Russia - civil war has broken out

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Putin's arrested Surovikin as a traitor and says he sided with Prigozhin.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Surovikin was one of the few people at the top of the Russian MoD who was running around trying to find ways to stop Prigozhin, he recorded a message to Wagner demanding they stand down, he sent attack helicopters to try and stop Wagner's convoy - none of the other Russian commands did any of that. Shoigu, Gerasimov and the rest fled, and were cowering in bunkers.

Very strange.

I was surprised at the NYT article. This was the obviously foreseeable result.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Putin's arrested Surovikin as a traitor and says he sided with Prigozhin.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Surovikin was one of the few people at the top of the Russian MoD who was running around trying to find ways to stop Prigozhin, he recorded a message to Wagner demanding they stand down, he sent attack helicopters to try and stop Wagner's convoy - none of the other Russian commands did any of that. Shoigu, Gerasimov and the rest fled, and were cowering in bunkers.

Very strange.

Because Prigozhin and Surovikin go way back and are friendly. Putin fears collusion. He prefers it when there's clear loathing between his generals/militia leaders/businessmen. Reduces probability of a coup, you see. It suited him that Prigozhin exhorted Shoigu to do better. Rivalry on the battlefield can be useful if it pushes both to max effort.

Also, Surovikin's body language was analyzed and people posted to say his video attempting to stop Prigo was very uncomfortable. So...

... who knows at this point. It's rather mysterious, but any way you slice it, Putin comes out looking weaker.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gee this all seems to have taken some of the wind out of the pro-Russia trolls' sails 😆

Because so far it’s been a nothingburger
Let’s see what comes next

Nothingburger?

One word. "smuta"

When a very strong dam or bridge is structurally unsound, it takes time to break. Prigozhin was the crack. But there are no repairs or building of other dams or bridges taking place to relieve the stress? If anything, the supports are being removed, one-by-one. When it does break, it's a violent event.

I think Russia is still on the road towards anarchy within two years.

Be patient. Just watch.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NYT is reporting that the former top Russian commander in Ukraine had advance knowledge of Prigozhin's rebellion, and may have helped him plan the logistics. There are also signs of support from other Russian generals.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html

Wow.

Wait. Just to oust Shoigu, who is despised by a lot of people?
... or for a real coup to oust Putin?!?

Because if it's the latter, Putin better watch his back. They're not done with him yet. On the other hand, Putin's been picking off oligarchs one by one, through various means, and Surovikin may be next. But he's just one man, and there's a whole lot of "them".

Thing is, surovikin isn't really an oligarch though.He's a respected general who earned the nickname of 'Armageddon' for his alleged propensity to rain down unspeakable levels of violence on opponents . If putin—through the FSB—chooses to off him, what are the chances that his loyalists choose not to retaliate?

But... where does that leave Putin, then, if he lets other powerful men make very significant decisions for him?

It smells like a "soft coup" from a group of generals in the army. World history tells us that's usually how coups happen, actually.

And then we have Russia governed by hardline, "Armageddon" generals???

Delightful.

So many people cheering for Putin's ouster don't realize just how good we have it. He governs in a very restrained manner, and reels in many of the more extreme elements in Russian society.

These people should note that disaffection with Putin is coming from the side that doesn't want to hold back as much.

Actually disaffection from Putin's moderate democratic opponents started years ago, PP, but those people went to jail.
You're correct that the only ones willing to use force are the hardliners right now.

However the WORST, for NATO and the world, is if the Russian Federation disintegrates into several lawless regions because no one is iron-fisted enough to take over. NATO has much experience in managing autocratic countries. If Russia staggers from autocrat to autocrat, we know how to deal with that. But if Russia melts down into partisan infighting with nuclear weaponry sold off to terrorists and juntas, then we may have an extinction scenario on our hands.

It's when a nuclear-capable autocrat's hold on power slips that things are at their most dangerous.
This is why every country has their eyes on this conflict right now.

The nuclear situation is a disaster

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin's arrested Surovikin as a traitor and says he sided with Prigozhin.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Surovikin was one of the few people at the top of the Russian MoD who was running around trying to find ways to stop Prigozhin, he recorded a message to Wagner demanding they stand down, he sent attack helicopters to try and stop Wagner's convoy - none of the other Russian commands did any of that. Shoigu, Gerasimov and the rest fled, and were cowering in bunkers.

Very strange.

I was surprised at the NYT article. This was the obviously foreseeable result.

Putin throwing people under the bus (or out of a window) was an obviously foreseeable result, I'm just baffled at how it was Surovikin. And why Putin is doubling down behind support of Shoigu (also curious: Gerasimov hasn't been seen since the revolt).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin's arrested Surovikin as a traitor and says he sided with Prigozhin.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Surovikin was one of the few people at the top of the Russian MoD who was running around trying to find ways to stop Prigozhin, he recorded a message to Wagner demanding they stand down, he sent attack helicopters to try and stop Wagner's convoy - none of the other Russian commands did any of that. Shoigu, Gerasimov and the rest fled, and were cowering in bunkers.

Very strange.

I was surprised at the NYT article. This was the obviously foreseeable result.

Putin throwing people under the bus (or out of a window) was an obviously foreseeable result, I'm just baffled at how it was Surovikin. And why Putin is doubling down behind support of Shoigu (also curious: Gerasimov hasn't been seen since the revolt).

Perhaps because Putin believes Shoigu is not a personal threat. Whereas more intelligent, obstreperous leaders are, and so when they begin to make too much noise, they're out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gee this all seems to have taken some of the wind out of the pro-Russia trolls' sails 😆

Because so far it’s been a nothingburger
Let’s see what comes next

Nothingburger?

One word. "smuta"

When a very strong dam or bridge is structurally unsound, it takes time to break. Prigozhin was the crack. But there are no repairs or building of other dams or bridges taking place to relieve the stress? If anything, the supports are being removed, one-by-one. When it does break, it's a violent event.

I think Russia is still on the road towards anarchy within two years.

Be patient. Just watch.

My naive heart wishes it weren’t just anarchy coming but I think you’re right.

[Anonymous]

Apparently we are inching closer to a planned Russian sabotage of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The Ukraine intelligence chief recently reported that Russians have completed all their preparations for a catastrophic failure of the plant, and that all they're waiting for is the right moment. One such moment might be when Ukrainians gain control of both banks of the Dnipro. Every event that helps Ukraine and/or hinders Russia, such as the recent Wagner mutiny, increases the risk that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant explodes.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18852

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Apparently we are inching closer to a planned Russian sabotage of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The Ukraine intelligence chief recently reported that Russians have completed all their preparations for a catastrophic failure of the plant, and that all they're waiting for is the right moment. One such moment might be when Ukrainians gain control of both banks of the Dnipro. Every event that helps Ukraine and/or hinders Russia, such as the recent Wagner mutiny, increases the risk that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant explodes.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18852

Moscow and it’s cost cutting under Soviet rule was the reason Chernobyl exploded and caused god knows how many deaths (yes, I know, the official count is 28-31, end of list) and now Moscow might do it again purely out of spite?

Any Republicans want to re-examine their support for Russia?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Apparently we are inching closer to a planned Russian sabotage of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The Ukraine intelligence chief recently reported that Russians have completed all their preparations for a catastrophic failure of the plant, and that all they're waiting for is the right moment. One such moment might be when Ukrainians gain control of both banks of the Dnipro. Every event that helps Ukraine and/or hinders Russia, such as the recent Wagner mutiny, increases the risk that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant explodes.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18852

Moscow and it’s cost cutting under Soviet rule was the reason Chernobyl exploded and caused god knows how many deaths (yes, I know, the official count is 28-31, end of list) and now Moscow might do it again purely out of spite?

Any Republicans want to re-examine their support for Russia?

It was not cost cutting but operational incompetence that caused Chernobyl.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Apparently we are inching closer to a planned Russian sabotage of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The Ukraine intelligence chief recently reported that Russians have completed all their preparations for a catastrophic failure of the plant, and that all they're waiting for is the right moment. One such moment might be when Ukrainians gain control of both banks of the Dnipro. Every event that helps Ukraine and/or hinders Russia, such as the recent Wagner mutiny, increases the risk that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant explodes.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18852

Moscow and it’s cost cutting under Soviet rule was the reason Chernobyl exploded and caused god knows how many deaths (yes, I know, the official count is 28-31, end of list) and now Moscow might do it again purely out of spite?

Any Republicans want to re-examine their support for Russia?

You say spite. I say desperation. But, same sad end.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin's arrested Surovikin as a traitor and says he sided with Prigozhin.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Surovikin was one of the few people at the top of the Russian MoD who was running around trying to find ways to stop Prigozhin, he recorded a message to Wagner demanding they stand down, he sent attack helicopters to try and stop Wagner's convoy - none of the other Russian commands did any of that. Shoigu, Gerasimov and the rest fled, and were cowering in bunkers.

