What is the End Game in Ukraine?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So what will be the response now that Russia announced the referendums to annex parts of Ukraine?

I don’t think that really matters. Ukraine has a legitimate claim to all of its territories including the Donbas.

Can Mexico annex Southern California?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So what will be the response now that Russia announced the referendums to annex parts of Ukraine?

The immediate response is Zelensky headlining the keynote slot tomorrow at the annual conference of the National Defense Industrial Association, no doubt, telling them that business looks bright and they will have lots of it.

As the Russian saying goes...."you have the goods, we have the buyer". (Typically said by the groom's parents to the bride's parents).

Exposing Zelenskyy’s elaborate plot to get Putin to invade and commit genocidal war crimes for the benefit of the defense industry. Brilliant.

Do you deny that this war has been very, very good to the defense industry?

DP: This war was designed and implemented by the US defense industry, no doubt about it. Did you read the Rand report leaked a couple days ago?

The US defense industry convinced Russia to invade a neighbor and launch a genocidal war of agression? That doesn't even make sense as a conspiracy theory.

They didn't convince Russia to invade, no.

But do you seriously think their lobby groups did not put pressure on Congress to buy and send more arms? Remember, it's war to you but it's business to them. Dollars and cents. Wars are good for business if you're Northrop Grumman. Depleted Pentagon stocks plus long term government contracts to meet aid obligations are excellent, excellent business.

Then the wat was neither designed nor implemented by the US defense indutry. Russia made a choice to invade. These are the consequences.

I never said it was designed nor implemented by the US defense industry. Just that the US defense industry has a financial interest in this war lasting as long as possible, and in the US sending Ukraine the weapons they make and sell. If the war stops, it's bad for business. Just like leaving vast volumes of munitions in Afghanistan, intact and in burn pits, was good for business because now they get to replace them.

It was not at all an automatic consequence. It was a choice the US made to send weapons.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So what will be the response now that Russia announced the referendums to annex parts of Ukraine?

I don’t think that really matters. Ukraine has a legitimate claim to all of its territories including the Donbas.

Can Mexico annex Southern California?

So you're saying South Sudan should never have been allowed to split?

[Anonymous]

This is spiraling out of control. Russia is losing and is now pushing for a farcical referendum for 'independence'. If it passes, Putin will then claim that NATO weapons are being used to attack Russia soil directly, which gives him pretexts to unleash the full might of the military, or worse yet, a reason to start using nukes because NATO is 'attacking' Russian soil. It is a joke of course, but if the referendum passes it will lead to extremely dangerous brinkmanship that really could escalate to nukes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So what will be the response now that Russia announced the referendums to annex parts of Ukraine?

I am the one who asked the question. It’s genuine. Are there going to be any more sanctions, the terrible horrible awful sanctions?
Putin didn’t give the anticipated address to the nation. The new laws of the past couple days make it easier to mobilize people but it doesn’t make sense to do it on a large scale - only to make sure those already recruited don’t desert.
I would like to know if it further affects everyday people - be it their ability to fly in and out of the country or buy some goods that were still being imported.
And also what it means in terms of further military actions.

One of the gossip streams circulating in Russia is that the referendum idea was heavily pushed by the provinces themselves for this reason: they are afraid of what Ukraine may do to them if and when this area is reconquered. A good chunk of the population did not really object to being a part of Russia, and they are afraid of being branded collaborationists and given to the special police.

Right, but no amount of referendums will stop Ukraine from advancing. Also I do not believe they would ask unless they knew the answer would be yes. What’s in it for Russia? Is it just a pretext for further mobilization? (I am surprised they need one but ok)
Or is there something else?

You don't know that it won't stop Ukraine from advancing. Ukraine's counteroffensive was talked up but it's not anywhere as ominous.

What's in it for Russia is that it repackages the war into a war of defense rather than war of offense.

And remember, Russia has to agree to take in these jurisdictions, it's not like it's automatic.

But I'm intrigued by his address tomorrow. I hope it's not general conscription.

99% sure it’s not general conscription.
I think you might be on to something saying it’s repackaging the war
But I repeat: no one would pop the question if they didn’t know the answer already

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is spiraling out of control. Russia is losing and is now pushing for a farcical referendum for 'independence'. If it passes, Putin will then claim that NATO weapons are being used to attack Russia soil directly, which gives him pretexts to unleash the full might of the military, or worse yet, a reason to start using nukes because NATO is 'attacking' Russian soil. It is a joke of course, but if the referendum passes it will lead to extremely dangerous brinkmanship that really could escalate to nukes.

This is correct.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It has to be general mobilization, otherwise Russia does not have enough soldiers to hold the territory.

Keep in mind that Ukraine is getting more and better weapons; Russia is losing its weapons and cannot produce replacements as fast as losses; and in some cases replace at all due to dependence on western technology.

Russia pivoting to war time manufacture status is a death sentence for the country. When your economy priority is military hardware that only has one purpose with no ROI to the economy.
This is exactly how Germany lost WW1; and France and England never even entered German territory.

