The future of Russia. Any foreign policy experts want to weigh in?

[Anonymous]

Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

[Anonymous]

A hermit kingdom, like North Korea, but with far better weapons and resources, exporting weapons to bad actors around the world.

[Anonymous]

I haven't been really knowledgeable about Russian for almost 20 years, but I was before that. The only thing I know for sure about it is that Western media is consistently and remarkably misrepresents just about everything that happens there. There is a huge gap between reality and what we read.

Just for fun I'll make predictions anyway. First, Russia will not be democratic anytime soon, if ever. Russian people do not have a strong belief in the power of democracy, and are much more accepting - and approving - of authoritarianism.

However, in spite of a strong spirit of stoicism, they are also accepting of violence in support of political change, when an authoritarian regime has too long and too severely neglected people's basic needs - mostly economic (they are less concerned with western values of "freedom" and civil rights). Much of Russia's history looks to me like a tug-of-war between totalitarian rule of fear and threat of violent rebellion, perhaps even a spiral in which each one increases until something gives (perhaps even Western interference) and one side comes out on top. For a while.

Moments when government has undergone significant change in Russia have typically come at times of weakness - usually a new ruler, seen as weaker than the previous one (i.e. the last czar, Gorbachev). All the most tyrannical regimes have continued up until the death of the ruler - Stalin being possibly the worst, was not displaced until the moment he died, and possibly not even then as apparently close aides were too afraid of him to even behave as if he were dead, for fear it was a trick. So based on that, there is reason to believe that Putin's abuses will be tolerated until he dies, and at that point there will be a chance for a significant, undemocratic change in government.

As for Russia becoming an isolated backwater, I doubt it. Russia has significant industry, technology, education, and general infrastructure. And if they aren't completely brain-drained by now, they never will be. I think it is most likely they will continue on as they have - a semi-violent and mildly chaotic tinkering toward a more perfect authoritarianism - one which provides economic prosperity for everyone (not just oligarchs) and supports a large middle class in relative comfort.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents, and that's probably what it's worth.

[Anonymous]

Given their demographics and economy, they will be a quiet, irrelevant, but well-off backwater once Putin kicks it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I haven't been really knowledgeable about Russian for almost 20 years, but I was before that. The only thing I know for sure about it is that Western media is consistently and remarkably misrepresents just about everything that happens there. There is a huge gap between reality and what we read.

Just for fun I'll make predictions anyway. First, Russia will not be democratic anytime soon, if ever. Russian people do not have a strong belief in the power of democracy, and are much more accepting - and approving - of authoritarianism.

However, in spite of a strong spirit of stoicism, they are also accepting of violence in support of political change, when an authoritarian regime has too long and too severely neglected people's basic needs - mostly economic (they are less concerned with western values of "freedom" and civil rights). Much of Russia's history looks to me like a tug-of-war between totalitarian rule of fear and threat of violent rebellion, perhaps even a spiral in which each one increases until something gives (perhaps even Western interference) and one side comes out on top. For a while.

Moments when government has undergone significant change in Russia have typically come at times of weakness - usually a new ruler, seen as weaker than the previous one (i.e. the last czar, Gorbachev). All the most tyrannical regimes have continued up until the death of the ruler - Stalin being possibly the worst, was not displaced until the moment he died, and possibly not even then as apparently close aides were too afraid of him to even behave as if he were dead, for fear it was a trick. So based on that, there is reason to believe that Putin's abuses will be tolerated until he dies, and at that point there will be a chance for a significant, undemocratic change in government.

As for Russia becoming an isolated backwater, I doubt it. Russia has significant industry, technology, education, and general infrastructure. And if they aren't completely brain-drained by now, they never will be. I think it is most likely they will continue on as they have - a semi-violent and mildly chaotic tinkering toward a more perfect authoritarianism - one which provides economic prosperity for everyone (not just oligarchs) and supports a large middle class in relative comfort.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents, and that's probably what it's worth.

This was really interesting! Thank you! So you really think people won't crack under Putin even if he's there another 20 years?

[Anonymous]

Russia will remain a pariah and mostly irrelevant country for several decades. I wouldn't be surprised if its borders shrink and the former Soviet States rise in autonomy and stature.

Ukraine will join NATO, but it will be paired with overtures from the West for a new Russian government to finally embrace western economics and culture, even if the political realities in the country remain on guard.

The Russian army is proving to be a paper tiger, which undermines a lot of power it has projected over the last 75 years.

[Anonymous]

They will align with China and the BRICs as a resource rich nuclear power behind a new reserve currency.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven't been really knowledgeable about Russian for almost 20 years, but I was before that. The only thing I know for sure about it is that Western media is consistently and remarkably misrepresents just about everything that happens there. There is a huge gap between reality and what we read.

Just for fun I'll make predictions anyway. First, Russia will not be democratic anytime soon, if ever. Russian people do not have a strong belief in the power of democracy, and are much more accepting - and approving - of authoritarianism.

However, in spite of a strong spirit of stoicism, they are also accepting of violence in support of political change, when an authoritarian regime has too long and too severely neglected people's basic needs - mostly economic (they are less concerned with western values of "freedom" and civil rights). Much of Russia's history looks to me like a tug-of-war between totalitarian rule of fear and threat of violent rebellion, perhaps even a spiral in which each one increases until something gives (perhaps even Western interference) and one side comes out on top. For a while.

