The future of Russia. Any foreign policy experts want to weigh in?

[Anonymous]

The war will likely “end” in a stalemate with Russia retaining de facto control of at least some of Ukraine. When Putin dies, it’s likely he’ll be replaced by another ant-west authoritarian. After a couple of decades of “proud” stagnation, the next generation will demand lifestyles closer to what they see in the West and the hardliners will allow a puppet reformer to be “elected” to throw them a bone.

After that point, things could go either way. After a taste of of Western lifestyle kids could demand more, leading to more West-friendly reform. Or reactionaries could replace the puppet with another authoritarian to lock things down again.

[Anonymous]

One thing I know is that the loudest voices are devoutly anti-Western and take pride in their independence from so-called “globalists” in as similar way as the QAnon Qrazies did here. But often this gets pushback from ththe general public and the more you demonize the West, the more they want the freedoms that the West offers. But then again, western media may be cherry-picking dissenters and making them seem more prominent. Normie Russians probably just want to pay for food and rent and maybe not die in a war.

It would be interesting to compare and contrast the Russian youth with the Iranian youth in how they really feel about their government vs the West.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Given their demographics and economy, they will be a quiet, irrelevant, but well-off backwater once Putin kicks it.

With 15,600 nuclear warheads.


Sure.

These things are incredibly cost and labor expensive to maintain, and the last year has shown us that Russian grift has really gutted their military. I wonder how many warheads are in any state of operational readiness.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

WWIII is the main concern for most people who haven't lost their marbles. At this point being so close to targeted objects wouldn't give me much comfort, so I am surprised how few in DC metro are afraid of this scenario. What becomes of the other half of the world (while very important) isn't nearly as relevant as trying to figure out where one must escape during Nuclear attack and subsequent fallout. And it may not be nuclear, there are chemical/bio weapons that can completely destroy continents. A deadlier pandemic with the virus with 80% mortality rate will wipe out not only most people but entire infrastructure and leaving only hellscape behind that none of you would want to live in and where the living will envy the dead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I haven't been really knowledgeable about Russian for almost 20 years, but I was before that. The only thing I know for sure about it is that Western media is consistently and remarkably misrepresents just about everything that happens there. There is a huge gap between reality and what we read.

Just for fun I'll make predictions anyway. First, Russia will not be democratic anytime soon, if ever. Russian people do not have a strong belief in the power of democracy, and are much more accepting - and approving - of authoritarianism.

However, in spite of a strong spirit of stoicism, they are also accepting of violence in support of political change, when an authoritarian regime has too long and too severely neglected people's basic needs - mostly economic (they are less concerned with western values of "freedom" and civil rights). Much of Russia's history looks to me like a tug-of-war between totalitarian rule of fear and threat of violent rebellion, perhaps even a spiral in which each one increases until something gives (perhaps even Western interference) and one side comes out on top. For a while.

Moments when government has undergone significant change in Russia have typically come at times of weakness - usually a new ruler, seen as weaker than the previous one (i.e. the last czar, Gorbachev). All the most tyrannical regimes have continued up until the death of the ruler - Stalin being possibly the worst, was not displaced until the moment he died, and possibly not even then as apparently close aides were too afraid of him to even behave as if he were dead, for fear it was a trick. So based on that, there is reason to believe that Putin's abuses will be tolerated until he dies, and at that point there will be a chance for a significant, undemocratic change in government.

As for Russia becoming an isolated backwater, I doubt it. Russia has significant industry, technology, education, and general infrastructure. And if they aren't completely brain-drained by now, they never will be. I think it is most likely they will continue on as they have - a semi-violent and mildly chaotic tinkering toward a more perfect authoritarianism - one which provides economic prosperity for everyone (not just oligarchs) and supports a large middle class in relative comfort.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents, and that's probably what it's worth.

Wait, isn't it kind of like.... China? So Russia is leaning towards similar regime as China, do you think they'd join forces and form a stronger alliance?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Given their demographics and economy, they will be a quiet, irrelevant, but well-off backwater once Putin kicks it.

