukraine moving to the West and rejecting Russia is a direct result of Russia's continual meddling and corrupting of Ukraine, their invasion in 2014?
They don't understand that it is Russia's own belligerent behavior that is also pushing Finland and Sweden into NATO?
Why did Russia invade in 2014?
In 2014, Ukraine wanted to join the EU. But Putin didn't want this, so he had his corrupt, criminal puppet Yanukovich betray and derail them. Students began protesting, Yanukovich sent Berkut to violently beat them down, this violence made a lot of people upset causing the protests to escalate, ultimately resulting in Yanukovich's ouster. Putin invaded out of revenge for Yanukovich's ouster.
DP. I want $1K and will never get it. These were the chances that Ukraine would join EU any time soon. This is a very superficial explanation of why Russia invaded and what Ukrainian Maidan leaders wanted.
Superficial? I'd suggest some superficiality on your part to casually ignore that the Verkhovna Rada voted on the Ukraine-EU agreement and it passed with a solid majority, before Yanukovich unilaterally scuttled the deal and announced that Ukraine would instead pursue closer ties with Russia.
The EU would not have signed it without significant changes and it was heavily conditioned on a number of things
Honestly I am surprised Russia seemed so upset by it. Europe was trying to lure Ukraine in but it wasn’t going to make it easy
But of course Ukraine shouldn’t have angered the bear without any real chances of getting anything
I don’t believe they didn’t know it was all illusion and they had a long way ahead of them
There must have been something else. Like maybe politicians just using some popular gimmicks to stay in power
Well, that's quite a take. I certainly don't think everyone that was pro-Maidan was as pure as the driven snow, but I also don't think it's a real stretch to believe that the relatively young population of Ukraine wanted something different than to be a Putin puppet state. If anyone overplayed their hand here, it's Putin, time and again.
I don’t blame them, I would rather have American or any of the EU citizenships than Russian, too.
However they needed to be realistic. The West wasn’t going to welcome them with open arms. Russia wasn’t going to let go of what it considered theirs.
This whole illusion of Ukraine being Europe (or worse, a cynical lie by certain politicians) is what brought Ukraine to a sad state it is in now.
Is it fair that it can’t leave Russia’s orbit, at least without major destruction? No! But is it true? Certainly yes.
I don't know that I agree with this. We can quibble about what "open arms" means here, but the fact that the West was rooting for Ukraine to succeed/stand on its own is exactly the issue. Too bad if Putin has a different interpretation of "his" than the rest of the world.
The west didn’t and doesn’t care about Ukraine one bit. I am not talking about gullible Americans but the governments. They care about having a stable predictable neighbor and about not letting Russia or China or anyone for that matter become strong enough to threaten the US and its allies.
This was the whole reason of dangling the EU carrot in front of Ukraine and Georgia. Apparently Georgians were a little smarter to keep their mouths shut about their EU ambitions and also more lucky since they are of less value to Russia than Ukraine. So now Ukraine bears the brunt of the Russian anger.
Again, I am not defending Russia but just explaining the reasoning
The west likes stability, and it likes good trade partners. And I know of a lot of Americans who worked with Ukraine and viewed Ukraine very favorably. Ukraine has a lot of good software developers and other innovators, in addition to its more traditional economy. If they didn't truly care about Ukraine there wouldn't even have been any carrots dangled.
Maybe we just have different definitions of care
Well, we've clearly and repeatedly seen the Russian definition of "care" - it's "do what we tell you to or we will blast your town into rubble and send any survivors that were left to freeze and starve to death in the middle of nowhere." I'll take western care over Russian care, thank you.
I can't tell if you're describing Iraq or Ukraine.
Russia definitely did this to Chechens. And now they are doing it to Ukraine as well. Totally beyond me what your weird insinuatin about "Iraq" is supposed to mean.
Just that your description of Russia's M.O. sounds suspiciously like...oh, every other country making war on another country.
I must have missed the part where the American troops in Iraq rounded up most of the Iraqis and loaded them into cattle cars with no food and water and sent them off to some wasteland in the frozen north. And burned the ones who resisted alive.
Did you miss half a million dead Iraqis too? Or are you only counting the dead who are white?
Are you missing the part where American soldiers didn't kill those Iraqis? Most of them were killed by insurgents, ISIS, sectarian groups et cetera. And how disgusting of you to suggest "only counting the dead who are white."
Gee, that's like saying, I didn't kill that guy, I only put him in a box car with no food or water in subzero temperature. It's like...you want the freedom to fock up countries and total immunity from the bad stuff that happens in a focked-up country.
Ah right, right. It's America's fault because they didn't use their magic Hogwarts CIA Brain Washing Wand. They should have just waved it in the air and solved hundreds of years worth of Muslim sectarian divides, solved ISIS and everything else, like how they brainwashed all of those Ukrainian students into protesting Yanukovich. How foolish that they didn't think of that.
Yes, this is sarcasm. And it's clear where the different lines of bullshit Russian propaganda begin to collide with each other.
If only there was an option to do nothing and not invade!
Sure, just leave them alone. Should have let Iraq invade Kuwait. Should stop meddling and let Russia invade and annex Georgia, Ukraine and other countries. Everyone is allowed to invade but the US needs to stay in its corner, shut up, mind its own business and let them. Got it. I guess we should have just let the Nazis take over too. America is just constantly wrong no matter what it does. /s
+1
LOL honey every Chechen male child is taught about firearms on his daddy's knee. The person who wrote this knows nothing about the area.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has set off a historic exodus of his own people. Initial data shows that at least 500,000, and perhaps nearly 1 million, have left in the year since the invasion began — a tidal wave on scale with emigration following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.
The financial cost, while vast, is impossible to calculate. In late December, Russia’s Communications Ministry reported that 10 percent of the country’s IT workers had left in 2022 and not returned. Russia’s parliament is now debating a package of incentives to bring them back.
This also seems like a good time to say that Ukraine's refugee count is currently at seven million.
Ukrainians are in physical danger if they stay. Russians are not.
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