Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Looks like not all the western military systems that are making their way to the Ukraine are being talked about in the press. Waiting for the anti ship missiles to start taking their toll.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

I was just about to type this question and I believe STAMs are in fact being sent. But my questions still stands, why did it take so long!?

Why aren’t all NATO countries in support of supplying Ukraine with surface-to-air missile systems and radar systems that detect the location of incoming missiles so they can intercept? Russia can just unload on Ukraine and we’re stonewalling their interception?

Also, Ukrainian pilots are in Poland. Why can’t they stage a “coup” like scenario allowing the pilots to seize the migs and fly them to Ukraine taking down Russians along the way? I mean at this point Russian pilots don’t have to make any effort to pummel Ukraine willy nilly.

[Anonymous]

These are all great efforts, but I question if they will change the end game. I would like to believe so, but I’m afraid not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:These are all great efforts, but I question if they will change the end game. I would like to believe so, but I’m afraid not.

Hope I’m wrong

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Granted, I’m a little behind but just listened to a Frontline podcast with Julia Ioffe. She feels that Putin’s inner circle circle has shrunk to only a few advisors who may be crazier than Putin is. She feels he will not stop until he has ground Ukraine “to a fine dust”.

His inner circle has been shrinking for several years, and he has always had advisors who are crazier than him.

I think it's long past time that we stopped calling them crazy. They're just stupid. Crazy gives them too much credit. They're actually thinking this through and planning these fiascos. It's all been intentional. They're just stupid.

I don't think Putin is crazy. Just watch some of his interviews, such as this one a few years ago with Charlie Rose:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l69tRETnlo&t=2388s

He is alert, focused, and logical, and seems more on-the-ball than many of our own leaders.

I think his reasoning approach with respect to Ukraine is as follows:

1. He doesn't believe that NATO is purely a defensive organization. He thinks that NATO -- or the United States -- would like to topple his regime. He has seen the United States topple regimes in several countries, he believes that we may have played a hand in the 2014 revolution in Ukraine.

2. He recognizes that Ukraine is rapidly coming under the influence of the West, both economically and militarily. On Nov 10, 2021, the US and Ukraine signed a strategic partnership that will increase the flow of military support to Ukraine.

3. On the current trajectory, Putin believes that Ukraine will indeed become part of NATO, perhaps 5 to 10 years down the road.

4. Based on points 1, 2 and 3, Putin feels backed into a corner. Unless he does something, Russia will soon be encircled by NATO countries.

5. Given that Ukraine has been improving its military with help from the West, Putin feels that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing for Russia to push back against NATO, and ensure that Ukraine remains outside of NATO.

6. Based on all of the facts/assumptions above, he decided that an invasion was necessary for his regime's long-term survival. He views this invasion as a form of pro-active defense, as opposed to a purely offensive move designed solely to expand Russia's territory. I doubt he wants to absorb Ukraine into Russia; rather, he simply wants to make sure it remains outside of NATO's grasp.

Of course, I'm speculating. None of us can read Putin's mind. But in his interviews he is always quite lucid and calm -- never emotion -- always under control. And time and time again he has stressed that the Russian government views Ukraine's potential accession into NATO as a red line. Russia cannot accept NATO membership for Ukraine. They view this accession as a security risk, recognizing that many "defensive" weapon systems can also be used for offense.

I don't think we are dealing with a mad-man. I think we are dealing with somebody who truly believes (rightly or wrongly) that Russia's long-term survival is at stake, and is willing to do whatever is necessary to keep NATO's paws off of Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

The S-300 missile system (a Russian system) is possessed and used by Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Greece.

The Ukrainians are trained and familiar with it.

Those 3 countries need to immediately transfer some of their S-300s to western Ukraine.

Do not wait for “NATO approval.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Granted, I’m a little behind but just listened to a Frontline podcast with Julia Ioffe. She feels that Putin’s inner circle circle has shrunk to only a few advisors who may be crazier than Putin is. She feels he will not stop until he has ground Ukraine “to a fine dust”.

His inner circle has been shrinking for several years, and he has always had advisors who are crazier than him.

I think it's long past time that we stopped calling them crazy. They're just stupid. Crazy gives them too much credit. They're actually thinking this through and planning these fiascos. It's all been intentional. They're just stupid.