With 15,600 nuclear warheads.


Sure.

These things are incredibly cost and labor expensive to maintain, and the last year has shown us that Russian grift has really gutted their military. I wonder how many warheads are in any state of operational readiness.

Agree.

In Ukraine we saw that even $15 million dollar Russian Pantsir air defense systems were horrendously undermaintained. Their $65 million dollar Su-35 fighters literally have commercial GPS units taped to the dashboard.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

WWIII is the main concern for most people who haven't lost their marbles. At this point being so close to targeted objects wouldn't give me much comfort, so I am surprised how few in DC metro are afraid of this scenario. What becomes of the other half of the world (while very important) isn't nearly as relevant as trying to figure out where one must escape during Nuclear attack and subsequent fallout. And it may not be nuclear, there are chemical/bio weapons that can completely destroy continents. A deadlier pandemic with the virus with 80% mortality rate will wipe out not only most people but entire infrastructure and leaving only hellscape behind that none of you would want to live in and where the living will envy the dead.

If DC gets hit with a nuke I get vaporized. It is what it is. Doesn't keep me up at night.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The war will likely “end” in a stalemate with Russia retaining de facto control of at least some of Ukraine. When Putin dies, it’s likely he’ll be replaced by another ant-west authoritarian. After a couple of decades of “proud” stagnation, the next generation will demand lifestyles closer to what they see in the West and the hardliners will allow a puppet reformer to be “elected” to throw them a bone.

After that point, things could go either way. After a taste of of Western lifestyle kids could demand more, leading to more West-friendly reform. Or reactionaries could replace the puppet with another authoritarian to lock things down again.

Russia already had a taste of Western lifestyle, Soviet Union fell apart 30 years ago. The country opened up and western companies opened their outlets there, Russians started travelling the world and not on budget either. When we travelled to Spain we learned that a lot of RE in the popular beach towns is owned by Russians, it was actually crazy to see some of their culture penetrate there, one of the towns in coastal Spain had some sort of Russian dance school do a concert for the tourists.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

WWIII is the main concern for most people who haven't lost their marbles. At this point being so close to targeted objects wouldn't give me much comfort, so I am surprised how few in DC metro are afraid of this scenario. What becomes of the other half of the world (while very important) isn't nearly as relevant as trying to figure out where one must escape during Nuclear attack and subsequent fallout. And it may not be nuclear, there are chemical/bio weapons that can completely destroy continents. A deadlier pandemic with the virus with 80% mortality rate will wipe out not only most people but entire infrastructure and leaving only hellscape behind that none of you would want to live in and where the living will envy the dead.

If DC gets hit with a nuke I get vaporized. It is what it is. Doesn't keep me up at night.

Makes sense, we are so close that we will get vaporized and probably feel nothing. We also will be the envy of those who would survive and die of injuries in extreme pain or have gradual demise from slower radiation poisoning, or have to deal with the horrors of survival in the post apocalyptic hellscape.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

WWIII is the main concern for most people who haven't lost their marbles. At this point being so close to targeted objects wouldn't give me much comfort, so I am surprised how few in DC metro are afraid of this scenario. What becomes of the other half of the world (while very important) isn't nearly as relevant as trying to figure out where one must escape during Nuclear attack and subsequent fallout. And it may not be nuclear, there are chemical/bio weapons that can completely destroy continents. A deadlier pandemic with the virus with 80% mortality rate will wipe out not only most people but entire infrastructure and leaving only hellscape behind that none of you would want to live in and where the living will envy the dead.

If DC gets hit with a nuke I get vaporized. It is what it is. Doesn't keep me up at night.

Makes sense, we are so close that we will get vaporized and probably feel nothing. We also will be the envy of those who would survive and die of injuries in extreme pain or have gradual demise from slower radiation poisoning, or have to deal with the horrors of survival in the post apocalyptic hellscape.