Very strange.

I was surprised at the NYT article. This was the obviously foreseeable result.

Putin throwing people under the bus (or out of a window) was an obviously foreseeable result, I'm just baffled at how it was Surovikin. And why Putin is doubling down behind support of Shoigu (also curious: Gerasimov hasn't been seen since the revolt).

Perhaps because Putin believes Shoigu is not a personal threat. Whereas more intelligent, obstreperous leaders are, and so when they begin to make too much noise, they're out.

Shoigu is who got Putin into this mess with Prigo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin's arrested Surovikin as a traitor and says he sided with Prigozhin.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Surovikin was one of the few people at the top of the Russian MoD who was running around trying to find ways to stop Prigozhin, he recorded a message to Wagner demanding they stand down, he sent attack helicopters to try and stop Wagner's convoy - none of the other Russian commands did any of that. Shoigu, Gerasimov and the rest fled, and were cowering in bunkers.

Very strange.

I was surprised at the NYT article. This was the obviously foreseeable result.

Putin throwing people under the bus (or out of a window) was an obviously foreseeable result, I'm just baffled at how it was Surovikin. And why Putin is doubling down behind support of Shoigu (also curious: Gerasimov hasn't been seen since the revolt).

Perhaps because Putin believes Shoigu is not a personal threat. Whereas more intelligent, obstreperous leaders are, and so when they begin to make too much noise, they're out.

Shoigu is who got Putin into this mess with Prigo.

I certainly wouldn't put it like that. Prigo is a former felon, and is an opportunist with a violent militia responsible for multiple human rights abuses in Central African Republic, Syria and elsewhere. He has no business anywhere near power and influence. Shoigu didn't like him. Prigo tried to capture him and Gerasimov and was forced to switch plans when the FSB cottoned on to him.

He's the worst scum in the world and does not deserve to be assassinated by Putin. He needs to be hauled in front of the Hague court and publicly tried for his many crimes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin's arrested Surovikin as a traitor and says he sided with Prigozhin.

That makes absolutely no sense.

Surovikin was one of the few people at the top of the Russian MoD who was running around trying to find ways to stop Prigozhin, he recorded a message to Wagner demanding they stand down, he sent attack helicopters to try and stop Wagner's convoy - none of the other Russian commands did any of that. Shoigu, Gerasimov and the rest fled, and were cowering in bunkers.

Very strange.

I was surprised at the NYT article. This was the obviously foreseeable result.

Putin throwing people under the bus (or out of a window) was an obviously foreseeable result, I'm just baffled at how it was Surovikin. And why Putin is doubling down behind support of Shoigu (also curious: Gerasimov hasn't been seen since the revolt).

Perhaps because Putin believes Shoigu is not a personal threat. Whereas more intelligent, obstreperous leaders are, and so when they begin to make too much noise, they're out.

Shoigu is who got Putin into this mess with Prigo.

I certainly wouldn't put it like that. Prigo is a former felon, and is an opportunist with a violent militia responsible for multiple human rights abuses in Central African Republic, Syria and elsewhere. He has no business anywhere near power and influence. Shoigu didn't like him. Prigo tried to capture him and Gerasimov and was forced to switch plans when the FSB cottoned on to him.

He's the worst scum in the world and does not deserve to be assassinated by Putin. He needs to be hauled in front of the Hague court and publicly tried for his many crimes.

Eh. Who cares? Putin will kill him and probably use ancestry.com to kill anyone with some percentage of his dna.

Russians taking out russians is better than overpriced pay per view mma fights.

This like real housewives with death….hope it renews for a few more seasons. Great drama.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Apparently we are inching closer to a planned Russian sabotage of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The Ukraine intelligence chief recently reported that Russians have completed all their preparations for a catastrophic failure of the plant, and that all they're waiting for is the right moment. One such moment might be when Ukrainians gain control of both banks of the Dnipro. Every event that helps Ukraine and/or hinders Russia, such as the recent Wagner mutiny, increases the risk that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant explodes.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18852

Whenever an event like this is floated in the media, we need to ask a few questions.

The first is who benefits from this? What would Russia gain from detonating the plant? What would Ukraine?

The second is to ask how would Ukraine know these things?

Once you start asking these questions, it becomes pretty clear what is going on. Ukraine/NATO will blow the plant, and blame it on Russia. NATO will use that as a pretext to escalate involvement. It will be the modern Gulf of Tonkin, incubator babies, yellow cake, etc... all over again. The war mongers will do anything they can to get their war. You can hear them salivate when they talk about it.