The future of Russia. Any foreign policy experts want to weigh in?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Yeah, weird, because it translates from Mongolian to "Do you want to be a dog's brother?"

LOL! It literally means "Do you speak Chechen?"

I never thought Ramzan was smart enough to hack Google Translate, that's wild.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Yeah, weird, because it translates from Mongolian to "Do you want to be a dog's brother?"

LOL! It literally means "Do you speak Chechen?"

I never thought Ramzan was smart enough to hack Google Translate, that's wild.

Check it and see for yourself, dog's brother.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin will launch a Nuke into Germany.

He launches a nuke, and Moscow, Petrograd, and wherever he's trying to hide, cease to be.

But I don't think he will. Nuclear deterrence has always been a bogeyman at the fore of Russian military psyche. As much as they think they can rattle the sabers, they know it would be the end for them if they ever actually pushed the button.

Learn that in our policy class did we, little buttercup? Pfft.

Communist officials let children march in the Chernobyl May day parade in swirling radioactive dust. To this day Belarus has a massive cancer / deformity rate. Former Soviet Union military tactics included the possibility of charging through a tactical nuke strike. And I wouldn't forget Simonyan's little song at the "fore of Russian military psyche".

https://www.thedailybeast.com/rts-margarita-s...re-troops-in-ukraine

After noting that the situation is very difficult, Simonyan decided to sing verses from an old Soviet song, “The March of the Red Cavalry.” [* see note below] Other panelists awkwardly looked down, as she sang and then reiterated the lyrics about moving forward and never backing down. Simonyan went on: “If we back down, what awaits us—and I don’t mean it as hyperbole or metaphorically speaking—is everything that is described in [Adolf] Hitler’s table conversations, written down by his aides and secretaries. With a lot of gusto, he described in great detail how he saw our place on earth. It was a plan to turn us into yahoos—from “Gulliver's Travels”—abominable creatures, resembling human beings. They look just like us, but in reality they’re nothing like us. They can’t read or write, they can barely talk—that was written in Hitler’s table conversations. He even wanted us to lose our language, communicating with the use of signs and gestures.”

Simonyan recounted Hitlers plans to turn Russians into a mass of people, denied basic rights, from vaccination to education. To keep them in a good mood, the enslaved masses would be entertained with happy tunes, constantly being played for their enjoyment. Simonyan argued: “If you think that sounds wild, let’s remember that it isn’t. Let’s remember the 90s when this is exactly what happened. There was fun and music everywhere, but nothing to eat.” Head of RT alleged, in all seriousness: “This is exactly what awaits us in the future if we back down. Are we ready to live that way?” She added: “Let’s not think that this is just some local conflict... For us, this is a question of continuing to exist in our current state.”

Concluding her bizarre performance on Solovyov’s show, Simonyan said: “People ask when, where and how our special operation will end. It will end when all the ‘nerus,’ all the ‘vyrus,’ everyone who wants to turn us into yahoos, everyone who directs them, everyone who brainwashes them, will suffer infamy and shame. It may take 3 months, 3 years or 30 years, so be it. What other choice do we have?” Solovyov replied: “Our other choice? Reduce the whole world to dust. Just not yet.” Smiling, Simonyan** replied, “And we will go to heaven.”

*The significance of the song about The March of the Red Cavalry it's the equivalent of a Custard's Last Stand.
**Symonyan really isn't a true Russian and could even say she's nerus herself?

How much of it is bloviating chestbeating propaganda, versus how much of it is idiotic suicidal behavior? Russia also has a long history of empty saber rattling. They didn't forsee this turning into a real war. They spent billions thinking they were winning Ukrainians over and genuinely thought "Special Military Operation" would be over in 3 days and that they would be received with flowers and kisses and open arms. Russia is full of propped-up nonsense.

[Anonymous]

Simonyan, Soloviev and the rest can try and spin their grandiose yarns but the reality is that Russia has been reduced to smoke and mirrors. The fact that they are now sending guys to the front, untrained, with Mosin-Nagant rifles from 1892 and rusted-out T-62 tanks and telling them they have to pay for their own food and uniforms doesn't speak highly to their capabilities. They barely even send jets to the front anymore, because they don't have enough pilots and are afraid of being shot down by Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Even in the Soviet era, a lot of it was smoke and mirrors. Look at how the Foxbat was overhyped, or what a joke their grand aircraft carrier Kuznetsov turned out to be.

It's only gotten a lot worse since.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Yeah, weird, because it translates from Mongolian to "Do you want to be a dog's brother?"

LOL! It literally means "Do you speak Chechen?"

I never thought Ramzan was smart enough to hack Google Translate, that's wild.

Check it and see for yourself, dog's brother.

I didn’t get that result through Google translate, but it did tell me that нохчийн (Noxchiyn, the word for the Chechen language) is the Mongolian word for “nail polish”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin will launch a Nuke into Germany.