There are different types of warfare that can make life a living hell, it's unlikely cities will be vaporized. Obviously we won't be having Russian troops deploy to our shores. They can attack us in much more insidious ways, but I seriously doubt they'd be dropping nukes on our major cities unless they want their entire country vaporized. Still being around major metro areas like DC or NYC or SF doesn't give me comfort.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

WWIII is the main concern for most people who haven't lost their marbles. At this point being so close to targeted objects wouldn't give me much comfort, so I am surprised how few in DC metro are afraid of this scenario. What becomes of the other half of the world (while very important) isn't nearly as relevant as trying to figure out where one must escape during Nuclear attack and subsequent fallout. And it may not be nuclear, there are chemical/bio weapons that can completely destroy continents. A deadlier pandemic with the virus with 80% mortality rate will wipe out not only most people but entire infrastructure and leaving only hellscape behind that none of you would want to live in and where the living will envy the dead.

If DC gets hit with a nuke I get vaporized. It is what it is. Doesn't keep me up at night.

Makes sense, we are so close that we will get vaporized and probably feel nothing. We also will be the envy of those who would survive and die of injuries in extreme pain or have gradual demise from slower radiation poisoning, or have to deal with the horrors of survival in the post apocalyptic hellscape.

There are different types of warfare that can make life a living hell, it's unlikely cities will be vaporized. Obviously we won't be having Russian troops deploy to our shores. They can attack us in much more insidious ways, but I seriously doubt they'd be dropping nukes on our major cities unless they want their entire country vaporized. Still being around major metro areas like DC or NYC or SF doesn't give me comfort.

Russia is totally incompetent. They do not have the ability to attack the US.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war will likely “end” in a stalemate with Russia retaining de facto control of at least some of Ukraine. When Putin dies, it’s likely he’ll be replaced by another ant-west authoritarian. After a couple of decades of “proud” stagnation, the next generation will demand lifestyles closer to what they see in the West and the hardliners will allow a puppet reformer to be “elected” to throw them a bone.

After that point, things could go either way. After a taste of of Western lifestyle kids could demand more, leading to more West-friendly reform. Or reactionaries could replace the puppet with another authoritarian to lock things down again.

Russia already had a taste of Western lifestyle, Soviet Union fell apart 30 years ago. The country opened up and western companies opened their outlets there, Russians started travelling the world and not on budget either. When we travelled to Spain we learned that a lot of RE in the popular beach towns is owned by Russians, it was actually crazy to see some of their culture penetrate there, one of the towns in coastal Spain had some sort of Russian dance school do a concert for the tourists.

I dunno why you think it's crazy. It's pretty common that cultural institutions follow the diaspora communities. I'm pretty plugged into the Russian-speaking community in the DMV area and they've built a rather sophisticated environment with several language weekend schools, a private K-3 school, Russian-language art, theatre, ballet, gymnastics, figure skating, chess, math clubs etc. I imagine it's the same in any European country with a strong diaspora interested in preserving their culture and language.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war will likely “end” in a stalemate with Russia retaining de facto control of at least some of Ukraine. When Putin dies, it’s likely he’ll be replaced by another ant-west authoritarian. After a couple of decades of “proud” stagnation, the next generation will demand lifestyles closer to what they see in the West and the hardliners will allow a puppet reformer to be “elected” to throw them a bone.

After that point, things could go either way. After a taste of of Western lifestyle kids could demand more, leading to more West-friendly reform. Or reactionaries could replace the puppet with another authoritarian to lock things down again.

Russia already had a taste of Western lifestyle, Soviet Union fell apart 30 years ago. The country opened up and western companies opened their outlets there, Russians started travelling the world and not on budget either. When we travelled to Spain we learned that a lot of RE in the popular beach towns is owned by Russians, it was actually crazy to see some of their culture penetrate there, one of the towns in coastal Spain had some sort of Russian dance school do a concert for the tourists.

