The future of Russia. Any foreign policy experts want to weigh in?

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Assuming a Russian killed/casualty figures are now comperable to the U.S. Korean and Vietnam wars (e.g. somewhere between 128K and 211K).

The difference was the Korean war was about 3 years long and the Vietnam war extended over about 20 years, with the majority of casualties within about 5'ish years.

Trajectory-wise, Russia is probably closer to WWI in terms of comparable losses

U.S. Civil war ~ 1M in four years
WW I ~320K in four years
WW II ~ 1M in five years

Russia is about half the population of the US with 1.8 times as much land. Also note the female surplus in Russia (brown, right of red), with a birth rate of less than 2.



This seems like a good time to remind people that Ukraine never made their casualty numbers public.


This seems like a good time to remind people that Russia never made their casualty numbers public.


Anonymous
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Anonymous wrote:I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.


Interesting! Does your family have access to information or are they also blinded by the Russian propaganda machine? Do you enlighten them?
Also, do you think that the "overcoming difficulties" gene is still strong, especially after Western exposure and luxuries? Even with the youth? I'd think it'd be waning.


Family: it depends. None of them is totally blinded by the propaganda but they all think that Ukraine went too far in trying to be with the West and rejecting Russia, the Russian language, etc.
They don’t phrase it like that but that’s the essence.
None of them can face the fact that the war, the power struggle was a huge mistake. They think there is “something” to it. Even those who think Putin and his cronies are criminals etc
I tried to share my POV but while they are all respectful they clearly think I have been brainwashed
The “overcoming difficulties” gene is still there in a lot of people. One of the things that surprised me in connection with this war is how few people have actually been exposed to Western values and luxury beyond Burger King and such. And Chinese phones are preferred over Apple by and large


They don't understand and accept that Ukraine moving to the West and rejecting Russia is a direct result of Russia's continual meddling and corrupting of Ukraine, their invasion in 2014?
They don't understand that it is Russia's own belligerent behavior that is also pushing Finland and Sweden into NATO?

Why did Russia invade in 2014?


In 2014, Ukraine wanted to join the EU. But Putin didn't want this, so he had his corrupt, criminal puppet Yanukovich betray and derail them. Students began protesting, Yanukovich sent Berkut to violently beat them down, this violence made a lot of people upset causing the protests to escalate, ultimately resulting in Yanukovich's ouster. Putin invaded out of revenge for Yanukovich's ouster.


DP. I want $1K and will never get it. These were the chances that Ukraine would join EU any time soon. This is a very superficial explanation of why Russia invaded and what Ukrainian Maidan leaders wanted.


Superficial? I'd suggest some superficiality on your part to casually ignore that the Verkhovna Rada voted on the Ukraine-EU agreement and it passed with a solid majority, before Yanukovich unilaterally scuttled the deal and announced that Ukraine would instead pursue closer ties with Russia.


The EU would not have signed it without significant changes and it was heavily conditioned on a number of things
Honestly I am surprised Russia seemed so upset by it. Europe was trying to lure Ukraine in but it wasn’t going to make it easy
But of course Ukraine shouldn’t have angered the bear without any real chances of getting anything
I don’t believe they didn’t know it was all illusion and they had a long way ahead of them
There must have been something else. Like maybe politicians just using some popular gimmicks to stay in power


Well, that's quite a take. I certainly don't think everyone that was pro-Maidan was as pure as the driven snow, but I also don't think it's a real stretch to believe that the relatively young population of Ukraine wanted something different than to be a Putin puppet state. If anyone overplayed their hand here, it's Putin, time and again.


It's also quite a stretch to think that millions of Ukrainians were brainwashed by the CIA. Was Nuland gifted a magic CIA brainwashing wand, made by the Hogwarts Goblins of Langley, she just waves it around and says some pseudo-latin thing like "Cerebri Lavatio" and millions of previously Putin-loving Ukrainians all woke up zombified, chanting "ALL HAIL THE EUROPEAN UNION! REJECT THE SATAN THAT IS RUSSIA!"

What’s Nuland focused on lately?
Anonymous
It will be part of the Empire of Poland.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:It will be part of the Empire of Poland.

Huh?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:



Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has set off a historic exodus of his own people. Initial data shows that at least 500,000, and perhaps nearly 1 million, have left in the year since the invasion began — a tidal wave on scale with emigration following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.

The financial cost, while vast, is impossible to calculate. In late December, Russia’s Communications Ministry reported that 10 percent of the country’s IT workers had left in 2022 and not returned. Russia’s parliament is now debating a package of incentives to bring them back.



This also seems like a good time to say that Ukraine's refugee count is currently at seven million.


At the outset of the war, seven million Ukrainians fled or were displaced by the invasion. Since then, more than half have returned. The ones who are still outside Ukraine are still heavily supporting their homeland financially and via other means.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It will be part of the Empire of Poland.

Huh?


A Russian missile will inadvertently strike Poland. They will invade conquering what it now a third world country in a week.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It will be part of the Empire of Poland.

Huh?


A Russian missile will inadvertently strike Poland. They will invade conquering what it now a third world country in a week.

Anyone know what he’s talking about?
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