Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine had better watch out for encirclement of its elite battalions on its eastern flank!


BBC News -

The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.

The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its "special military operation" - one covering the whole of Ukraine and one focusing on the Donbas.

The comments - carried by Russian state news agencies - hinted at a possible downgrading of Russia's war aims. Russian forces have met strong resistance in the north of Ukraine and around Kyiv.

Sergey Rudskoy, head of the main operational department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said 93% of Luhansk oblast and 54% of Donetsk oblast was under Russian control.

Russia had destroyed the vast majority of Ukraine's air force and navy, and this marked the successful end of the first phase of the conflict, he added.

However, the defence ministry did not rule out storming Ukrainian cities that had been blockaded and said Russia would react immediately to any move to close airspace over Ukraine - something President Zelensky has repeatedly urged.

The ministry also said Russia would continue its invasion until targets set by Putin had been achieved, Ria news agency reported, without specifying what the targets were.

Lol the Russians have lost Kherson and are re-deploy troops from Georgia. If the troops leave Georgia those people will revolt. The Russians are getting their ass kicked in. Their combat units are broke and can not attack or defend. This could be a total defeat with the lose of all units in Ukraine. The Russia empire is very close to open revolt.

Don't laugh.

Encirclement of Ukraine's most experienced and competent troops in Donbas was always a risk. It's been talked about since the beginning of the invasion, when the Russians sent troops from the north and south to meet in the middle. For weeks they've been stretched thin, overly optimistic that they could do everything at once, but now sense has come back to them, and they realize they'll need to do it piece-meal. It's an acknowledgement that their original plan failed, certainly, but it's a strategy that makes sense, and Russian troops are still very dangerous if they regroup to cut off Donbas from the rest of Ukraine, and thus put out of action entire battalions of top Ukrainian troops.

I repeat. Do not be complacent! This is stage two of what could be a long war. We need to continue to send all the weapons and stuff Ukraine needs, and continue to intimidate/persuade Russian would-be allies that they don't want to be associated with a loser, and lose big themselves...

Your military analysis is an outlier. Every military expert is saying the opposite of what you are saying. It is the Russians who have exposed supply lines and are endangered of encirclement. Do you know the size of a Ukrainian battalion? The Russian combat units committed to this phase are spent. Russia needs to bring in a new army to fight.

Sorry, every military expert is NOT saying the opposite. The media is portraying a few experienced analysts and ex-military who are a bit more upbeat than before, and the west is making much of the Russian's terrible organization and preparedness, and I agree that there is reason to be cautiously optimistic. But not complacent. Just today, Russian troops made a little more progress in cutting off Donbas. There are troop and material reserves in Belarus, and now some troops from Georgia and Kyrgyzstan will be transferred.

It's very important to stay vigilant. Russia can yet out-maneuver Ukraine. Keep up the pressure.

[Anonymous]

Will the russians now use chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine? It’s always been the russian’s fetish to turn Kyiv to atomic dust.

[Anonymous]

Will the russians now use chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine? It’s always been the russian’s fetish to turn Kyiv to atomic dust.

Link? I have actually read the opposite . . . that Russian school children read about the importance of Kyiv in the history of Russia.

[Anonymous]

Russian defense minister had a heart attack, according to Ukrainians. They claim he had a heart attack when accused by Putin of failing to secure a rapid win in Ukraine.

BBC live - https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60856533

Russian defence minister 'suffers heart attack'

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister, has claimed that Russia's defence minister suffered a heart attack.

Sergei Shoigu had not been seen publicly since 11 March, until he appeared briefly in a video released by Putin on Thursday 24 March.

"Shoigu's heart attack happened after a tough accusation by Putin for a complete failure of the invasion of Ukraine," Gerashchenko wrote on Facebook, adding that he is currently "undergoing rehabilitation" in hospital.

There has been no confirmation from Russia of Shoigu's alleged health problems.