He launches a nuke, and Moscow, Petrograd, and wherever he's trying to hide, cease to be.

But I don't think he will. Nuclear deterrence has always been a bogeyman at the fore of Russian military psyche. As much as they think they can rattle the sabers, they know it would be the end for them if they ever actually pushed the button.

Learn that in our policy class did we, little buttercup? Pfft.

Communist officials let children march in the Chernobyl May day parade in swirling radioactive dust. To this day Belarus has a massive cancer / deformity rate. Former Soviet Union military tactics included the possibility of charging through a tactical nuke strike. And I wouldn't forget Simonyan's little song at the "fore of Russian military psyche".

https://www.thedailybeast.com/rts-margarita-s...re-troops-in-ukraine

After noting that the situation is very difficult, Simonyan decided to sing verses from an old Soviet song, “The March of the Red Cavalry.” [* see note below] Other panelists awkwardly looked down, as she sang and then reiterated the lyrics about moving forward and never backing down. Simonyan went on: “If we back down, what awaits us—and I don’t mean it as hyperbole or metaphorically speaking—is everything that is described in [Adolf] Hitler’s table conversations, written down by his aides and secretaries. With a lot of gusto, he described in great detail how he saw our place on earth. It was a plan to turn us into yahoos—from “Gulliver's Travels”—abominable creatures, resembling human beings. They look just like us, but in reality they’re nothing like us. They can’t read or write, they can barely talk—that was written in Hitler’s table conversations. He even wanted us to lose our language, communicating with the use of signs and gestures.”

Simonyan recounted Hitlers plans to turn Russians into a mass of people, denied basic rights, from vaccination to education. To keep them in a good mood, the enslaved masses would be entertained with happy tunes, constantly being played for their enjoyment. Simonyan argued: “If you think that sounds wild, let’s remember that it isn’t. Let’s remember the 90s when this is exactly what happened. There was fun and music everywhere, but nothing to eat.” Head of RT alleged, in all seriousness: “This is exactly what awaits us in the future if we back down. Are we ready to live that way?” She added: “Let’s not think that this is just some local conflict... For us, this is a question of continuing to exist in our current state.”

Concluding her bizarre performance on Solovyov’s show, Simonyan said: “People ask when, where and how our special operation will end. It will end when all the ‘nerus,’ all the ‘vyrus,’ everyone who wants to turn us into yahoos, everyone who directs them, everyone who brainwashes them, will suffer infamy and shame. It may take 3 months, 3 years or 30 years, so be it. What other choice do we have?” Solovyov replied: “Our other choice? Reduce the whole world to dust. Just not yet.” Smiling, Simonyan** replied, “And we will go to heaven.”

*The significance of the song about The March of the Red Cavalry it's the equivalent of a Custard's Last Stand.
**Symonyan really isn't a true Russian and could even say she's nerus herself?

How much of it is bloviating chestbeating propaganda, versus how much of it is idiotic suicidal behavior? Russia also has a long history of empty saber rattling. They didn't forsee this turning into a real war. They spent billions thinking they were winning Ukrainians over and genuinely thought "Special Military Operation" would be over in 3 days and that they would be received with flowers and kisses and open arms. Russia is full of propped-up nonsense.

"Custard's" Last Stand?
LOL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.

Interesting! Does your family have access to information or are they also blinded by the Russian propaganda machine? Do you enlighten them?
Also, do you think that the "overcoming difficulties" gene is still strong, especially after Western exposure and luxuries? Even with the youth? I'd think it'd be waning.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Putin will launch a Nuke into Germany.


He launches a nuke, and Moscow, Petrograd, and wherever he's trying to hide, cease to be.

But I don't think he will. Nuclear deterrence has always been a bogeyman at the fore of Russian military psyche. As much as they think they can rattle the sabers, they know it would be the end for them if they ever actually pushed the button.


Learn that in our policy class did we, little buttercup? Pfft.

Communist officials let children march in the Chernobyl May day parade in swirling radioactive dust. To this day Belarus has a massive cancer / deformity rate. Former Soviet Union military tactics included the possibility of charging through a tactical nuke strike. And I wouldn't forget Simonyan's little song at the "fore of Russian military psyche".

https://www.thedailybeast.com/rts-margarita-s...re-troops-in-ukraine

After noting that the situation is very difficult, Simonyan decided to sing verses from an old Soviet song, “The March of the Red Cavalry.” [* see note below] Other panelists awkwardly looked down, as she sang and then reiterated the lyrics about moving forward and never backing down. Simonyan went on: “If we back down, what awaits us—and I don’t mean it as hyperbole or metaphorically speaking—is everything that is described in [Adolf] Hitler’s table conversations, written down by his aides and secretaries. With a lot of gusto, he described in great detail how he saw our place on earth. It was a plan to turn us into yahoos—from “Gulliver's Travels”—abominable creatures, resembling human beings. They look just like us, but in reality they’re nothing like us. They can’t read or write, they can barely talk—that was written in Hitler’s table conversations. He even wanted us to lose our language, communicating with the use of signs and gestures.”

Simonyan recounted Hitlers plans to turn Russians into a mass of people, denied basic rights, from vaccination to education. To keep them in a good mood, the enslaved masses would be entertained with happy tunes, constantly being played for their enjoyment. Simonyan argued: “If you think that sounds wild, let’s remember that it isn’t. Let’s remember the 90s when this is exactly what happened. There was fun and music everywhere, but nothing to eat.” Head of RT alleged, in all seriousness: “This is exactly what awaits us in the future if we back down. Are we ready to live that way?” She added: “Let’s not think that this is just some local conflict... For us, this is a question of continuing to exist in our current state.”

Concluding her bizarre performance on Solovyov’s show, Simonyan said: “People ask when, where and how our special operation will end. It will end when all the ‘nerus,’ all the ‘vyrus,’ everyone who wants to turn us into yahoos, everyone who directs them, everyone who brainwashes them, will suffer infamy and shame. It may take 3 months, 3 years or 30 years, so be it. What other choice do we have?” Solovyov replied: “Our other choice? Reduce the whole world to dust. Just not yet.” Smiling, Simonyan** replied, “And we will go to heaven.”

*The significance of the song about The March of the Red Cavalry it's the equivalent of a Custard's Last Stand.
**Symonyan really isn't a true Russian and could even say she's nerus herself?


How much of it is bloviating chestbeating propaganda, versus how much of it is idiotic suicidal behavior? Russia also has a long history of empty saber rattling. They didn't forsee this turning into a real war. They spent billions thinking they were winning Ukrainians over and genuinely thought "Special Military Operation" would be over in 3 days and that they would be received with flowers and kisses and open arms. Russia is full of propped-up nonsense.


"Custard's" Last Stand?
LOL.

I don't know about Custard's Last Stand, but Mustard's Last Stand in Evanston, IL (outside Chicago) is really good.

https://mustardschicago.com/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Yeah, weird, because it translates from Mongolian to "Do you want to be a dog's brother?"

LOL! It literally means "Do you speak Chechen?"

I never thought Ramzan was smart enough to hack Google Translate, that's wild.

Check it and see for yourself, dog's brother.

I didn’t get that result through Google translate, but it did tell me that нохчийн (Noxchiyn, the word for the Chechen language) is the Mongolian word for “nail polish”

It's oddly hilarious that so many Chechnyan and Mongolian words have identical spelling but wildly divergent meanings.

On another note, it's also interesting to see that some of Ramzan Kadyrov's biggest Chechnyan rivals are showing up arm in arm with Ukraine. If/when Kadyrov stumbles or fails, he's setting the stage for a takeover by his rivals.

[Anonymous]

An interesting article from former ambassador McFaul

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/...-legitimacy-support/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Yeah, weird, because it translates from Mongolian to "Do you want to be a dog's brother?"

LOL! It literally means "Do you speak Chechen?"

I never thought Ramzan was smart enough to hack Google Translate, that's wild.

Check it and see for yourself, dog's brother.

I didn’t get that result through Google translate, but it did tell me that нохчийн (Noxchiyn, the word for the Chechen language) is the Mongolian word for “nail polish”

It's oddly hilarious that so many Chechnyan and Mongolian words have identical spelling but wildly divergent meanings.

On another note, it's also interesting to see that some of Ramzan Kadyrov's biggest Chechnyan rivals are showing up arm in arm with Ukraine. If/when Kadyrov stumbles or fails, he's setting the stage for a takeover by his rivals.

Somehow I wonder if the Mongolian translator is accurate, or an approximation? Or maybe you actually know Mongolian?

Another interesting fact, dog in Chechen means "heart"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Yeah, weird, because it translates from Mongolian to "Do you want to be a dog's brother?"

As for Kadyrov/rivals, I really would not be so sure. Kadyrov has such an iron grip that it's impossible to know what kind of opposition he really has, except I know multiple people who denounced Kadyrov the second they and their family permanently left Chechnya, and people who have nothing/no one left to lose. There's also a share of the people who legitimately accept being integrated within Russia for no reason other than 20 years of war being exhausting.

The Chechen battalions in Ukraine are mostly from Chechen diaspora, and in the event that some have switched sides, it is at an extremely high risk to their families back in Chechnya.

There's also the fact that the Chechen diaspora tends to romanticize independence, especially those who are generation removed from the first Chechen war. For example, the Dudayev battalion. You see Chechens from Turkey and Western Europe refer to Dudayev as this legendary folk hero, when in reality he was as authoritarian and corrupt as anyone else and did not set up a functional government. He would have been a dictator, just a good looking and eloquent dictator. Dudayev was basically central casting for a revolutionary. So you can understand why somebody with no conscious memories of the 1990s would idolize Dudayev as like an edgy, cool revolutionary..