I don't think Putin is crazy. Just watch some of his interviews, such as this one a few years ago with Charlie Rose:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l69tRETnlo&t=2388s

He is alert, focused, and logical, and seems more on-the-ball than many of our own leaders.

I think his reasoning approach with respect to Ukraine is as follows:

1. He doesn't believe that NATO is purely a defensive organization. He thinks that NATO -- or the United States -- would like to topple his regime. He has seen the United States topple regimes in several countries, he believes that we may have played a hand in the 2014 revolution in Ukraine.

2. He recognizes that Ukraine is rapidly coming under the influence of the West, both economically and militarily. On Nov 10, 2021, the US and Ukraine signed a strategic partnership that will increase the flow of military support to Ukraine.

3. On the current trajectory, Putin believes that Ukraine will indeed become part of NATO, perhaps 5 to 10 years down the road.

4. Based on points 1, 2 and 3, Putin feels backed into a corner. Unless he does something, Russia will soon be encircled by NATO countries.

5. Given that Ukraine has been improving its military with help from the West, Putin feels that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing for Russia to push back against NATO, and ensure that Ukraine remains outside of NATO.

6. Based on all of the facts/assumptions above, he decided that an invasion was necessary for his regime's long-term survival. He views this invasion as a form of pro-active defense, as opposed to a purely offensive move designed solely to expand Russia's territory. I doubt he wants to absorb Ukraine into Russia; rather, he simply wants to make sure it remains outside of NATO's grasp.

Of course, I'm speculating. None of us can read Putin's mind. But in his interviews he is always quite lucid and calm -- never emotion -- always under control. And time and time again he has stressed that the Russian government views Ukraine's potential accession into NATO as a red line. Russia cannot accept NATO membership for Ukraine. They view this accession as a security risk, recognizing that many "defensive" weapon systems can also be used for offense.

I don't think we are dealing with a mad-man. I think we are dealing with somebody who truly believes (rightly or wrongly) that Russia's long-term survival is at stake, and is willing to do whatever is necessary to keep NATO's paws off of Ukraine.

Yes, this is a spot-on summary of Putin’s mentality. Kudos!

[Anonymous]

There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Granted, I’m a little behind but just listened to a Frontline podcast with Julia Ioffe. She feels that Putin’s inner circle circle has shrunk to only a few advisors who may be crazier than Putin is. She feels he will not stop until he has ground Ukraine “to a fine dust”.

His inner circle has been shrinking for several years, and he has always had advisors who are crazier than him.

I think it's long past time that we stopped calling them crazy. They're just stupid. Crazy gives them too much credit. They're actually thinking this through and planning these fiascos. It's all been intentional. They're just stupid.

I don't think Putin is crazy. Just watch some of his interviews, such as this one a few years ago with Charlie Rose:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l69tRETnlo&t=2388s

He is alert, focused, and logical, and seems more on-the-ball than many of our own leaders.

I think his reasoning approach with respect to Ukraine is as follows:

1. He doesn't believe that NATO is purely a defensive organization. He thinks that NATO -- or the United States -- would like to topple his regime. He has seen the United States topple regimes in several countries, he believes that we may have played a hand in the 2014 revolution in Ukraine.

2. He recognizes that Ukraine is rapidly coming under the influence of the West, both economically and militarily. On Nov 10, 2021, the US and Ukraine signed a strategic partnership that will increase the flow of military support to Ukraine.

3. On the current trajectory, Putin believes that Ukraine will indeed become part of NATO, perhaps 5 to 10 years down the road.

4. Based on points 1, 2 and 3, Putin feels backed into a corner. Unless he does something, Russia will soon be encircled by NATO countries.

5. Given that Ukraine has been improving its military with help from the West, Putin feels that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing for Russia to push back against NATO, and ensure that Ukraine remains outside of NATO.

6. Based on all of the facts/assumptions above, he decided that an invasion was necessary for his regime's long-term survival. He views this invasion as a form of pro-active defense, as opposed to a purely offensive move designed solely to expand Russia's territory. I doubt he wants to absorb Ukraine into Russia; rather, he simply wants to make sure it remains outside of NATO's grasp.