Moments when government has undergone significant change in Russia have typically come at times of weakness - usually a new ruler, seen as weaker than the previous one (i.e. the last czar, Gorbachev). All the most tyrannical regimes have continued up until the death of the ruler - Stalin being possibly the worst, was not displaced until the moment he died, and possibly not even then as apparently close aides were too afraid of him to even behave as if he were dead, for fear it was a trick. So based on that, there is reason to believe that Putin's abuses will be tolerated until he dies, and at that point there will be a chance for a significant, undemocratic change in government.

As for Russia becoming an isolated backwater, I doubt it. Russia has significant industry, technology, education, and general infrastructure. And if they aren't completely brain-drained by now, they never will be. I think it is most likely they will continue on as they have - a semi-violent and mildly chaotic tinkering toward a more perfect authoritarianism - one which provides economic prosperity for everyone (not just oligarchs) and supports a large middle class in relative comfort.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents, and that's probably what it's worth.

This was really interesting! Thank you! So you really think people won't crack under Putin even if he's there another 20 years?

I'm not sure he will live that long, but I think there's a good chance they will either tolerate him or he will use enough force to keep them in check. Nevertheless, I subscribe to the old adage that "Anything can happen in Russia."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I haven't been really knowledgeable about Russian for almost 20 years, but I was before that. The only thing I know for sure about it is that Western media is consistently and remarkably misrepresents just about everything that happens there. There is a huge gap between reality and what we read.

Just for fun I'll make predictions anyway. First, Russia will not be democratic anytime soon, if ever. Russian people do not have a strong belief in the power of democracy, and are much more accepting - and approving - of authoritarianism.

However, in spite of a strong spirit of stoicism, they are also accepting of violence in support of political change, when an authoritarian regime has too long and too severely neglected people's basic needs - mostly economic (they are less concerned with western values of "freedom" and civil rights). Much of Russia's history looks to me like a tug-of-war between totalitarian rule of fear and threat of violent rebellion, perhaps even a spiral in which each one increases until something gives (perhaps even Western interference) and one side comes out on top. For a while.

Moments when government has undergone significant change in Russia have typically come at times of weakness - usually a new ruler, seen as weaker than the previous one (i.e. the last czar, Gorbachev). All the most tyrannical regimes have continued up until the death of the ruler - Stalin being possibly the worst, was not displaced until the moment he died, and possibly not even then as apparently close aides were too afraid of him to even behave as if he were dead, for fear it was a trick. So based on that, there is reason to believe that Putin's abuses will be tolerated until he dies, and at that point there will be a chance for a significant, undemocratic change in government.

As for Russia becoming an isolated backwater, I doubt it. Russia has significant industry, technology, education, and general infrastructure. And if they aren't completely brain-drained by now, they never will be. I think it is most likely they will continue on as they have - a semi-violent and mildly chaotic tinkering toward a more perfect authoritarianism - one which provides economic prosperity for everyone (not just oligarchs) and supports a large middle class in relative comfort.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents, and that's probably what it's worth.

This was really interesting! Thank you! So you really think people won't crack under Putin even if he's there another 20 years?

Think about the fact that there is now an entire generation of young adults in Russia who have never known a leader other than Putin. Also, think about the fact that over the last 10 years or more, Putin has systematically regained complete control of Russian media and suppressed outside media to the point where his propaganda machine is the only "truth" many of them know.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Given their demographics and economy, they will be a quiet, irrelevant, but well-off backwater once Putin kicks it.

With 15,600 nuclear warheads.


Sure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A hermit kingdom, like North Korea, but with far better weapons and resources, exporting weapons to bad actors around the world.

It would have more money if other nations like China and India keep buying its oil. The country will be an international pariah, trading only with China and India and a few other odd states like Equatorial Guinea and North Korea. Its military seems ill-equipped, gutted by corruption. Putin and the oligarchs stole most of the country's money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They will align with China and the BRICs as a resource rich nuclear power behind a new reserve currency.

The energy policies of global warmers have Russia making lots of money from its energy reserves, including selling to lots of developing countries.
The foreign policy of hating Israel by the West will have Russia getting lots of support from Israel, as is happening right now with regards to Ukraine.
Russia has both Iran and Israel on its side.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A hermit kingdom, like North Korea, but with far better weapons and resources, exporting weapons to bad actors around the world.

It would have more money if other nations like China and India keep buying its oil. The country will be an international pariah, trading only with China and India and a few other odd states like Equatorial Guinea and North Korea. Its military seems ill-equipped, gutted by corruption. Putin and the oligarchs stole most of the country's money.

So far, Asia, LAC and Africa is happy to do business with them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They will align with China and the BRICs as a resource rich nuclear power behind a new reserve currency.

In other words, they will sell themselves out to China and become China's puppet, because "fck the West."

Brilliant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will align with China and the BRICs as a resource rich nuclear power behind a new reserve currency.

The energy policies of global warmers have Russia making lots of money from its energy reserves, including selling to lots of developing countries.
The foreign policy of hating Israel by the West will have Russia getting lots of support from Israel, as is happening right now with regards to Ukraine.
Russia has both Iran and Israel on its side.

This is not a thing.

But that said, bear in mind that Israel is entirely propped up by the West. If Israeli leadership wants to embrace Russia and sever ties with the West they will be in for a bit of a shock.