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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Granted, I’m a little behind but just listened to  a Frontline podcast with Julia Ioffe. She feels that Putin’s inner circle circle has shrunk to only a few advisors who may be crazier than Putin is. She feels he will not stop until he has ground Ukraine “to a fine dust”.[/quote]

His inner circle has been shrinking for several years, and he has always had advisors who are crazier than him. [/quote]

I think it's long past time that we stopped calling them crazy.  They're just stupid.  Crazy gives them too much credit.  They're actually thinking this through and planning these fiascos.  It's all been intentional.  They're just stupid.[/quote]

I don't think Putin is crazy. Just watch some of his interviews, such as this one a few years ago with Charlie Rose:

[quote]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l69tRETnlo&t=2388s
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He is alert, focused, and logical, and seems more on-the-ball than many of our own leaders.

I think his reasoning approach with respect to Ukraine is as follows:

1. He doesn't believe that NATO is purely a defensive organization. He thinks that NATO -- or the United States -- would like to topple his regime. He has seen the United States topple regimes in several countries, he believes that we may have played a hand in the 2014 revolution in Ukraine.

2. He recognizes that Ukraine is rapidly coming under the influence of the West, both economically and militarily. On Nov 10, 2021, the US and Ukraine signed a strategic partnership that will increase the flow of military support to Ukraine.

3. On the current trajectory, Putin believes that Ukraine will indeed become part of NATO, perhaps 5 to 10 years down the road.

4. Based on points 1, 2 and 3, Putin feels backed into a corner. Unless he does something, Russia will soon be encircled by NATO countries.

5. Given that Ukraine has been improving its military with help from the West, Putin feels that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing for Russia to push back against NATO, and ensure that Ukraine remains outside of NATO.

6. Based on all of the facts/assumptions above, he decided that an invasion was necessary for his regime's long-term survival. He views this invasion as a form of pro-active defense, as opposed to a purely offensive move designed solely to expand Russia's territory. I doubt he wants to absorb Ukraine into Russia; rather, he simply wants to make sure it remains outside of NATO's grasp.

Of course, I'm speculating. None of us can read Putin's mind. But in his interviews he is always quite lucid and calm -- never emotion -- always under control. And time and time again he has stressed that the Russian government views Ukraine's potential accession into NATO as a red line. Russia cannot accept NATO membership for Ukraine. They view this accession as a security risk, recognizing that many "defensive" weapon systems can also be used for offense.

I don't think we are dealing with a mad-man. I think we are dealing with somebody who truly believes (rightly or wrongly) that Russia's long-term survival is at stake, and is willing to do whatever is necessary to keep NATO's paws off of Ukraine.[/quote]

I don't.  I think he's nothing more than a stupid bully that got high on his own supply of propaganda, badly miscalculated, engineered the greatest humiliation in Russian history, and is flailing about desperately trying to convince the world that he's still wearing clothes.
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