General mobilization is impossible because they don’t have enough ammo for the conscripts
This is either bluffing to scare the west into not sending any more arms or as someone above said repackaging the war for his internal audience

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is spiraling out of control. Russia is losing and is now pushing for a farcical referendum for 'independence'. If it passes, Putin will then claim that NATO weapons are being used to attack Russia soil directly, which gives him pretexts to unleash the full might of the military, or worse yet, a reason to start using nukes because NATO is 'attacking' Russian soil. It is a joke of course, but if the referendum passes it will lead to extremely dangerous brinkmanship that really could escalate to nukes.

Isn’t unleashing the nukes like the ultimate step? Why does it need a pretext. Nobody will care for it anyway.
He might be bluffing though

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is spiraling out of control. Russia is losing and is now pushing for a farcical referendum for 'independence'. If it passes, Putin will then claim that NATO weapons are being used to attack Russia soil directly, which gives him pretexts to unleash the full might of the military, or worse yet, a reason to start using nukes because NATO is 'attacking' Russian soil. It is a joke of course, but if the referendum passes it will lead to extremely dangerous brinkmanship that really could escalate to nukes.

Well that would end badly for russia. What would be the point of that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is spiraling out of control. Russia is losing and is now pushing for a farcical referendum for 'independence'. If it passes, Putin will then claim that NATO weapons are being used to attack Russia soil directly, which gives him pretexts to unleash the full might of the military, or worse yet, a reason to start using nukes because NATO is 'attacking' Russian soil. It is a joke of course, but if the referendum passes it will lead to extremely dangerous brinkmanship that really could escalate to nukes.

Isn’t unleashing the nukes like the ultimate step? Why does it need a pretext. Nobody will care for it anyway.
He might be bluffing though

The pretext gives a limited time for the wealthy west with more to lose than Russia to figure out how to let Russia win. It sucks that we have a vegetable running things.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is spiraling out of control. Russia is losing and is now pushing for a farcical referendum for 'independence'. If it passes, Putin will then claim that NATO weapons are being used to attack Russia soil directly, which gives him pretexts to unleash the full might of the military, or worse yet, a reason to start using nukes because NATO is 'attacking' Russian soil. It is a joke of course, but if the referendum passes it will lead to extremely dangerous brinkmanship that really could escalate to nukes.

Well that would end badly for russia. What would be the point of that?

They have a lot less to lose than the west. That’s the strategic upper hand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is spiraling out of control. Russia is losing and is now pushing for a farcical referendum for 'independence'. If it passes, Putin will then claim that NATO weapons are being used to attack Russia soil directly, which gives him pretexts to unleash the full might of the military, or worse yet, a reason to start using nukes because NATO is 'attacking' Russian soil. It is a joke of course, but if the referendum passes it will lead to extremely dangerous brinkmanship that really could escalate to nukes.

Isn’t unleashing the nukes like the ultimate step? Why does it need a pretext. Nobody will care for it anyway.
He might be bluffing though

Russia would use tactical nukes. It doesn’t have to be a warhead that’d decimate the entire planet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is spiraling out of control. Russia is losing and is now pushing for a farcical referendum for 'independence'. If it passes, Putin will then claim that NATO weapons are being used to attack Russia soil directly, which gives him pretexts to unleash the full might of the military, or worse yet, a reason to start using nukes because NATO is 'attacking' Russian soil. It is a joke of course, but if the referendum passes it will lead to extremely dangerous brinkmanship that really could escalate to nukes.

Isn’t unleashing the nukes like the ultimate step? Why does it need a pretext. Nobody will care for it anyway.
He might be bluffing though

The pretext gives a limited time for the wealthy west with more to lose than Russia to figure out how to let Russia win. It sucks that we have a vegetable running things.

Yeah that’s what I mean by bluffing
Joe won’t blink, for better or worse, though

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is spiraling out of control. Russia is losing and is now pushing for a farcical referendum for 'independence'. If it passes, Putin will then claim that NATO weapons are being used to attack Russia soil directly, which gives him pretexts to unleash the full might of the military, or worse yet, a reason to start using nukes because NATO is 'attacking' Russian soil. It is a joke of course, but if the referendum passes it will lead to extremely dangerous brinkmanship that really could escalate to nukes.

Isn’t unleashing the nukes like the ultimate step? Why does it need a pretext. Nobody will care for it anyway.
He might be bluffing though

Russia would use tactical nukes. It doesn’t have to be a warhead that’d decimate the entire planet.

Still bad for both Russia and Europe because radiation?
Not even mentioning Ukraine - nobody cares unfortunately

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is spiraling out of control. Russia is losing and is now pushing for a farcical referendum for 'independence'. If it passes, Putin will then claim that NATO weapons are being used to attack Russia soil directly, which gives him pretexts to unleash the full might of the military, or worse yet, a reason to start using nukes because NATO is 'attacking' Russian soil. It is a joke of course, but if the referendum passes it will lead to extremely dangerous brinkmanship that really could escalate to nukes.

Isn’t unleashing the nukes like the ultimate step? Why does it need a pretext. Nobody will care for it anyway.
He might be bluffing though

Russia would use tactical nukes. It doesn’t have to be a warhead that’d decimate the entire planet.

Still bad for both Russia and Europe because radiation?
Not even mentioning Ukraine - nobody cares unfortunately

Im sure Russia would drop leaflets like we did in Japan giving everybody time to evacuate.
They probably feel like what Harry Truman said. “It’s either us or them to die…I choose them”