[Anonymous]

This is really embarrassing for Russia and Putin. I feel like the US would have bombed everything in the first week or two then just overrun the place. I guess it pays to have the best military in the world with 13,500 aircraft.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Will the russians now use chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine? It’s always been the russian’s fetish to turn Kyiv to atomic dust.

Not Kyiv, but the US. Watch that news program hosted by their top propagandist Kiselev, starts at 0:40:
https://youtu.be/EkMT_oLempE

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Will the russians now use chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine? It’s always been the russian’s fetish to turn Kyiv to atomic dust.

Not Kyiv, but the US. Watch that news program hosted by their top propagandist Kiselev, starts at 0:40:
https://youtu.be/EkMT_oLempE

They won’t do it to the US, the US will retaliate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is really embarrassing for Russia and Putin. I feel like the US would have bombed everything in the first week or two then just overrun the place. I guess it pays to have the best military in the world with 13,500 aircraft.

I just hope that the US wouldn’t invade Canada or Mexico to “denazify””demilitarize” and “decanadize / de-mexiconize” their neighbor.

[Anonymous]

Intercepted radio from Russian troops (New York Times)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine had better watch out for encirclement of its elite battalions on its eastern flank!


BBC News -

The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.

The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its "special military operation" - one covering the whole of Ukraine and one focusing on the Donbas.

The comments - carried by Russian state news agencies - hinted at a possible downgrading of Russia's war aims. Russian forces have met strong resistance in the north of Ukraine and around Kyiv.

Sergey Rudskoy, head of the main operational department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said 93% of Luhansk oblast and 54% of Donetsk oblast was under Russian control.

Russia had destroyed the vast majority of Ukraine's air force and navy, and this marked the successful end of the first phase of the conflict, he added.

However, the defence ministry did not rule out storming Ukrainian cities that had been blockaded and said Russia would react immediately to any move to close airspace over Ukraine - something President Zelensky has repeatedly urged.

The ministry also said Russia would continue its invasion until targets set by Putin had been achieved, Ria news agency reported, without specifying what the targets were.

Lol the Russians have lost Kherson and are re-deploy troops from Georgia. If the troops leave Georgia those people will revolt. The Russians are getting their ass kicked in. Their combat units are broke and can not attack or defend. This could be a total defeat with the lose of all units in Ukraine. The Russia empire is very close to open revolt.

Don't laugh.

Encirclement of Ukraine's most experienced and competent troops in Donbas was always a risk. It's been talked about since the beginning of the invasion, when the Russians sent troops from the north and south to meet in the middle. For weeks they've been stretched thin, overly optimistic that they could do everything at once, but now sense has come back to them, and they realize they'll need to do it piece-meal. It's an acknowledgement that their original plan failed, certainly, but it's a strategy that makes sense, and Russian troops are still very dangerous if they regroup to cut off Donbas from the rest of Ukraine, and thus put out of action entire battalions of top Ukrainian troops.

I repeat. Do not be complacent! This is stage two of what could be a long war. We need to continue to send all the weapons and stuff Ukraine needs, and continue to intimidate/persuade Russian would-be allies that they don't want to be associated with a loser, and lose big themselves...

Your military analysis is an outlier. Every military expert is saying the opposite of what you are saying. It is the Russians who have exposed supply lines and are endangered of encirclement. Do you know the size of a Ukrainian battalion? The Russian combat units committed to this phase are spent. Russia needs to bring in a new army to fight.

Sorry, every military expert is NOT saying the opposite. The media is portraying a few experienced analysts and ex-military who are a bit more upbeat than before, and the west is making much of the Russian's terrible organization and preparedness, and I agree that there is reason to be cautiously optimistic. But not complacent. Just today, Russian troops made a little more progress in cutting off Donbas. There are troop and material reserves in Belarus, and now some troops from Georgia and Kyrgyzstan will be transferred.

It's very important to stay vigilant. Russia can yet out-maneuver Ukraine. Keep up the pressure.