I dunno why you think it's crazy. It's pretty common that cultural institutions follow the diaspora communities. I'm pretty plugged into the Russian-speaking community in the DMV area and they've built a rather sophisticated environment with several language weekend schools, a private K-3 school, Russian-language art, theatre, ballet, gymnastics, figure skating, chess, math clubs etc. I imagine it's the same in any European country with a strong diaspora interested in preserving their culture and language.

I didn't get a feeling that this was an immigrant community, it seems like it was a community of of vacationers or those owning vacation properties but not living there necessarily. You are talking about immigrant community, which in the USA includes people who came over the decades from Soviet Union's various parts, some of which are now their own countries, but they still speak the same language, have same culture, etc. I am referring to those who started travelling the world when iron curtain fell and those who apparently had enough money to do so, majority of them are not oligarchs. If you travel around the world in this century you would notice an increase in Russian tourists everywhere, Europe, China, Americas. It's like every resort town would have Russian speaking tourists. It seemed to me like the floodgates opened and people from Russia started traveling all over the world where they weren't seen before, it also implies that their standard of living must have sufficiently increased to provide ability to travel, and that strong enough middle class layer emerged that could enjoy disposable income to do so. IDK, tell me I am wrong.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

WWIII is the main concern for most people who haven't lost their marbles. At this point being so close to targeted objects wouldn't give me much comfort, so I am surprised how few in DC metro are afraid of this scenario. What becomes of the other half of the world (while very important) isn't nearly as relevant as trying to figure out where one must escape during Nuclear attack and subsequent fallout. And it may not be nuclear, there are chemical/bio weapons that can completely destroy continents. A deadlier pandemic with the virus with 80% mortality rate will wipe out not only most people but entire infrastructure and leaving only hellscape behind that none of you would want to live in and where the living will envy the dead.

If DC gets hit with a nuke I get vaporized. It is what it is. Doesn't keep me up at night.

Makes sense, we are so close that we will get vaporized and probably feel nothing. We also will be the envy of those who would survive and die of injuries in extreme pain or have gradual demise from slower radiation poisoning, or have to deal with the horrors of survival in the post apocalyptic hellscape.

There are different types of warfare that can make life a living hell, it's unlikely cities will be vaporized. Obviously we won't be having Russian troops deploy to our shores. They can attack us in much more insidious ways, but I seriously doubt they'd be dropping nukes on our major cities unless they want their entire country vaporized. Still being around major metro areas like DC or NYC or SF doesn't give me comfort.

Their vaunted cyber warriors have been relegated to hijacking URLs. They were supposed to cripple Ukrainian communications at the onset of the war and got nowhere

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly will not accept a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died?
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok)
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, not including World War Three. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

WWIII is the main concern for most people who haven't lost their marbles. At this point being so close to targeted objects wouldn't give me much comfort, so I am surprised how few in DC metro are afraid of this scenario. What becomes of the other half of the world (while very important) isn't nearly as relevant as trying to figure out where one must escape during Nuclear attack and subsequent fallout. And it may not be nuclear, there are chemical/bio weapons that can completely destroy continents. A deadlier pandemic with the virus with 80% mortality rate will wipe out not only most people but entire infrastructure and leaving only hellscape behind that none of you would want to live in and where the living will envy the dead.

If DC gets hit with a nuke I get vaporized. It is what it is. Doesn't keep me up at night.

Makes sense, we are so close that we will get vaporized and probably feel nothing. We also will be the envy of those who would survive and die of injuries in extreme pain or have gradual demise from slower radiation poisoning, or have to deal with the horrors of survival in the post apocalyptic hellscape.

There are different types of warfare that can make life a living hell, it's unlikely cities will be vaporized. Obviously we won't be having Russian troops deploy to our shores. They can attack us in much more insidious ways, but I seriously doubt they'd be dropping nukes on our major cities unless they want their entire country vaporized. Still being around major metro areas like DC or NYC or SF doesn't give me comfort.

Russia is totally incompetent. They do not have the ability to attack the US.

I hope you are right