LOL! It literally means "Do you speak Chechen?"

I never thought Ramzan was smart enough to hack Google Translate, that's wild.

Check it and see for yourself, dog's brother.

I didn’t get that result through Google translate, but it did tell me that нохчийн (Noxchiyn, the word for the Chechen language) is the Mongolian word for “nail polish”

It's oddly hilarious that so many Chechnyan and Mongolian words have identical spelling but wildly divergent meanings.

On another note, it's also interesting to see that some of Ramzan Kadyrov's biggest Chechnyan rivals are showing up arm in arm with Ukraine. If/when Kadyrov stumbles or fails, he's setting the stage for a takeover by his rivals.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Yeah, weird, because it translates from Mongolian to "Do you want to be a dog's brother?"

LOL! It literally means "Do you speak Chechen?"

I never thought Ramzan was smart enough to hack Google Translate, that's wild.

Check it and see for yourself, dog's brother.

I didn’t get that result through Google translate, but it did tell me that нохчийн (Noxchiyn, the word for the Chechen language) is the Mongolian word for “nail polish”

It's oddly hilarious that so many Chechnyan and Mongolian words have identical spelling but wildly divergent meanings.

On another note, it's also interesting to see that some of Ramzan Kadyrov's biggest Chechnyan rivals are showing up arm in arm with Ukraine. If/when Kadyrov stumbles or fails, he's setting the stage for a takeover by his rivals.

As for Kadyrov/rivals, I really would not be so sure. Kadyrov has such an iron grip that it's impossible to know what kind of opposition he really has, except I know multiple people who denounced Kadyrov the second they and their family permanently left Chechnya, and people who have nothing/no one left to lose. There's also a share of the people who legitimately accept being integrated within Russia for no reason other than 20 years of war being exhausting.

The Chechen battalions in Ukraine are mostly from Chechen diaspora, and in the event that some have switched sides, it is at an extremely high risk to their families back in Chechnya.

There's also the fact that the Chechen diaspora tends to romanticize independence, especially those who are generation removed from the first Chechen war. For example, the Dudayev battalion. You see Chechens from Turkey and Western Europe refer to Dudayev as this legendary folk hero, when in reality he was as authoritarian and corrupt as anyone else and did not set up a functional government. He would have been a dictator, just a good looking and eloquent dictator. Dudayev was basically central casting for a revolutionary. So you can understand why somebody with no conscious memories of the 1990s would idolize Dudayev as like an edgy, cool revolutionary..

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Yeah, weird, because it translates from Mongolian to "Do you want to be a dog's brother?"

LOL! It literally means "Do you speak Chechen?"

I never thought Ramzan was smart enough to hack Google Translate, that's wild.

Check it and see for yourself, dog's brother.

I didn’t get that result through Google translate, but it did tell me that нохчийн (Noxchiyn, the word for the Chechen language) is the Mongolian word for “nail polish”

It's oddly hilarious that so many Chechnyan and Mongolian words have identical spelling but wildly divergent meanings.

On another note, it's also interesting to see that some of Ramzan Kadyrov's biggest Chechnyan rivals are showing up arm in arm with Ukraine. If/when Kadyrov stumbles or fails, he's setting the stage for a takeover by his rivals.

As for Kadyrov/rivals, I really would not be so sure. Kadyrov has such an iron grip that it's impossible to know what kind of opposition he really has, except I know multiple people who denounced Kadyrov the second they and their family permanently left Chechnya, and people who have nothing/no one left to lose. There's also a share of the people who legitimately accept being integrated within Russia for no reason other than 20 years of war being exhausting.

The Chechen battalions in Ukraine are mostly from Chechen diaspora, and in the event that some have switched sides, it is at an extremely high risk to their families back in Chechnya.

There's also the fact that the Chechen diaspora tends to romanticize independence, especially those who are generation removed from the first Chechen war. For example, the Dudayev battalion. You see Chechens from Turkey and Western Europe refer to Dudayev as this legendary folk hero, when in reality he was as authoritarian and corrupt as anyone else and did not set up a functional government. He would have been a dictator, just a good looking and eloquent dictator. Dudayev was basically central casting for a revolutionary. So you can understand why somebody with no conscious memories of the 1990s would idolize Dudayev as like an edgy, cool revolutionary..

There is no path to independence for Chechnya, none whatsoever, so for them being "integrated" into Russia is a very, very good thing. I always thought it was quite hypocritical that Russia was blasted for the aggressive suppression of the Chechen revolt, as if territorial integrity should only apply to some countries but not others.

Dudaev was neither good-looking nor eloquent.