No offense but you do not seem to know what you are talking about. Ukraine has taken back the one city they lost to the Russians. This means the Russians have not captured any cities in the Ukraine. Those ex-generals appearing on TV actually have a lot more information vs what you think you know. Russia is not capable of make large armor maneuvers. They are redeploying troops and their equipment from other parts of Russia. It will be very challenging for them.

[Anonymous]

^^ oh and Ukraine now has more tanks vs before the invasion because they have captured some many Russians tanks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine had better watch out for encirclement of its elite battalions on its eastern flank!


BBC News -

The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.

The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its "special military operation" - one covering the whole of Ukraine and one focusing on the Donbas.

The comments - carried by Russian state news agencies - hinted at a possible downgrading of Russia's war aims. Russian forces have met strong resistance in the north of Ukraine and around Kyiv.

Sergey Rudskoy, head of the main operational department of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said 93% of Luhansk oblast and 54% of Donetsk oblast was under Russian control.

Russia had destroyed the vast majority of Ukraine's air force and navy, and this marked the successful end of the first phase of the conflict, he added.

However, the defence ministry did not rule out storming Ukrainian cities that had been blockaded and said Russia would react immediately to any move to close airspace over Ukraine - something President Zelensky has repeatedly urged.

The ministry also said Russia would continue its invasion until targets set by Putin had been achieved, Ria news agency reported, without specifying what the targets were.

Lol the Russians have lost Kherson and are re-deploy troops from Georgia. If the troops leave Georgia those people will revolt. The Russians are getting their ass kicked in. Their combat units are broke and can not attack or defend. This could be a total defeat with the lose of all units in Ukraine. The Russia empire is very close to open revolt.

Don't laugh.

Encirclement of Ukraine's most experienced and competent troops in Donbas was always a risk. It's been talked about since the beginning of the invasion, when the Russians sent troops from the north and south to meet in the middle. For weeks they've been stretched thin, overly optimistic that they could do everything at once, but now sense has come back to them, and they realize they'll need to do it piece-meal. It's an acknowledgement that their original plan failed, certainly, but it's a strategy that makes sense, and Russian troops are still very dangerous if they regroup to cut off Donbas from the rest of Ukraine, and thus put out of action entire battalions of top Ukrainian troops.

I repeat. Do not be complacent! This is stage two of what could be a long war. We need to continue to send all the weapons and stuff Ukraine needs, and continue to intimidate/persuade Russian would-be allies that they don't want to be associated with a loser, and lose big themselves...

ITA. There are still many things that can go wrong. Complacency is always a mistake during wartime.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Will the russians now use chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine? It’s always been the russian’s fetish to turn Kyiv to atomic dust.

Not Kyiv, but the US. Watch that news program hosted by their top propagandist Kiselev, starts at 0:40:
https://youtu.be/EkMT_oLempE

Propogandists should be viewed with a grain of salt

[Anonymous]

One prediction seems quite plausible here: that Ukraine is not about to negotiate a favorable deal with Russia at this point. I think they can kick them out and deliver an embarrassment to Putin. Yesterday the Russians announced they changed to Plan/Step B in a news conference. Russia just wants to secure the SE of Ukraine. I think that Putin is going to have to move to Plan C quickly since Plan B seems to destined for failure.

What is Plan C? I think Putin is going to announce that he has gotten rid of the "nazi's"; Punished the Ukraine government/military, removing any threat; and removed the threat of Ukraine joining NATO. Now the people of Donbas canary to take the matters in their own hands, just needing supplies from Russia. Russia will be concluding our "Special Military Operation" and bringing our forces home. Basically he can say he succeeded (ignoring reality) and regroup. I am guessing this will happen in the next 2 weeks.

If he does this I think the West (Germany and the US) will go along with the gag and slowly ease the sanctions and in 6 months everyone will have forgot about this horror - except for the poor people in Ukraine who have died and the remainder who have to rebuild.

[Anonymous]

^^Interesting and I hope you are right