Of course, I'm speculating. None of us can read Putin's mind. But in his interviews he is always quite lucid and calm -- never emotion -- always under control. And time and time again he has stressed that the Russian government views Ukraine's potential accession into NATO as a red line. Russia cannot accept NATO membership for Ukraine. They view this accession as a security risk, recognizing that many "defensive" weapon systems can also be used for offense.

I don't think we are dealing with a mad-man. I think we are dealing with somebody who truly believes (rightly or wrongly) that Russia's long-term survival is at stake, and is willing to do whatever is necessary to keep NATO's paws off of Ukraine.

I don't. I think he's nothing more than a stupid bully that got high on his own supply of propaganda, badly miscalculated, engineered the greatest humiliation in Russian history, and is flailing about desperately trying to convince the world that he's still wearing clothes.

[Anonymous]

I don't think Putin is crazy. Just watch some of his interviews, such as this one a few years ago with Charlie Rose:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l69tRETnlo&t=2392s

He is alert, focused, and logical, and seems more on-the-ball than many of our own leaders.

I think his reasoning approach with respect to Ukraine is as follows:

1. He doesn't believe that NATO is purely a defensive organization. He thinks that NATO -- or the United States -- would like to topple his regime. He has seen the United States topple regimes in several countries, he believes that we may have played a hand in the 2014 revolution in Ukraine.

2. He recognizes that Ukraine is rapidly coming under the influence of the West, both economically and militarily. On Nov 10, 2021, the US and Ukraine signed a strategic partnership that will increase the flow of military support to Ukraine.

3. On the current trajectory, Putin believes that Ukraine will indeed become part of NATO, perhaps 5 to 10 years down the road.

4. Based on points 1, 2 and 3, Putin feels backed into a corner. Unless he does something, Russia will soon be encircled by NATO countries.

5. Given that Ukraine has been improving its military with help from the West, Putin feels that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing for Russia to push back against NATO, and ensure that Ukraine remains outside of NATO.

6. Based on all of the facts/assumptions above, he decided that an invasion was necessary for his regime's long-term survival. He views this invasion as a form of pro-active defense, as opposed to a purely offensive move designed solely to expand Russia's territory. I doubt he wants to absorb Ukraine into Russia; rather, he simply wants to make sure it remains outside of NATO's grasp.

Of course, I'm speculating. None of us can read Putin's mind. But in his interviews he is always quite lucid and calm -- never emotion -- always under control. And time and time again he has stressed that the Russian government views Ukraine's potential accession into NATO as a red line. Russia cannot accept NATO membership for Ukraine. They view this accession as a security risk, recognizing that many "defensive" weapon systems can also be used for offense.

I don't think we are dealing with a mad-man. I think we are dealing with somebody who truly believes (rightly or wrongly) that Russia's long-term survival is at stake, and is willing to do whatever is necessary to keep NATO's paws off of Ukraine.

I don't. I think he's nothing more than a stupid bully that got high on his own supply of propaganda, badly miscalculated, engineered the greatest humiliation in Russian history, and is flailing about desperately trying to convince the world that he's still wearing clothes.

He may be a bully, but he isn't stupid.

Watch how cleverly he navigates Charlie Rose's questions. A person of low intelligence would not have this mental dexterity.

[Anonymous]

PP who thinks Putin is not mad…

… a lot of people who are “mad” are cold, calculating and logical. They push their logic to extremes, and that is never a good thing. If anyone believes slaughter of innocents is justified to prevent NATO expansion and threats on one’s own country, they are mad (cruel, immoral, unethical, wrong, etc) in the eyes of the world.

Moderation in all things.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
He may be a bully, but he isn't stupid.

Watch how cleverly he navigates Charlie Rose's questions. A person of low intelligence would not have this mental dexterity.

That interview was in 2015, before the pandemic, when Putin was in his early 60s rather than late 60s. He's changed since then.

[Anonymous]

This is a great article about Putin’s mentality: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-10/putin-gambler?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Putin%20the%20Gambler&utm_content=20220310&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017

It argues that Putin is not insane, but rather that he has taken increased risks since 2014 and that he has undoubtedly overestimated his chances of success in this invasion.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is a great article about Putin’s mentality: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-10/putin-gambler?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Putin%20the%20Gambler&utm_content=20220310&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017

It argues that Putin is not insane, but rather that he has taken increased risks since 2014 and that he has undoubtedly overestimated his chances of success in this invasion.

+1 and another: