The future of Russia. Any foreign policy experts want to weigh in?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

WWIII is the main concern for most people who haven't lost their marbles. At this point being so close to targeted objects wouldn't give me much comfort, so I am surprised how few in DC metro are afraid of this scenario. What becomes of the other half of the world (while very important) isn't nearly as relevant as trying to figure out where one must escape during Nuclear attack and subsequent fallout. And it may not be nuclear, there are chemical/bio weapons that can completely destroy continents. A deadlier pandemic with the virus with 80% mortality rate will wipe out not only most people but entire infrastructure and leaving only hellscape behind that none of you would want to live in and where the living will envy the dead.

If DC gets hit with a nuke I get vaporized. It is what it is. Doesn't keep me up at night.

Makes sense, we are so close that we will get vaporized and probably feel nothing. We also will be the envy of those who would survive and die of injuries in extreme pain or have gradual demise from slower radiation poisoning, or have to deal with the horrors of survival in the post apocalyptic hellscape.

Russia will also be in a post apocalyptic hellscape. They'd be fools to nuke anyone.

[Anonymous]

As mentioned above the Russia-Ukraine conflict will grind forward to a stalemate next year with Russia annexing a significant chunk of Eastern Ukraine. Western support for Ukraine will wane, leaving the situation pretty much as is.

Russia will then declare "victory" and retreat inward, occasionally rattling sabers with provocative language but otherwise relying on existing infrastructure and Chinese investment to lick their wounds for the next 10 years. At that point they will have rebuilt their military , and will either renew the war with Ukraine, or invade another non-NATO country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will align with China and the BRICs as a resource rich nuclear power behind a new reserve currency.

In other words, they will sell themselves out to China and become China's puppet, because "fck the West."

Brilliant.

Well, China internally refers to Russian Siberia as it’s “northern resource area”. So whether Russia sells out willingly or otherwise, China will still own Siberia one day.

[Anonymous]

Will become a province of China, making China even stronger, reaching Europe directly and outflanking Israel.

#BrilliantMove

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Will become a province of China, making China even stronger, reaching Europe directly and outflanking Israel.

#BrilliantMove

(for China, of course. Not for Russia, Ukraine, the US, Europe or Israel)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Will become a province of China, making China even stronger, reaching Europe directly and outflanking Israel.

#BrilliantMove

Putin Remains a Master Strategist

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Will become a province of China, making China even stronger, reaching Europe directly and outflanking Israel.

#BrilliantMove

Putin Remains a Master Strategist

Not that Joe is much better...

Xi will be the likely winner.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Will become a province of China, making China even stronger, reaching Europe directly and outflanking Israel.

#BrilliantMove

Putin Remains a Master Strategist

Not that Joe is much better...

Xi will be the likely winner.

At least they are all many times better vs trump and his supporters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As mentioned above the Russia-Ukraine conflict will grind forward to a stalemate next year with Russia annexing a significant chunk of Eastern Ukraine. Western support for Ukraine will wane, leaving the situation pretty much as is.

Russia will then declare "victory" and retreat inward, occasionally rattling sabers with provocative language but otherwise relying on existing infrastructure and Chinese investment to lick their wounds for the next 10 years. At that point they will have rebuilt their military , and will either renew the war with Ukraine, or invade another non-NATO country.

Ehh, at best they will retain Crimea, and portions of what they currently hold. At worst, they will collapse.

I still question if Putin will survive if the people ever actually learn the truth of how many Russians were pointlessly sent to die in the meat grinder without training, without adequate equipment, and so on. When they realize that what had once been the world's second most powerful and feared military was robbed by Putin and his oligarch buddies. That Russia has become a pariah state.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will align with China and the BRICs as a resource rich nuclear power behind a new reserve currency.

The energy policies of global warmers have Russia making lots of money from its energy reserves, including selling to lots of developing countries.
The foreign policy of hating Israel by the West will have Russia getting lots of support from Israel, as is happening right now with regards to Ukraine.
Russia has both Iran and Israel on its side.

This is not a thing.

But that said, bear in mind that Israel is entirely propped up by the West. If Israeli leadership wants to embrace Russia and sever ties with the West they will be in for a bit of a shock.

+1

If by hating you mean the US not enthusiastically embracing West Bank annexation, oppression of Palestinians, the rise of far-right anti-gay patriarchal zealot type of leaders try at are part of the new government that Netanyahu has aligned himself with well then. Also, you ever read how Israel treated Ethiopian Jews? Not very nicely. I love Israel, but Jesus, it’s okay to criticize some of the governmental policy. People can exercise objective thought.

[Anonymous]

I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will align with China and the BRICs as a resource rich nuclear power behind a new reserve currency.

The energy policies of global warmers have Russia making lots of money from its energy reserves, including selling to lots of developing countries.
The foreign policy of hating Israel by the West will have Russia getting lots of support from Israel, as is happening right now with regards to Ukraine.
Russia has both Iran and Israel on its side.

Energy, Food, fertilizer and resources are more valuable than currency conjured out of thin air. Who knew?

[Anonymous]

Pointless rhetoric and your options are not at all logical.
None of your scenarios can or will happen. For another decade, the U.S. will be a superpower. From then on, there will be less of a superpower vs. the rest attitude and more even power.
Unlike after the Second World War, when the U.S. manufactured most of the things and could 100% sustain itself, we now rely on outside goods and manufacturing for most basic things. The U.S. helped rebuild certain economies, but now it is destroying them with an inflated dollar value. That is bad; BCS Rome/Egypt/England could withstand outside invaders but could not survive the loss of their markets and the import of the necessary goods.

Add to that Western Europe heavily depends on Russian goods and understands that the U.S. is profiting greatly (great for us right now) from the lack of Russian imports; they do know that the party that benefits the most from a prolonged war in Europe is the U.S and its military-industrial complex. (think about why nobody is reporting on the Middle East and Africa having no wheat right now in mainstream media. It does not fit with the sales of weapons, which you pay for and CEOs pocket the gains.)

Anyway, I am thinking of some break in the business of listening to the U.S. happens in the next decade. In the end, we might see the U.S. Empire as we are so in debt and so uneducated and so many live in extreme poverty, this turn will benefit us, the small people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As mentioned above the Russia-Ukraine conflict will grind forward to a stalemate next year with Russia annexing a significant chunk of Eastern Ukraine. Western support for Ukraine will wane, leaving the situation pretty much as is.

Russia will then declare "victory" and retreat inward, occasionally rattling sabers with provocative language but otherwise relying on existing infrastructure and Chinese investment to lick their wounds for the next 10 years. At that point they will have rebuilt their military , and will either renew the war with Ukraine, or invade another non-NATO country.

Ehh, at best they will retain Crimea, and portions of what they currently hold. At worst, they will collapse.

I still question if Putin will survive if the people ever actually learn the truth of how many Russians were pointlessly sent to die in the meat grinder without training, without adequate equipment, and so on. When they realize that what had once been the world's second most powerful and feared military was robbed by Putin and his oligarch buddies. That Russia has become a pariah state.

But, Russians, most of them, don't see it that way. They see and hear that Russians are protecting Russians and fighting the Nazis. Just like you are hearing that Russians are in the meat grinder.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

I think Kadyrov will try to do a power grab. I suspect Prigozhin may as well. Although by the same token I sometimes wonder if Prigozhin may also be on constant guard lest he himself fall out of a window.